Chinese air power thread 18

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It is close enough data that we can assume a few things. Anyone with eyes can see that its a rather big aircraft

What is your approximate guess though ? Do you believe that its shorter than the Pak Fa >?>

As I've said numerous times in this forum, based on both the statistical spread of numerous other attempts using other methods to identify the J-20's length and my own estimation ranges (I tried multiple assumptions), I think the J-20 is probably about 20-20.5 meters long. In all likelihoods that is longer than the PAK-FA, but not by much.

As for weight (the actual thing we care about in terms of "bigness" on planes)...I wouldn't even dare make an attempt. Cross sectional area is tricky. You could say that x has roughly the same cross section as y, but roughly could be off by say a square meter, which becomes a much bigger difference multipled over the length of a plane. Furthermore, it's incredibly difficult to eyeball even rough comparisons. We are cognitively biased to think "thick" boxes have more area than "thin" boxes. The PAK-FA looks thin and the J-20 looks boxy. However, it's entirely plausible that the PAK-FA simply distributes its cross sectional area more evenly across its span, but we wouldn't know without hard measurements. This doesn't even begin to consider factors like density or internal composition. The PAK-FA is supposed to receive significant weight reduction from extensive use of composites. The J-20 is supposed to have a titanium frame that's 40% lighter than the F-22's due to additive manufacturing methods. Do I believe any of those claims? I don't know what to believe, so we'll just have to wait and see.

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As I've said numerous times in this forum, based on both the statistical spread of numerous other attempts using other methods to identify the J-20's length and my own estimation ranges (I tried multiple assumptions), I think the J-20 is probably about 20-20.5 meters long. In all likelihoods that is longer than the PAK-FA, but not by much.

thank you, its quite obvious it is 20 meters!
You are also 100% correct that some Russian aviation fanboys have this air of supremacy about themselves and can't admit that China has caught up or even surpassed MiG or Sukhoi in many fields.
Russia and China are allies. China is the only one who stood by Russia when the west turned its back. China is the one keeping Russia's economy afloat. Please be more respectful of your big brother.

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It is dishonest to claim the J-20 is any length without also acknowledging we actually don't know. Regardless of the reasons we think it's 19 meters or 23 meters, these are all estimations. No one should have any confidence to assert a categorical claim here.

Not that I have a personal dog in this fight (I'm American, actually), but your second paragraph reeks of a "We're friends only if you think I'm superior mentality". If I were a Russian nationalist I'd worry about blind spots....

It is dishonest to claim the J-20 is any length without also acknowledging we actually don't know. Regardless of the reasons we think it's 19 meters or 23 meters, these are all estimations. No one should have any confidence to assert a categorical claim here.

The F-35 is bigger than the J 20. That's my claim and nobody should have any confidence to assert any other categorical claim here.

^ Is that the game you really want to play ?


Not that I have a personal dog in this fight (I'm American, actually), but your second paragraph reeks of a "We're friends only if you think I'm superior mentality". If I were a Russian nationalist I'd worry about blind spots....

Haha I couldn't imagine how you, as an American, would feel if Britain was building its own stealth 5th gen aircraft and the Britain fans would not only claim to be further ahead than you in fighter jet expertise but also claim that you, the US, should consider buying the British aircraft because it is superior to the Raptor. All the while, you are providing Britain all of the engines for said aircraft.

You would be tearing your hair out.

I am just politely implying that the whole proposition is laughably ridiculous.

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The F-35 is bigger than the J 20. That's my claim and nobody should have any confidence to assert any other categorical claim here.

^ Is that the game you really want to play ?


No, but that wasn't my point. My point is against certainty without sound, strongly supported reason.


Haha I couldn't imagine how you, as an American, would feel if Britain was building its own stealth 5th gen aircraft and the Britain fans would not only claim to be further ahead than you in fighter jet expertise but also claim that you, the US, should consider buying the British aircraft because it is superior to the Raptor. All the while, you are providing Britain all of the engines for said aircraft.

You would be tearing your hair out.

I am just politely implying that the whole proposition is laughably ridiculous.

I wouldn't, actually. I'm not a believer in nationalism.

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thank you, its quite obvious it is 20 meters!
You are also 100% correct that some Russian aviation fanboys have this air of supremacy about themselves and can't admit that China has caught up or even surpassed MiG or Sukhoi in many fields.
Russia and China are allies. China is the only one who stood by Russia when the west turned its back. China is the one keeping Russia's economy afloat. Please be more respectful of your big brother.

Here he is tossing in total malarkey about Russia's economy again. Then I will put to rest all of these wrong headed claims and then get accused of "chest pumping" for the Russian economy.

As for the rest of the post; wake me up when China stops crawling to Russia to buy engines. It is such a ridiculous claim that its not even worth accessing until China can power its own fighters.

And the Russian engines of the J20 would probably slip most peoples minds if the China fans picked a real enemy

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No, but that wasn't my point. My point is against certainty without sound, strongly supported reason.

I wouldn't, actually. I'm not a believer in nationalism.

No, but that wasn't my point.

But that is your point. On one hand, you want to defer to common sense for my claim about the F 35. And on the other, you claim that no conclusion can be reached.

I wouldn't, actually. I'm not a believer in nationalism.

Nationalism has nothing to do with it. If someone shorter than you, made fun of you for being short and claimed to know more about being tall than you, you'd be conflicted and perturbed by it.

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Here he is tossing in total malarkey about Russia's economy again. Then I will put to rest all of these wrong headed claims and then get accused of "chest pumping" for the Russian economy.

As for the rest of the post; wake me up when China stops crawling to Russia to buy engines. It is such a ridiculous claim that its not even worth accessing until China can power its own fighters.

And the Russian engines of the J20 would probably slip most peoples minds if the China fans picked a real enemy

Engines aside, Russia imports far more from China and relies a lot on Exports to China for its GDP. for China, Russia is only a small part of both import and export.
China has some new engines coming out that will end the need for Russian engines, the last area where it imports from Russia.

China fans don't care about Russia beyond its Russian fan boys.
China's enemy has been and always been Japan and lately, South Korea.

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Alert 5 has another photo

http://alert5.com/2016/10/22/caught-on-camera-jh-7-crashes-today/#more-58434

there's only a handful of jh7s..200-300 yet more than 4-5 crashes
in comparison the Mirage 2000 has around 600 built and only 2-3 crashes. Almost all in Indian service.

time to withdraw the jh-7. the Su-30 clones already do its job, and better.

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there's only a handful of jh7s..200-300 yet more than 4-5 crashes
in comparison the Mirage 2000 has around 600 built and only 2-3 crashes. Almost all in Indian service.

time to withdraw the jh-7. the Su-30 clones already do its job, and better.

I did a quick search for Mirage 2000 crashes, and came up with this?
http://www.ejection-history.org.uk/Aircraft_by_Type/Mirage_2000/mirage_2000.htm

Not sure about the full accuracy of the list... but a quick search does show quite a few news reports of Mirage 2000 crashes, some in ROC service, some in Greek service, some French, some UAE, so at any rate the actual Mirage 2000 crashes I think is quite a bit higher than 2-3, and the crashes aren't only in IAF service.
And considering Mirage 2000 has been built in large numbers and in service for quite a few decades, that kind of crash/accident rate is pretty normal.

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But that is your point. On one hand, you want to defer to common sense for my claim about the F 35. And on the other, you claim that no conclusion can be reached.

If I claimed no conclusion can be reached I wouldn't have made my own claims. Don't confuse being modest and reasonable about one's conclusions with not drawing any conclusions at all.


Nationalism has nothing to do with it. If someone shorter than you, made fun of you for being short and claimed to know more about being tall than you, you'd be conflicted and perturbed by it.

No, I wouldn't. I'm not so ego sensitive.

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Engines aside, Russia imports far more from China and relies a lot on Exports to China for its GDP. for China, Russia is only a small part of both import and export.
China has some new engines coming out that will end the need for Russian engines, the last area where it imports from Russia.

China fans don't care about Russia beyond its Russian fan boys.
China's enemy has been and always been Japan and lately, South Korea.

China imports far more important stuff from Russia. when you look at the whole picture of importance.
Chinese uranium centrifuge and nuclear reactor is based on Russian tech. C919 titanim is from Russia. only Russian provide the cheapest fresh air and water.

Chinese has to compete with SKorea and Japan/Vietnam for Russian market. there is ramazan kadyrov that time to time attract surplus capital from middleast.


http://www.asianmetal.com/metal_cron/index_lunshi_leirangqi_en.shtml

The above data show that profits of China’s titanium enterprises are a bit higher than Japan’s enterprises but far below those of US and Russian companies, and profits of Russian enterprises are higher than US titanium companies.

For reasons of the above conclusion, almost 80% of titanium materials are applied for aerospace and military industry with high added value in Russia, and profits of Japan’s titanium products are mainly for civil use with few profits despite perfectly manufacturing and high exports. Product structure decides profits, and profits of products with cutting-edge technology or for high end market are high.

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there's only a handful of jh7s..200-300 yet more than 4-5 crashes
in comparison the Mirage 2000 has around 600 built and only 2-3 crashes. Almost all in Indian service.

time to withdraw the jh-7. the Su-30 clones already do its job, and better.

dear....not again.. where have so called 'western style' preciseness and Prudence gone? although someone would cover for you with those beautiful words, somehow the 'tail' well hided would be exposed time to time

and loads of stupid baseless statements have ruined this thread and forum ...I was a little surprised that those living in the largest 'country' would have such a little mind...lol

http://bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Database/Accidents/listing.php --- those only in IAF

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I did a quick search for Mirage 2000 crashes, and came up with this?
http://www.ejection-history.org.uk/Aircraft_by_Type/Mirage_2000/mirage_2000.htm

Not sure about the full accuracy of the list... but a quick search does show quite a few news reports of Mirage 2000 crashes, some in ROC service, some in Greek service, some French, some UAE, so at any rate the actual Mirage 2000 crashes I think is quite a bit higher than 2-3, and the crashes aren't only in IAF service.
And considering Mirage 2000 has been built in large numbers and in service for quite a few decades, that kind of crash/accident rate is pretty normal.

i think you are correct. mirage 2000 is a more dangerous plane.

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i think you are correct. mirage 2000 is a more dangerous plane.

I think there is a less colourful way of saying it, like "mirage 2000 has had more accidents than you initially thought, but the accident rate should not be unexpected given the number of mirage 2000 aircraft that have been produced and it's overall length of service".

Saying one plane is more "dangerous" than the other can present the opportunity for unnecessary disagreement, especially on this forum.

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Engines aside, Russia imports far more from China and relies a lot on Exports to China for its GDP. for China, Russia is only a small part of both import and export.
China has some new engines coming out that will end the need for Russian engines, the last area where it imports from Russia.

China fans don't care about Russia beyond its Russian fan boys.
China's enemy has been and always been Japan and lately, South Korea.

I refrain from responding to his mutterings about the economy.

He addresses zero of the points I made about the subject at hand and reverts back to talking about..... the... economy.

Then he will say that my silence is just proof that the Russian economy blah blah blah.

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I think there is a less colourful way of saying it, like "mirage 2000 has had more accidents than you initially thought, but the accident rate should not be unexpected given the number of mirage 2000 aircraft that have been produced and it's overall length of service".

Saying one plane is more "dangerous" than the other can present the opportunity for unnecessary disagreement, redirector on this forum.

Where do the engines for the Mirage 2000 come from ?

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Where do the engines for the Mirage 2000 come from ?

M53s are French, obviously. I'm not sure what that has to do with anything?

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wow, omg, what happened to this thread. its all about russia vs china again.