By: Anonymous
- 30th June 2014 at 19:42Permalink- Edited 10th April 2020 at 19:36
Boeing has released this communication to all operators :
The reference Multi-Operator Messages provide Boeing's previous fleet communications on the subject event. Boeing, the United States National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the United Kingdom Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB), the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB), the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), the operator and other organizations continue to actively support the government of Malaysia's investigation into the event.
From previous reports, the responsibility for the search effort is being led by the ATSB whereas the ICAO Annex 13 investigation effort continues to be led by the Malaysian Ministry of Transport (MOT). Under the direction of the US NTSB, Boeing is continuing to support both the search effort and the Annex 13 investigation.
Under the direction of the ATSB, the Australian Joint Agency Coordination Center (JACC) has released a report which updates and outlines the search effort and provides details of the search history along with the plan for the future. The JACC's media statement and the report can be found on the JCAA's website:
As outlined in the ATSB's report, the search for MH370 is particularly challenging given the duration of flight since the last known position and the unique challenges of using the very limited information available from the satellite communication logs. Because of this, the ATSB elected to make certain assumptions about potential event scenarios in order to define a search area. The ATSB points out that their assumptions concerning potential scenarios are strictly for the purpose of defining the search area, are not supported by any independent evidence, and do not constitute a conclusion by the Malaysian authorities conducting the primary investigation into the cause of the accident.
Boeing has no recommended operator action at this time. If the investigation shows any specific actions are recommended or required, operators will be notified.
Chief Engineer - Air Safety Investigation
The Boeing Company
By: TomcatViP
- 30th June 2014 at 20:46Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Concerning that excellent report (that I've read), I still have some interrogation that puzzle me:
- If they consider in their hypothesis that flight was at a cte alt for the cruise pattern it only means that they understand that the plane was on an "alt hold" regime, probablywith auto-pilot on from start.
Cruise regime impart a parabolic profile with the weight of the plane going down, the plane climb until it reaches an other equilibrium btw weight, lift, drag and speed.
- Why didn't they cross checked the hydrophonic data recorded with that of the search patterns ? I understand that both patterns doesn't match but hydropnonic records varies greatly with temp and density. As sea bed mapping was lacking in precision in this zone, this lack of knowledge shld have compensate for the drift of the zone where an "event" was recorded.
- Manual phone calls have generated two points of data that are now useful for the search. Wouldn't it be interesting to recommend this being practiced in the future for the sake of latter forensic search ?
- The report mentions teh search for noise of a fuselage implosion but if the fuselage have been breached (in-flight fire, decompression, explosion, crash at sea which remains parts of the most plausible hypothesis), there is no implosion. Water fills gradually the fuselage and there is a pressure equilibrium. It's hard to think that the plane went at sea with a full hull integrity. This is not a ship heavily loaded. This is a light aluminium structure optimized for internal volume.
New
By: Anonymous
- 1st July 2014 at 20:34Permalink- Edited 10th April 2020 at 19:36
This thing about the autopilot, particularly from the media who, because of their sensationalism, make it appear that autopilot operations are the exception rather than the rule....
These days all modern airliners are flown on autopilot from shortly after takeoff to landing, with a few exceptions. I once flew the 727 without autopilot on two 2 hour sectors and it is very tiring. The autopilot was inoperative but not required by the MEL so the company dispatched the flight.
In order to maintain manual flying skills, we periodically hand-fly departures and approaches so as not to end up in the same situation as Asiana. But generally the entire flight is conducted on autopilot.
By: TomcatViP
- 9th July 2014 at 05:05Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
[...]
In order to maintain manual flying skills, we periodically hand-fly departures and approaches so as not to end up in the same situation as Asiana. But generally the entire flight is conducted on autopilot.
That's why mandatory flight hours in single engines aircraft in IFR cld help maintain proficiency.
For example, a pilot on a 3 day rest, might be asked to get one flight hour during that time. Wherever he is doing that (he is on leaves so he might get the chance not to be stuck around an airport!), with light monitoring device, his efficiency during that "test" flight can be monitored by body carried sensor (a wrist belt linked to his smartphone and then sent back for analysis during the Commercial flight.
But in teh case of MH370, Pilots proficiency are certainly not in cause. I am more on the AF447 with that idea.
By: nJayM
- 21st August 2014 at 09:35Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
This is psychologically cruel to those left possibly bereaved in as yet unsubstantiated statements in a book -
"This the joint theory of veteran commercial pilot Ewan Wilson and investigative journalist Geoff Taylor, whose book Good Night Malaysian 370: The Truth Behind The Loss Of Flight 370, was released last month."
By: TomcatViP
- 31st August 2014 at 06:38Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Since we have seen disrespectful journalist writing strange theories based on groundless accusation and still meeting the light of the international press, I feel like we should restart the discussion around what could have happened to help feed the press with hypothesis really based on facts.
On this first one, I will restart the hypo around runaway batteries. See here
When I first wrote about this one, I have to say that I wasn't expecting full agreement with that theo since, Li Batteries are flying every day, every where in the world and carried often close to body contact.
If we had to see a runaway case incapacitating passengers, this would have been already hapening and the industry would have taken the bull by the horns since long (Apple batteries comes into mind).
Then I had a close look at the manifest. And here it comes.
[ATTACH=CONFIG]231381[/ATTACH]
As we can see, there are 133 items of one sort and 67 of another. Weights of items are respectively 1990 kg and 463.
If we make a simple division we see that elements weight are 14kg and 8kg (see manifest above- tag 1).
This seems to be much to high for a normal Li-battery pack. And as was alrdy said, a battery for general consumer product will unlikely see a catastrophic thermal runway in a plane given that they are widely used product. The incident case could not have been restricted only to MH370.
However, Li Batteries are not solely used in general consumer product. Given their performances and high voltage capacity they are sensitive product for the defense industry. Especially when it comes to be an alternate power source for diesel submarines silently making their way deep undersea or surface navies that needs increasingly discreet operating ship in coastal waters.
If we look at some of the battery pack used in this industry, we can see that such batteries are build to be modular and packed in specific encasing device adapted in shape, control requirement and safety to their targeted usage. They generally comes with their adapted charger that have an according capacity and a compatible shape.
In this example, I will use the products marketed by SAFT*, a Fr company working globally for a wide range of users (civil and military).
This kind of batteries have safety operational procedure defined by their operator. Some are intended for air deployment (air freight). Some are not. Here is a memo from the US Navy. Great emphasis is made around thermal runway risk and hazardous gases emissions.
On the Manifest, we can see (tag 2) that the dimensions and weight are fairly comparable (Total weigh 1990 divided by 58 packing unit equate 34kg) to the product of the Company. SAFT being a leader in its market, I have no doubt that similar dimensions are more or less the norm. Any serious study would have to assess this fact.
So, to summarize, the general idea of this post is that a fairly large battery module designed to operate undersea or on the surface at pressure ranging from atmospheric (ground level) to sub sea level (high pressure) could have been the cause of a the thermal runaway with the pressure decreasing as the plane went-up and the pressure in the cargo-bay falling to a lower value that what the enclosure was designed to sustain in normal operation (see post from the 3rd of May):
What we may conclude is that the crew and passengers might have been incapacitated by the toxic gazes (arsenic) or had to face a rapidly growing fire in the cargo bay with heavy smokes (plastics and carbon) and high temperature (lithium).
If such a sensitive battery was transported in the cargo bay of an airliner, it would certainly have to be rendered non-identifiable to be carried without trouble from one country to another. Removing the specific encasing container and parting its elements could have been the method used by non qualified personnel.
What such a device did in that plane under that hypothesis, is however beyond my rational reach tonight.
Never mind batteries the said author claims that initially the MA authorities stated on the cargo manifest that the plane was carrying mangosteens and no batteries. (Purple/brown hard outer with white edible bulbs and some large seeds)
Also print output of last dialogue by flight crew with ATC is in book. There too the author conjectures that it was an unusual way (not his usual) the first officer made his last transmission.
This is highly irregular/irresponsible authoring with no hard facts of the aircraft location (intact/debris).
The anguished people waiting for news of what actually happened look as if they will have a tortuous and long time waiting for the aircraft to be found.
By: Kiwiguy
- 6th September 2014 at 12:40Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Which unfortunately may well be the case.
The real problem is they began with several false assumptions chief amongst which that it turned west from IGARI and flew through the Straits of Malacca.
The Duncan Steel group are experts in satellites and orbital dynamics, with no insight to aviation. They took as read that MH370 was last seen on radar at MEKAR north of Aceh and then began making vector additions from that location.
The Malaysian Government said a military radar at Butterworth tracked an unknown target flying over Pelau Perak, waypoint VAMPI and was last seen at MEKAR. The screenshot however is taken from a civilian SSR display:
[ATTACH=CONFIG]231504[/ATTACH]
The military radar at Butterworth is a Thales Raytheon GM400 and this is what the screen of a Malaysian GM400 set looks like:
[ATTACH=CONFIG]231505[/ATTACH]
It was never seen on radar flying to MEKAR. Indonesians at Lhoksumwae saw the same airspace and did not see the target which Malaysia claimed to track. Their claim is a hoax. The track plotted from MEKAR to the Indian Ocean uses vector addition from this position near MEKAR and the reason why it makes no sense is because MH370 was never at MEKAR.
By: Kiwiguy
- 6th September 2014 at 13:13Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
If MH370 flew from MEKAR the autopilot would have to have flown a magnetic heading and that being the case in the 5 hours and 49 minutes remaining until the last satellite ping at 00;11 UTC if flown on a magnetic heading would have overshot the Southern Arc by a large margin.
Only a deliberate conscious action programming a final co-ordinate on the southern arc could result in the autopilot flying a great circle route and why exactly would anybody program the autopilot to fly to that specific point?
What it actually proves is the entire nonsense of all these weighty calculations by satellite experts and orbital physics boffins. The reason why the actual behaviour of an autopilot does not correlate with all these vector additions by the Duncan Steel group is because MH370 never flew south from MEKAR
By: nJayM
- 6th September 2014 at 15:29Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Unlike the more than likely fiction/ likely theories in the books by authors making more than a 'killing' in proceeds these reports are telling of the anguish of those left in the complete 'dark'.
My heart and I am sure the hearts of many of you on this forum will go out to these people left in a complete psychological mire due to the lack of real evidence ie as yet a complete aircraft intact or as debris.
"MH370: After six months of limbo, families of missing passengers are increasingly angry
China is making life difficult for grieving relatives still desperate for news of Malaysia Airlines plane that vanished
Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday 61-year-old Dai Shuqin takes a two-hour bus trip to a drab biscuit-coloured building on the northern outskirts of Beijing.
For six months she has been trapped in limbo, sleep-deprived and with little appetite, since three generations of her sister's family vanished on board Flight MH370.
So she returns again and again to this building, a "support centre" that was set up in May after Malaysia Airlines stopped paying for the families to stay in the Lido Hotel in the city centre.
Dozens of other relatives in China have fallen into the same weekly routine, drawn to this focal point for their grief.
Each time they are asked to fill out forms with their names and the names of their loved ones. In a box underneath, they can write questions which will never be answered.
In a cruel twist, the centre is directly beneath the flight path of Beijing airport. As they sit together waiting for news, they have to listen to planes roaring overhead every few seconds.
"Sometimes there are 100 of us in there," said Ms Dai. "But the room is small and they refuse to provide any water or food. Although it has been a hot summer only the staff offices are air-conditioned.
"They never answer any questions. Every time they say the same thing: 'We are searching really hard. We are more anxious than you. The Chinese government has put a lot of effort into it.'
"They say it every time. It drives us crazy, literally crazy. Sometimes the families think they are going to break down."
As the saga of Flight MH370 drags on, the relatives have become at best a nuisance and at worst a threat to the brittle patina of "social stability" that the Communist party insists upon.
So the centre is carefully watched. As we approached it one day last week, security guards rushed to block the entrance and a senior policeman in plain clothes emerged to escort us from the surrounding industrial park.
"They put the support centre out here, in the middle of nowhere, so that our voices could not be heard," said Ms Dai. "And it is only open Monday to Friday during working hours, so anyone with a job cannot come."
Anyone who fails to keep a close grip on their emotions faces the wrath of the authorities, she added.
"Once a woman and her father-in-law unfurled a protest banner. But afterwards when the woman went to fetch something from her car, plain clothes policemen snatched her away. Her father-in-law was followed into the bathroom, seized and taken away. Later, when we called the police, they said they had been detained," she said.
On another occasion, at the beginning of July, a group of relatives who had travelled to Beijing from the countryside were arrested for trying to sleep at the centre.
"These people were farmers. Many of them stopped working after MH370 disappeared and sold their land for money. When they came to the support centre they asked if they could stay to save on their costs. But the police arrested them. They even dragged a six-year-old kid from his father and threw him in the back of the police van," said Ms Dai.
Other relatives said they shot videos of the arrests on their mobile phones, but that the footage mysteriously disappeared from their phones a few hours later.
"All the families who go to the centre now are scared. Every time before I go I tell my family that if they cannot reach me when they call it means I am in trouble. The others all do the same thing."
The relatives are keen to mark, on September 8, the six months since the disappearance of the plane. But they have been unable so far to find a venue brave enough to host them.
"All the family members would say the situation now is worse," said Jack Song, whose sister Song Chunling was on board MH370.
"It was very sad when we were in the hotel and everyone cried, but at least we could help each other and we formed different groups, a negotiating group, a technical study group, a group to deal with the media and so on. We supported each other.
"Now everyone lives a long way away and there are no channels for them to get any information. Without any information, you feel very helpless," he added.
Chat groups have sprung up on Chinese social media. Instead of the support centre, Mr Song is trapped by his habit of endlessly checking his mobile phone for updates.
"I cannot focus on anything else," he said. "I look at my WeChat account every few minutes. Just in the two hours we have been talking, there have been 35 new messages from relatives."
With no conclusive evidence of the plane's demise, most of the Chinese relatives will not openly say that their loved ones are dead, even if they accept there is little hope.
The Malaysian authorities, they point out, have not even released the closed circuit television footage of passengers boarding the plane, allowing many to desperately cling on to the hope that somehow their relatives were not on board.
Most are also furious at the conduct of Malaysia and Malaysia Airlines, who they say have treated them with little respect and refused to release key information that would help them come to terms with their loss.
They also wonder why Boeing and Inmarsat, the satellite company whose information has been key to the effort to track the plane's movements, have not directly opened up their data to the public.
"If you want to work out where the plane is, you need to know the wind speed, the speed of the plane and the position of the satellite," said Jiang Hui, a 41-year-old telecommunications engineer whose mother was on board. "They have not released any of that data to us. And they have not shared the algorithm they used for their analysis
"I cannot understand why they are so reluctant to share. The way that the Malaysian government has delayed everything from the very beginning and made everything chaotic is very difficult for me to understand. It makes me think there is something going on behind the scenes, but I do not know what."
Martin Dolan, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) chief who is heading the search, said he understood the scepticism but insisted that investigators were trying to be as transparent as possible with the families.
"Our message to them is that a range of world experts is working together with a single focus of finding this aircraft and solving the mystery of its disappearance. They should have confidence in the work that is being done because it is being done meticulously and we are progressively publishing the results of that work so that other experts can test it and debate it and form views about it.
"We are not trying to hide anything. It is just that we do not want to publish things until we have done the work and therefore have something we are confident in. We are trying to be as open as we can."
The ATSB put out a 58-page report on June 26 on its website and updated it on Aug 18.
Mr Song said the families would keep petitioning the companies until there was some resolution. "People feel angry and helpless. At least two or three of the elderly relatives have passed away. Lots of the passengers were the breadwinners for their families, so there are economic problems.
"MH370 changed my life completely, and the lives of all of the relatives. Many are now on the verge of collapse." "
The FAA reports, that lithium metal batteries are highly flammable and capable of ignition. Ignition can occur when batteries are being overcharged, short circuits, is exposed to heat, is being mishandled or is otherwise defective. Once a cell is induced into thermal runaway by internal failure or external means (like heating or physical damage), it generates sufficient heat to cause adjacent cell into thermal runway, too. The thermal runaway of a lithium metal cell creates an even more severe event than the thermal runaway of a lithium-ion cell because the lithium metall cell releases a flammable electrolyte mixed with molten lithium metal accompanied by a large pressure pulse. The combination of electrolyte and molten lithium metal can result in an explosive mixture.
On top of that the current fire suppression agent Halon 1301 found in class C cargo compartments is inefficient in controlling a lithium metal cell fire.
The explosive potential of the lithium metal cell can perforate the cargo liners or activate the pressure relief panels in a cargo compartment causing the loss of Halon 1301 allowing a rapid fire spread within the cargo compartment.
For these reasons lithium metal cells are prohibited to be carried as bulk cargo shipments on passenger carrying aircraft.
it might no be related but...
Surveying the Aircraft incident report give more clue to this hypothesis with smell of burn in cabin and cockpit, loss of aircraft primary systems system or loss of consciousness in GA aircraft (TBM 900 and Cirrus)
Example:
....5th of sept : TBM900 + Thomas Cook A320 near Brussels on Sep 5th 2014, strange smell in cockpit and cabin
....4th of sept : Cirrus
...1st of Sept: Jetblue A320 over Atlantic on Sep 1st 2014, smoke in cockpit + burning smell
...31st of August: KLM Cityhopper F70 near Amsterdam on Aug 31st 2014, odour on board
... 27th of august: White AT72 at Lisbon, smoke in cabin + burning smell
...11th of April: A319 at Frankfurt, smoke in cockpit
... 8th of april: A319 near Cologne, Elmo's fire and loss of all instruments
Li Battery are now integrated in avionics panel such as for example the L-3 Trilogy ESI-2000 backup instrument with integral backup battery in the TBM 900
The potentiality of a malfunction or a faulty quality of one of the cell is increased by the dissemination and multiplication of the number of battery. Satisfactory Environment control during the design is also a weak point with non-standardized implementation.
By: Kiwiguy
- 7th September 2014 at 15:09Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
A friend of mine Denise Wong corresponded with oil rig worker Mike McKay who abandoned the previously published email address. I have read his reply to her and he clarified that he saw an aircraft on fire for 10-15 seconds with a bright orange flame on the left side. (left side from his vantage as he could not understand if it was flying towards him or away - I assume it was making a turn to starboard over Con Son Island with flames down the port side)
That excludes any possibility of a Lithium battery fire since Lithium burns violet, not orange.
Also McKay said he saw the flames self-extinguish on the aircraft which he saw off Vietnam. This is precisely what one would expect from an aircraft with a cabin fire venting through a hole melted in the cabin wall.
Lithium batteries on the other hand generate self-sustaining exothermic reactions which would not self extinguish at 35,000ft.
There was a fire on MH370, which started inside a pressurised cabin. It had nothing to do with Lithium batteries. Once the aircraft had depressurised it could only fly by autopilot in a straight line on a magnetic heading in the direction it was last pointing.
[ATTACH=CONFIG]231551[/ATTACH]
That excludes any possibility that it flew an intricate zig-zag path back through the Straits of Malacca and then turned south around the tip of Sumatra. That never happened.
That it emitted the last satellite handshake ping at 00:11 UTC on the Southern Arc is not in dispute.
What has no credibility is the claim it was flown deliberately through the Straits of Malacca then turned South.
What is credible is that it suffered a cabin fire at high altitude after pilots had tried to turn the plane back from Vietnam.
[ATTACH=CONFIG]231550[/ATTACH]
Attachments
New
Posts: 2,748
By: snafu
- 8th September 2014 at 15:57Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Nice run through the various theories on the BBC News website today...
Six months after the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370 it is still the subject of a slew of explanations. Why has this tragedy prompted such a wave of conspiracy theories?
Sudden, dramatic events often provoke conspiracy theories - particularly where the official version is disbelieved. Think JFK, Princess Diana, 9/11.
But in the case of MH370 there is not even an official version. Nobody knows what happened to MH370. It's a modern mystery...
battery powering MH370’s flight data recorder’s underwater locator beacon, which will send a signal if a crash occurs in the water, had expired in December 2012 and was not replaced. This was because the engineering department’s computer system was not properly updated.
Also:
The Indonesian air traffic control radar in Medan, in the northern tip of Sumatra island, did not pick up MH370 "for unknown reasons".
It's really concerning that such a software was seemingly used un-updated for that amount of time. It cast doubt on the safety standards on both the company and the software editor. The doubts also are tick around the potential dissemination of similar deficiencies.
Money shld be pouring now to complete the search. MA have now all the reasons to find the plane and solve the mystery... just to say (eventually), see it, that was not us.
By: Anonymous - 30th June 2014 at 19:42 Permalink - Edited 10th April 2020 at 19:36
Boeing has released this communication to all operators :
Posts: 5,905
By: TomcatViP - 30th June 2014 at 20:46 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Concerning that excellent report (that I've read), I still have some interrogation that puzzle me:
- If they consider in their hypothesis that flight was at a cte alt for the cruise pattern it only means that they understand that the plane was on an "alt hold" regime, probablywith auto-pilot on from start.
Cruise regime impart a parabolic profile with the weight of the plane going down, the plane climb until it reaches an other equilibrium btw weight, lift, drag and speed.
- Why didn't they cross checked the hydrophonic data recorded with that of the search patterns ? I understand that both patterns doesn't match but hydropnonic records varies greatly with temp and density. As sea bed mapping was lacking in precision in this zone, this lack of knowledge shld have compensate for the drift of the zone where an "event" was recorded.
- Manual phone calls have generated two points of data that are now useful for the search. Wouldn't it be interesting to recommend this being practiced in the future for the sake of latter forensic search ?
- The report mentions teh search for noise of a fuselage implosion but if the fuselage have been breached (in-flight fire, decompression, explosion, crash at sea which remains parts of the most plausible hypothesis), there is no implosion. Water fills gradually the fuselage and there is a pressure equilibrium. It's hard to think that the plane went at sea with a full hull integrity. This is not a ship heavily loaded. This is a light aluminium structure optimized for internal volume.
By: Anonymous - 1st July 2014 at 20:34 Permalink - Edited 10th April 2020 at 19:36
This thing about the autopilot, particularly from the media who, because of their sensationalism, make it appear that autopilot operations are the exception rather than the rule....
These days all modern airliners are flown on autopilot from shortly after takeoff to landing, with a few exceptions. I once flew the 727 without autopilot on two 2 hour sectors and it is very tiring. The autopilot was inoperative but not required by the MEL so the company dispatched the flight.
In order to maintain manual flying skills, we periodically hand-fly departures and approaches so as not to end up in the same situation as Asiana. But generally the entire flight is conducted on autopilot.
Posts: 5,905
By: TomcatViP - 9th July 2014 at 05:05 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
That's why mandatory flight hours in single engines aircraft in IFR cld help maintain proficiency.
For example, a pilot on a 3 day rest, might be asked to get one flight hour during that time. Wherever he is doing that (he is on leaves so he might get the chance not to be stuck around an airport!), with light monitoring device, his efficiency during that "test" flight can be monitored by body carried sensor (a wrist belt linked to his smartphone and then sent back for analysis during the Commercial flight.
But in teh case of MH370, Pilots proficiency are certainly not in cause. I am more on the AF447 with that idea.
Just my 2 cents.
Posts: 1,684
By: nJayM - 21st August 2014 at 09:35 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
This is psychologically cruel to those left possibly bereaved in as yet unsubstantiated statements in a book -
"This the joint theory of veteran commercial pilot Ewan Wilson and investigative journalist Geoff Taylor, whose book Good Night Malaysian 370: The Truth Behind The Loss Of Flight 370, was released last month."
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/08/20/mh370-missing-malaysian-airlines-flight-ewan-wilson-geoff-taylor_n_5693887.html
The aircraft intact or in bits has not as yet been located. That is the only most recent fact.
Posts: 11,141
By: charliehunt - 24th August 2014 at 05:44 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Oh, so they actually KNOW, do they? Scandalously irresponsible and inconsiderate. Every copy should be shredded.
Posts: 5,905
By: TomcatViP - 28th August 2014 at 03:08 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Mental illness ?!!!
Do we have anything to substantiate that ? Otherwise it's a smear campaign that the family could prosecute in justice.
Posts: 5,905
By: TomcatViP - 29th August 2014 at 02:07 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
malaysin-Australia to share searching cost
Posts: 5,905
By: TomcatViP - 31st August 2014 at 06:38 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Since we have seen disrespectful journalist writing strange theories based on groundless accusation and still meeting the light of the international press, I feel like we should restart the discussion around what could have happened to help feed the press with hypothesis really based on facts.
On this first one, I will restart the hypo around runaway batteries. See here
When I first wrote about this one, I have to say that I wasn't expecting full agreement with that theo since, Li Batteries are flying every day, every where in the world and carried often close to body contact.
If we had to see a runaway case incapacitating passengers, this would have been already hapening and the industry would have taken the bull by the horns since long (Apple batteries comes into mind).
Then I had a close look at the manifest. And here it comes.
[ATTACH=CONFIG]231381[/ATTACH]
As we can see, there are 133 items of one sort and 67 of another. Weights of items are respectively 1990 kg and 463.
If we make a simple division we see that elements weight are 14kg and 8kg (see manifest above- tag 1).
This seems to be much to high for a normal Li-battery pack. And as was alrdy said, a battery for general consumer product will unlikely see a catastrophic thermal runway in a plane given that they are widely used product. The incident case could not have been restricted only to MH370.
However, Li Batteries are not solely used in general consumer product. Given their performances and high voltage capacity they are sensitive product for the defense industry. Especially when it comes to be an alternate power source for diesel submarines silently making their way deep undersea or surface navies that needs increasingly discreet operating ship in coastal waters.
If we look at some of the battery pack used in this industry, we can see that such batteries are build to be modular and packed in specific encasing device adapted in shape, control requirement and safety to their targeted usage. They generally comes with their adapted charger that have an according capacity and a compatible shape.
In this example, I will use the products marketed by SAFT*, a Fr company working globally for a wide range of users (civil and military).
Here is an example extracted from the manufacturer brochure
[ATTACH=CONFIG]231382[/ATTACH]
A full packaged product for this kind of application looks like this (see brochure here
[ATTACH=CONFIG]231383[/ATTACH]
with a weight of 33kg and and dimensions of roughly 600x250x200mm
Here is a video from the company website (example to help visualize the shape, methodology and known issue with the technology):
http://www.saftbatteries.com/market-solutions/aviation/presentation
This kind of batteries have safety operational procedure defined by their operator. Some are intended for air deployment (air freight). Some are not. Here is a memo from the US Navy. Great emphasis is made around thermal runway risk and hazardous gases emissions.
On the Manifest, we can see (tag 2) that the dimensions and weight are fairly comparable (Total weigh 1990 divided by 58 packing unit equate 34kg) to the product of the Company. SAFT being a leader in its market, I have no doubt that similar dimensions are more or less the norm. Any serious study would have to assess this fact.
So, to summarize, the general idea of this post is that a fairly large battery module designed to operate undersea or on the surface at pressure ranging from atmospheric (ground level) to sub sea level (high pressure) could have been the cause of a the thermal runaway with the pressure decreasing as the plane went-up and the pressure in the cargo-bay falling to a lower value that what the enclosure was designed to sustain in normal operation (see post from the 3rd of May):
If such a sensitive battery was transported in the cargo bay of an airliner, it would certainly have to be rendered non-identifiable to be carried without trouble from one country to another. Removing the specific encasing container and parting its elements could have been the method used by non qualified personnel.
What such a device did in that plane under that hypothesis, is however beyond my rational reach tonight.
Sources:
CNN.com
SAFT Batteries
Posts: 1,684
By: nJayM - 1st September 2014 at 13:13 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The above is one of many possible causes but wait - yet another book is out.
I saw it with my own eyes in a local bookshop - "Flight MH370 The Mystery" by Nigel Cawthorne.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10839030/MH370-authors-claims-Malaysia-Airlines-plane-accidentally-shot-down-angers-victim.html
Never mind batteries the said author claims that initially the MA authorities stated on the cargo manifest that the plane was carrying mangosteens and no batteries. (Purple/brown hard outer with white edible bulbs and some large seeds)
Also print output of last dialogue by flight crew with ATC is in book. There too the author conjectures that it was an unusual way (not his usual) the first officer made his last transmission.
This is highly irregular/irresponsible authoring with no hard facts of the aircraft location (intact/debris).
The anguished people waiting for news of what actually happened look as if they will have a tortuous and long time waiting for the aircraft to be found.
Posts: 11,141
By: charliehunt - 1st September 2014 at 14:28 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
I wonder that injunctions cannot be taken out against the publication of this sort of rubbish....
Posts: 10,625
By: Bmused55 - 1st September 2014 at 15:17 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Just some low life author out to make a quick buck. He's probably a millionaire already from the sales!
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By: Kiwiguy - 6th September 2014 at 12:40 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The real problem is they began with several false assumptions chief amongst which that it turned west from IGARI and flew through the Straits of Malacca.
The Duncan Steel group are experts in satellites and orbital dynamics, with no insight to aviation. They took as read that MH370 was last seen on radar at MEKAR north of Aceh and then began making vector additions from that location.
The Malaysian Government said a military radar at Butterworth tracked an unknown target flying over Pelau Perak, waypoint VAMPI and was last seen at MEKAR. The screenshot however is taken from a civilian SSR display:
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The military radar at Butterworth is a Thales Raytheon GM400 and this is what the screen of a Malaysian GM400 set looks like:
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It was never seen on radar flying to MEKAR. Indonesians at Lhoksumwae saw the same airspace and did not see the target which Malaysia claimed to track. Their claim is a hoax. The track plotted from MEKAR to the Indian Ocean uses vector addition from this position near MEKAR and the reason why it makes no sense is because MH370 was never at MEKAR.
Posts: 34
By: Kiwiguy - 6th September 2014 at 13:13 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
If MH370 flew from MEKAR the autopilot would have to have flown a magnetic heading and that being the case in the 5 hours and 49 minutes remaining until the last satellite ping at 00;11 UTC if flown on a magnetic heading would have overshot the Southern Arc by a large margin.
Only a deliberate conscious action programming a final co-ordinate on the southern arc could result in the autopilot flying a great circle route and why exactly would anybody program the autopilot to fly to that specific point?
What it actually proves is the entire nonsense of all these weighty calculations by satellite experts and orbital physics boffins. The reason why the actual behaviour of an autopilot does not correlate with all these vector additions by the Duncan Steel group is because MH370 never flew south from MEKAR
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By: nJayM - 6th September 2014 at 15:29 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Unlike the more than likely fiction/ likely theories in the books by authors making more than a 'killing' in proceeds these reports are telling of the anguish of those left in the complete 'dark'.
My heart and I am sure the hearts of many of you on this forum will go out to these people left in a complete psychological mire due to the lack of real evidence ie as yet a complete aircraft intact or as debris.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/11078450/MH370-After-six-months-of-limbo-families-of-missing-passengers-are-increasingly-angry.html
"MH370: After six months of limbo, families of missing passengers are increasingly angry
China is making life difficult for grieving relatives still desperate for news of Malaysia Airlines plane that vanished
Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday 61-year-old Dai Shuqin takes a two-hour bus trip to a drab biscuit-coloured building on the northern outskirts of Beijing.
For six months she has been trapped in limbo, sleep-deprived and with little appetite, since three generations of her sister's family vanished on board Flight MH370.
So she returns again and again to this building, a "support centre" that was set up in May after Malaysia Airlines stopped paying for the families to stay in the Lido Hotel in the city centre.
Dozens of other relatives in China have fallen into the same weekly routine, drawn to this focal point for their grief.
Each time they are asked to fill out forms with their names and the names of their loved ones. In a box underneath, they can write questions which will never be answered.
In a cruel twist, the centre is directly beneath the flight path of Beijing airport. As they sit together waiting for news, they have to listen to planes roaring overhead every few seconds.
"Sometimes there are 100 of us in there," said Ms Dai. "But the room is small and they refuse to provide any water or food. Although it has been a hot summer only the staff offices are air-conditioned.
"They never answer any questions. Every time they say the same thing: 'We are searching really hard. We are more anxious than you. The Chinese government has put a lot of effort into it.'
"They say it every time. It drives us crazy, literally crazy. Sometimes the families think they are going to break down."
As the saga of Flight MH370 drags on, the relatives have become at best a nuisance and at worst a threat to the brittle patina of "social stability" that the Communist party insists upon.
So the centre is carefully watched. As we approached it one day last week, security guards rushed to block the entrance and a senior policeman in plain clothes emerged to escort us from the surrounding industrial park.
"They put the support centre out here, in the middle of nowhere, so that our voices could not be heard," said Ms Dai. "And it is only open Monday to Friday during working hours, so anyone with a job cannot come."
Anyone who fails to keep a close grip on their emotions faces the wrath of the authorities, she added.
"Once a woman and her father-in-law unfurled a protest banner. But afterwards when the woman went to fetch something from her car, plain clothes policemen snatched her away. Her father-in-law was followed into the bathroom, seized and taken away. Later, when we called the police, they said they had been detained," she said.
On another occasion, at the beginning of July, a group of relatives who had travelled to Beijing from the countryside were arrested for trying to sleep at the centre.
"These people were farmers. Many of them stopped working after MH370 disappeared and sold their land for money. When they came to the support centre they asked if they could stay to save on their costs. But the police arrested them. They even dragged a six-year-old kid from his father and threw him in the back of the police van," said Ms Dai.
Other relatives said they shot videos of the arrests on their mobile phones, but that the footage mysteriously disappeared from their phones a few hours later.
"All the families who go to the centre now are scared. Every time before I go I tell my family that if they cannot reach me when they call it means I am in trouble. The others all do the same thing."
The relatives are keen to mark, on September 8, the six months since the disappearance of the plane. But they have been unable so far to find a venue brave enough to host them.
"All the family members would say the situation now is worse," said Jack Song, whose sister Song Chunling was on board MH370.
"It was very sad when we were in the hotel and everyone cried, but at least we could help each other and we formed different groups, a negotiating group, a technical study group, a group to deal with the media and so on. We supported each other.
"Now everyone lives a long way away and there are no channels for them to get any information. Without any information, you feel very helpless," he added.
Chat groups have sprung up on Chinese social media. Instead of the support centre, Mr Song is trapped by his habit of endlessly checking his mobile phone for updates.
"I cannot focus on anything else," he said. "I look at my WeChat account every few minutes. Just in the two hours we have been talking, there have been 35 new messages from relatives."
With no conclusive evidence of the plane's demise, most of the Chinese relatives will not openly say that their loved ones are dead, even if they accept there is little hope.
The Malaysian authorities, they point out, have not even released the closed circuit television footage of passengers boarding the plane, allowing many to desperately cling on to the hope that somehow their relatives were not on board.
Most are also furious at the conduct of Malaysia and Malaysia Airlines, who they say have treated them with little respect and refused to release key information that would help them come to terms with their loss.
They also wonder why Boeing and Inmarsat, the satellite company whose information has been key to the effort to track the plane's movements, have not directly opened up their data to the public.
"If you want to work out where the plane is, you need to know the wind speed, the speed of the plane and the position of the satellite," said Jiang Hui, a 41-year-old telecommunications engineer whose mother was on board. "They have not released any of that data to us. And they have not shared the algorithm they used for their analysis
"I cannot understand why they are so reluctant to share. The way that the Malaysian government has delayed everything from the very beginning and made everything chaotic is very difficult for me to understand. It makes me think there is something going on behind the scenes, but I do not know what."
Martin Dolan, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) chief who is heading the search, said he understood the scepticism but insisted that investigators were trying to be as transparent as possible with the families.
"Our message to them is that a range of world experts is working together with a single focus of finding this aircraft and solving the mystery of its disappearance. They should have confidence in the work that is being done because it is being done meticulously and we are progressively publishing the results of that work so that other experts can test it and debate it and form views about it.
"We are not trying to hide anything. It is just that we do not want to publish things until we have done the work and therefore have something we are confident in. We are trying to be as open as we can."
The ATSB put out a 58-page report on June 26 on its website and updated it on Aug 18.
Mr Song said the families would keep petitioning the companies until there was some resolution. "People feel angry and helpless. At least two or three of the elderly relatives have passed away. Lots of the passengers were the breadwinners for their families, so there are economic problems.
"MH370 changed my life completely, and the lives of all of the relatives. Many are now on the verge of collapse." "
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By: TomcatViP - 7th September 2014 at 02:51 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Thx to remind us what are the daily suffering of the relatives. It give us the perspective needed to act with caution on the forum.
Let me pursue the Battery theory.
Here are a condensed of FAA regarding the problem with thermal runaway:
http://avherald.com/h?article=431f0863&opt=0
it might no be related but...
Surveying the Aircraft incident report give more clue to this hypothesis with smell of burn in cabin and cockpit, loss of aircraft primary systems system or loss of consciousness in GA aircraft (TBM 900 and Cirrus)
Example:
....5th of sept : TBM900 + Thomas Cook A320 near Brussels on Sep 5th 2014, strange smell in cockpit and cabin
....4th of sept : Cirrus
...1st of Sept: Jetblue A320 over Atlantic on Sep 1st 2014, smoke in cockpit + burning smell
...31st of August: KLM Cityhopper F70 near Amsterdam on Aug 31st 2014, odour on board
... 27th of august: White AT72 at Lisbon, smoke in cabin + burning smell
...11th of April: A319 at Frankfurt, smoke in cockpit
... 8th of april: A319 near Cologne, Elmo's fire and loss of all instruments
Li Battery are now integrated in avionics panel such as for example the L-3 Trilogy ESI-2000 backup instrument with integral backup battery in the TBM 900
The potentiality of a malfunction or a faulty quality of one of the cell is increased by the dissemination and multiplication of the number of battery. Satisfactory Environment control during the design is also a weak point with non-standardized implementation.
Sources:
http://avherald.com/
http://www.aopa.org/
http://www.saftbatteries.com/
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By: Kiwiguy - 7th September 2014 at 15:09 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
A friend of mine Denise Wong corresponded with oil rig worker Mike McKay who abandoned the previously published email address. I have read his reply to her and he clarified that he saw an aircraft on fire for 10-15 seconds with a bright orange flame on the left side. (left side from his vantage as he could not understand if it was flying towards him or away - I assume it was making a turn to starboard over Con Son Island with flames down the port side)
That excludes any possibility of a Lithium battery fire since Lithium burns violet, not orange.
Also McKay said he saw the flames self-extinguish on the aircraft which he saw off Vietnam. This is precisely what one would expect from an aircraft with a cabin fire venting through a hole melted in the cabin wall.
Lithium batteries on the other hand generate self-sustaining exothermic reactions which would not self extinguish at 35,000ft.
There was a fire on MH370, which started inside a pressurised cabin. It had nothing to do with Lithium batteries. Once the aircraft had depressurised it could only fly by autopilot in a straight line on a magnetic heading in the direction it was last pointing.
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That excludes any possibility that it flew an intricate zig-zag path back through the Straits of Malacca and then turned south around the tip of Sumatra. That never happened.
That it emitted the last satellite handshake ping at 00:11 UTC on the Southern Arc is not in dispute.
What has no credibility is the claim it was flown deliberately through the Straits of Malacca then turned South.
What is credible is that it suffered a cabin fire at high altitude after pilots had tried to turn the plane back from Vietnam.
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By: snafu - 8th September 2014 at 15:57 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Nice run through the various theories on the BBC News website today...
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By: TomcatViP - 8th March 2015 at 17:09 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The battery of the MH370 underwater beacon had expired 15 month before tragic flight:
Also:
It's really concerning that such a software was seemingly used un-updated for that amount of time. It cast doubt on the safety standards on both the company and the software editor. The doubts also are tick around the potential dissemination of similar deficiencies.
And how can such low standards not be monitored ?
Source:
Reuters.com
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By: TomcatViP - 9th March 2015 at 02:50 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
"[Malaysia] airline ... even more clearly now may be responsible for the unsuccessful search for this plane."
Money shld be pouring now to complete the search. MA have now all the reasons to find the plane and solve the mystery... just to say (eventually), see it, that was not us.
Source:
reuters.com