Safety statistics and an odd fact

I'm not a mathematician but one of the more interesting quirks thrown up by the Concorde crash is how statistics can be made to prove anything.

FACT On July 1 2000 Concorde was the safest airliner in the world.

FACT On August 1 2000 Concorde is one of the most dangerous airliners in the world with almost 7.143% of all production aircraft having crashed during the last 31 days.

In terms of deaths per pax mile flown, what was once the safest aircraft in the sky now has a moderate record instead of a spotless one.

What has happened? One aircraft has crashed and, in safety terms, a medium sized fatality list (compared to crashes of transAtlantic airline accidents of recent years) has amended the
statistics pretty dramatically.

Of course the statistics were badly skewed before the crash. Concorde had a perfect safety record BUT its usage, across both fleets, put the fleet's "life" between 3 and 5 years when compared to an average long haul aircraft fleet averaging 15 hours a day per airframe.

Each Concorde is a very pampered aircraft and should naturally have a first class record.

The point I'm trying to make is, given some of the postings here re other accidents and airline safety records, everyone needs to look at published figures in many different lights before deciding which airlines are safe and unsafe.

Apart from the raw statistics, other evidence of practice and performance and operating conditions need to be assessed.

The odd fact? Gonesse, where the crash happened is only about 3 miles from Goussainville where the TU-144 crashed when flying at the Paris Air Show.

Original post

Member for

20 years

Posts: 8

RE: Safety statistics and an odd fact

Agree with your comment 100% PhilB that stats can be massaged to read almost anything... but as the saying goes... you cant let the facts get in the way of a good story (or a lively and emotional forum discussion!) The media know this very well too. ;-)

Either way, I am re-organising my financial position to reserve 2 seats on a Concorde flight as soon as poss. Especially now they are making additional exotic stops on route...

RE: Safety statistics and an odd fact

Just make sure that your diversion is at a "temperate" time if your chosen diversion is to Gander. If its Bangor Maine you fancy, there's not much happens there apart from Maine ANG KC135s.

Don't suppose my local airport is exotic enough for you, but you are welcome at Shannon anytime :-)

Member for

20 years

Posts: 3

RE: Safety statistics and an odd fact

Thought on statistics:

According to a statistician, if you have one foot in a bucket of boiling water and the other in a bucket of ice water, you should be at a comfortable temperature.