What if no Dreamliner ever?

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14 years 4 months

Posts: 1,101

Airlines are all assuming that they are getting Boeing 787-s in 2008 and new models in 2010 and later. They call it a new revolutionary technology. They have orders for it.

There is no part of Boeing 787 in existence now. The plane is supposed to make a first flight in 2007. The making of the first frame is supposed to start in 2006.

What would happen if no Boeing 787 ever flew?

Once upon a time there was a new, revolutionary plane Boeing 2707. Airlines held, I think, 122 orders. And the assembly of the first flying frame had actually started - more than can be said of Boeing 787 now.

No Boeing 2707 was ever rolled out. The first plane was not completed.

What happened to airlines who had ordered Boeing 2707 but did not get them?

What would happen if, sometime in 2006, something were discovered so that no Dreamliner is ever rolled out? What would become of the airlines?

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Profile picture for user Schorsch

Member for

14 years 3 months

Posts: 3,718

Airlines are all assuming that they are getting Boeing 787-s in 2008 and new models in 2010 and later. They call it a new revolutionary technology. They have orders for it.

There is no part of Boeing 787 in existence now. The plane is supposed to make a first flight in 2007. The making of the first frame is supposed to start in 2006.

What would happen if no Boeing 787 ever flew?

Once upon a time there was a new, revolutionary plane Boeing 2707. Airlines held, I think, 122 orders. And the assembly of the first flying frame had actually started - more than can be said of Boeing 787 now.

No Boeing 2707 was ever rolled out. The first plane was not completed.

What happened to airlines who had ordered Boeing 2707 but did not get them?

What would happen if, sometime in 2006, something were discovered so that no Dreamliner is ever rolled out? What would become of the airlines?

First, it won't happen.
Second, your scenario is not completly unrealistic.

The Boeing B787 incorporates (following Boeing's announcements) a lot of new technology, including as most important
- high composite percentage and even key structure parts made completly of composite (i. e. the fuselage)
- engines with very high bypass ratio (the bleedless is a new thing, too, but it is no innovation)
- more electrical systems (due to bleedless engines)

All of these technologies are risky. Normally one would suggest to make a technology demonstrator ore to build a pre-production series. Not so Boeing (Airbus doesn't make it better), they want to build 30 or so aircraft in the very first year. From a business point of view this is clever, but if you find a problem in flight test and aircraft #20 is already in final assembly you have an expensive problem.

But it won't happen. Why not?

Boeing will constantly watch its design process. Just look the first announcements and pictures. First is was the all-composite aircraft, now it has a decreasing amount of composites. If you encounter a problem in design, engineers will either have to risk or they switch back to aluminium and lose some performance.
The way chosen while aircraft is in design stage is a line of decisions made by upper management: If these people read to much articles about rapid prototype and quick computer model design they might tend to overhear warnings from their engineers.

So, worst case for Boeing would be
- a huge delay in deliveries with consequent financial losses
- a number of cancellations depending on the contracts (if airlines have cancelation-option if Boeing misses particular efficiency goals).
and of course stupid comments by its competitor.

I don't think they cancel the problem, get a black cart from FAA (no certification) or crash an aircraft. After all, it is still Boeing.

Member for

14 years 4 months

Posts: 1,101


So, worst case for Boeing would be
- a huge delay in deliveries with consequent financial losses
- a number of cancellations depending on the contracts (if airlines have cancelation-option if Boeing misses particular efficiency goals).
and of course stupid comments by its competitor.

I don't think they cancel the problem, get a black cart from FAA (no certification) or crash an aircraft. After all, it is still Boeing.

Taking the SST-s, they had different degrees of success:

Concorde had 74 orders. Most were cancelled. 9 frames, however, were bought, for price 130 % the price of Boeing 747 at the time. 5 more frames were built as whitetails due to cancellations and given away for free. The 14 delivered frames were in revenue service for 27 years.

Tu-144 did enter revenue service, but was withdrawn after 55 service flights in total.

Boeing 2707 was never rolled out.

When was Boeing 2707 supposed to be delivered?

How many of the 122 orders for Boeing 2707 had been cancelled before Boeing cancelled the whole program?

Profile picture for user andrewm

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19 years 11 months

Posts: 4,213

There is no part of Boeing 787 in existence now

There was me thinking they had started assembling the fuse...