Boeing estimates the new aircraft market will be worth $8 trillion over the next two decades as air travel demand outpaces economic growth.
Released in the margins of the 2023 Paris Air Show, the US aerospace manufacturer’s latest market outlook projects a global demand for 42,595 new commercial aircraft by 2042 (including more than 32,000 narrowbodies) with airlines anticipated to replace around half of the current global fleet with new, more efficient models.
“The aviation industry has demonstrated resilience and adaptability after unprecedented disruption, with airlines responding to challenges, simplifying their fleets, improving efficiency and capitalizing on resurgent demand," said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of commercial sales and marketing. “Looking to the future of air travel, our 2023 CMO [commercial market outlook] reflects further evolution of passenger traffic tied to global growth of the middle class, investments in sustainability, continued growth for low-cost carriers, and air cargo demand to serve evolving supply chains and express cargo delivery.”
Boeing predicts strong regional growth over the next 20 years, including in Asia-Pacific which it expects will account for more than 40% of the global demand going forward (half of this will be China alone). Fastest growth is expected to be in South Asia where its collective fleet is anticipated to grow 7% annually, with India accounting for more than 90% of the region’s passenger traffic. Around 20% of the projected growth will reportedly come from Europe, and another 20% from North America, while low-cost carriers are also expected to operate over 40% of the single-aisle fleet in 2042, up from 10% in 2003.
The CMO also details the forecasts the new aircraft market by category; Boeing projects the need for 1,810 regional jets. 32,420 single aisle, 7,440 widebodies and 925 freighters over the next two decades.
Future related ancillary markets, such as parts and supply chain solutions, maintenance and modifications, and pilot and technician training, are valued at $3.8 trillion over the same period.