The Greeks Vote Themselves out of Austerity!

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It seems the 'anti-austerity' Syriza party may form the next Greek government: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30975437 But I think that hopes that Greece can just negotiate a 'write-off' of half of the bail-out money they have borrowed from the EU / IMF are extremely naïve; if they want to stay in the EU and they need to borrow money (which they certainly do) then they have to be dictated to by those that they borrow the money from... ...no amount of democracy will change that! And if they default and come out of the EU who will lend them money? I've said it before but no electorate can simply 'vote' themselves rich (or out of debt)!
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And if they default and come out of the EU who will lend them money?
Never stopped Nigeria, and they still manage to get finance.
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Everyone knows there'll be a few weeks/months of usual Eurowrangling ending in a stitch up which buys Greece another year or two and saves face in Brussels but most important of all preserves the Euro and the Eurozone - for another year or so.

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Never stopped Nigeria, and they still manage to get finance.
Governments, especially governments of oil-producing countries, can always borrow money... ...the rub is what the lender charges in interest. Greece couldn't afford to borrow before a default.....so how will they afford to borrow after one?

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The likes of Russia may well back them to increase their sphere of influence.
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Once the deals have been done and Greece and the Eurozone have agreed a revamped package probably with another chunk of printed money it will be interesting to see how this hard left party governs. Once we know whether or not they have a working majority their intentions will be clarified, no doubt. Just heard they will have to form a coalition anyway so the election rhetoric will be watered down and since neither Brussels nor Syriza and the majority of Greeks want "Grexit" both sides are bound to end up agreeing another Eurocompromise.
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Watching the difference between cheap to make election pledges and facing harsh reality will make interesting viewing, particularly for those who see Farage as the new Messiah about to lead us into the promised land. Moggy
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Indeed - once the hysteria has died down and they are sitting round the cabinet table with whomever they coalesce with the harsh realities will not have changed much. And it will be the same here in the middle of May.

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Watching Newsnight, if Greece pulled out of the loans and defaulted on them, they wouldn't need any in the short term as their GDP is plus 3 %, the only thing dragging down their economy is the payments on the loans.

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The Greek GDP has grown by 3% or the Greek government has a surplus of 3% (less interest payments on their loans)? Personally I cannot believe that Greece has a government surplus (given the number of unemployed and the reluctance of most Greeks to pay any taxes)! Edit: Yes, Greece has a 'primary budget surplus' of 3%; the government earns 3% more in tax than it spends, less interest repayments, of course. Which kind-of begs the question: why did Greece need to borrow £179billion from the EU / IMF if the government operates a surplus?

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What I saw briefly on Newsnight (will watch the rest on iPlayer) was very worrying; all sorts of people seem to think that the Greeks have discovered a new political way... ...'democracy' instead of 'capitalism'! Ridiculous!!! I'm going to try it myself; just taken a vote within my household as to the 'austerity' we've been suffering due to our mortgage repayments! A 100% vote was recorded in favour ending austerity and not making any more repayments... ...how can my bank object.....it is a victory for democracy over capitalism!!!
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I suspect the Greeks will come to realise that they have gained little once the euphoria subsides. At least the third who did vote for a new golden age. The other two thirds will probably be unsurprised that not much will have changed by this time next year........
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Watching the difference between cheap to make election pledges and facing harsh reality will make interesting viewing, particularly for those who see Farage as the new Messiah about to lead us into the promised land. Moggy
Indeed, as they discovered in France.

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You haven't quite got that right - so, no surprise. The new Messiah isn't about to lead us INTO the promised land but, AWAY from it ! There ! That sounds a lot better.

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I suspect the Greeks will come to realise that they have gained little once the euphoria subsides. At least the third who did vote for a new golden age. The other two thirds will probably be unsurprised that not much will have changed by this time next year...
I agree, but there seems to be some genuine inability to connect 'growth' and government debt, or for that matter, 'austerity' and having to pay back the money your government has borrowed (plus interest)!
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This debacle reminds me of the 'freeman on the land' movement, whereby (usually poor and delusional) individuals imagine they can get out of a range of charges by using the correct pseudo-legalese. Cue Youtube videos of chavs shouting 'I do not consent' to baffled police officers, having been pulled over for speeding whilst not displaying a valid tax disk and running on bald tires. Seems the Greeks are in a similar pickle.
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Actually, John, as it has clearly escaped your attention, the deluded third of Greeks believe the messiash IS going to lead them into a new promised land. Unfortunately they will be rudely awakened to the realities of life over the next few months. CD - quite so. Probably because facing the truth is too frightful, so rose-tinted spectacles are ther order of the day.

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One thing that struck me watching the 'Newsnight' piece on iPlayer was the number of people from other EU countries that were actually in Greece supporting or watching the Syriza party; these Italian, Spannish and, in one case a British trade unionist, were certainly of the opinion that if this 'works' for the Greeks then it could 'work' for them! There was a genuine feeling that something new and radical had been invented; that some new socialist ideal could simply be voted-in because the people were sick of 'austerity' and had democratically decided they didn't want any more of it! Now that may actually work for Greece; they could default. But that default would have a knock-on effect; which private-sector EU banks would loose-out in a default? French, Spannish, Italian or German? Who would the ECB and IMF turn to if their loans were not repaid? What if Spain or Italy chose to default too rather than bail-out their banks that lost money to Greece? The rhetoric from Greece is in stark contrast to that coming out of Germany and the EU finance office. And if Greece did default, what then? An economy, even with a 3% budget surplus, cannot suddenly provide employment for the 25% unemployed (50% youth unemployment) overnight; not without creating millions of public-sector jobs. And those public-sector jobs would need huge borrowing to support them surely? Isn't this how Greece got into this mess in the first place? Too many public-sector jobs, generous pay and (early) pensions and too little tax collected?
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Presumably the British trade unionist was under the mistaken impression the UK was in the Eurozone!! I think, in simple terms, once they have defaulted the only way they can continue is by printing their currency so at that point they have effectively quit the Euro. Would the 65% plus Greeks who favour remaining in the Eurozone thank Syriza for that? I rather doubt it.

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And this BBC article talks of Syriza cutting an unpopular (with the middle-classes) property tax and 'demanding debt-cancellation and growth policies from the EU': http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30997830 So, just cancel debt, borrow more money for 'growth' (from those you just defaulted from) and pay less tax (in typical Greek fashion)... ...sounds like a potential train-wreck to me!