By: Creaking Door
- 1st February 2015 at 20:27Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Greek PM Alexis Tsipras has said that Greece would repay loans from the IMF and the ECB (10% and 6% of loans respectively) and I think we can rule-out a default on the 4% of loans to Greek banks:
Not looking so good for whoever holds the remaining 80% of the loans if Greece is going to default on 50% of the total debt.....or is this just the start of some serious backtracking by Alexis Tsipras?
Mr Tsipras made his first major speech to parliament since taking over as prime minister on Sunday evening.
He said he would stick to his campaign pledges, which include giving free food and electricity to the poor. He promised to cut politicians' benefits, such as ministerial cars and said he would fight against corruption and tax avoidance.
He also said he would seek a loan, not an extension to the bailout.
By: charliehunt
- 26th June 2015 at 13:29Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Can anyone credit the on-going farce of this endless EU/Greece soap opera being acted out anywhere else on the globe. The outcome has been known for months - years!! Probably not as there is no other political grouping remotely comparable to the EU.
Honestly, what's the point? When the referendum is held, on 5th July, Greece will already be in default surely? Is this just more brinkmanship or an attempt to buy time? I'm pretty sure I can predict the result of the referendum now; the Greek people, who think they're having a tough time, will reject the demands of their creditors!
So, what then? Default, collapse of banking system, collapse of economy and chaos? I think the feeling in Greece is that it couldn't be any worse than austerity but I think it is going to be a lot worse for most of the Greek people.
And can the EU let it happen? What then for the Eurozone and the ECB? Will the IMF allow the ECB to allow the unthinkable to happen to Greece even if the ECB was prepared to let it happen?
By: TonyT
- 27th June 2015 at 22:15Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
End of the day, it will get sorted, the EU cannot afford for the Euro to collapse, the rest is just gesturing by a bunch of self opinionated windbag politicians. One cannot see Merkel playing fiddle as the treaty of Rome burns
By: Creaking Door
- 6th July 2015 at 12:30Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Well, the Greeks have voted overwhelmingly to.....ignore reality!
Thankfully, though, Yanis Varoufakis has chosen to fall on his sword, or has been pushed onto it! Still, I suppose he figures he has enough material for a couple more books on 'game theory' or 'Marxist economics' and can probably set himself up on the lecture circuit for the foreseeable future with 'Yanis Varoufakis - How I Destroyed the Euro!' or 'Yanis Varoufakis - Most Dangerous Man in Europe!'
By: charliehunt
- 6th July 2015 at 13:39Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Indeed - but less than two thirds of less than a two thirds turnout. Not really that overwhelming as a percentage of the Greek population....
But regardless of the individuals concerned - be it Yanis or Euclid - my money is still on the endlessly lengthening game because the bottom line is that the EU apparatchiks simply cannot bear to see their beloved creation break asunder before their blinkered eyes. Somehow, somewhere the Greeks will be kept afloat and we will lurch towards yet another ignominious act of this ludicrous Greek tragedy. And with each act the EU is made to look ever more ridiculous and ever more irrelevant and ever more autocratic..
By: Creaking Door
- 6th July 2015 at 15:18Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The EU may be becoming more autocratic but that makes no sense whatsoever while one member country, Greece, doesn't seem to want to obey the rules; Greece wants the money alright but that has to mean that Greece also accepts the rules...
...and unfortunately for Greece 'austerity' is the rule that its creditors require it to obey.
By: charliehunt
- 6th July 2015 at 15:39Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
But CD I fear you are missing the key point which is that what was said yesterday and the day before will be gain said and manipulated exactly as it had been for the last three years or more. It's called Cluedo with the emphasis on the middle two letters and the players who play by the rules lose. Greece is doing well because it hasn't played by the rules from the start of the game many years ago.......
Anyway I would imagine the Greeks will be told to go away and hold another vote and to return when they have got the right result. That is normal EU practice.....
By: John Green
- 6th July 2015 at 17:27Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The EU may be becoming more autocratic but that makes no sense whatsoever while one member country, Greece, doesn't seem to want to obey the rules; Greece wants the money alright but that has to mean that Greece also accepts the rules...
...and unfortunately for Greece 'austerity' is the rule that its creditors require it to obey.
"becoming more autocratic" could be a euphemism for 'putting on the frighteners'. That won't work because in all probability the Greeks believe that they'll get the EU cash they need anyway.
By: Creaking Door
- 6th July 2015 at 17:58Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The EU doesn't need to put the 'frighteners' on Greece, surely, they have all the power they need and more; cut-off the emergency-liquidity funds and Greece goes back into the dark-ages, literally, within days.
What Greece and the Greek people don't seem to understand is that they are utterly bankrupt. They have no cash, apart from a few billion in gold, and are such a liability that they cannot get credit from any commercial concern; their only hope is the ECB and the IMF and no amount of voting for and end to 'austerity' or holding referendums will change that!
Without cash, or credit, Greece will not be able to afford anything that they do not produce themselves: food, medicine, fuel; they may have tourism but who wants to go on holiday to somewhere you can't eat out, get sick or travel by car?
Printing new drachma will solve nothing; they will be utterly worthless outside Greece so nobody will accept them in payment outside Greece.
All I hear coming out of Greece are words like 'democracy' and 'dignity'; well, Greece was left to its own democracy to blow €300billion of other people's money...
By: John Green
- 6th July 2015 at 18:55Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
CD
CH has already pointed out that the EU will defend its empire to the death. A point with which I agree. The exit of Greece from the euro will mean that the financial markets will regard the euro as suspect particularly with regard to those members whose financial status is much like Greece eg. a tourist based agrarian economy whose artificial alignment with the powerhuse economies of central and northern Europe is responsible for the problem in the first place.
If Greece maintains the default meaning that no cash from the EU is riding to the rescue then it is effectively goodbye to any suggestion of the continuation of monetary union and the Treaty of Rome plus supplementary treaties.
I say amen to that but; it won't happen. The EU will not allow failure.
By: charliehunt
- 6th July 2015 at 19:09Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
I think those who regard the Euro as a fiscal device are totally mistaken. It was a political device at the outset and remains so.
The big mistake was to attempt the creation of a currency union without a political union but the autocrats arrogantly assumed the one would follow the other. Sadly for them they got the horse and the cart the wrong way round.
JG is quite right. The loss of one member will weaken the whole edifice. And that cannot be allowed to happen. I hope I am proved wrong.
By: Edgar Brooks
- 6th July 2015 at 19:40Permalink- Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Ironic, really, when you consider how, when the Allies needed Germany to be rebuilt in a hurry, just after the war, Greece (having been occupied, its inhabitants murdered, and possessions systematically looted) was persuaded to let Germany off its debts. I suspect the Greeks feel that they've been had; my father told me how, also just after the war, he was confronted by a "typically arrogant" (his words) Nazi pow, who told him," You have beaten us twice in war, but we shall win the peace." For Adolf, read Angela?
Posts: 9,739
By: Creaking Door - 1st February 2015 at 20:27 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Greek PM Alexis Tsipras has said that Greece would repay loans from the IMF and the ECB (10% and 6% of loans respectively) and I think we can rule-out a default on the 4% of loans to Greek banks:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31075767
Not looking so good for whoever holds the remaining 80% of the loans if Greece is going to default on 50% of the total debt.....or is this just the start of some serious backtracking by Alexis Tsipras?
Posts: 11,141
By: charliehunt - 1st February 2015 at 21:09 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Probably.
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By: Creaking Door - 8th February 2015 at 23:49 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Nope, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras is apparently sticking to his election promises:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31249907
How did he get elected again?
Posts: 11,141
By: charliehunt - 9th February 2015 at 05:49 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Politics, CD, politics. This match is far from over.......
Posts: 11,141
By: charliehunt - 26th June 2015 at 13:29 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Can anyone credit the on-going farce of this endless EU/Greece soap opera being acted out anywhere else on the globe. The outcome has been known for months - years!! Probably not as there is no other political grouping remotely comparable to the EU.
Posts: 9,739
By: Creaking Door - 27th June 2015 at 19:28 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Greece now plans to hold a referendum on whether to accept the terms of its creditors! Incredible!
I've said it before but you can't just 'vote' yourself rich (or out of debt)! This isn't democracy, it is delusion!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33300543
Honestly, what's the point? When the referendum is held, on 5th July, Greece will already be in default surely? Is this just more brinkmanship or an attempt to buy time? I'm pretty sure I can predict the result of the referendum now; the Greek people, who think they're having a tough time, will reject the demands of their creditors!
So, what then? Default, collapse of banking system, collapse of economy and chaos? I think the feeling in Greece is that it couldn't be any worse than austerity but I think it is going to be a lot worse for most of the Greek people.
And can the EU let it happen? What then for the Eurozone and the ECB? Will the IMF allow the ECB to allow the unthinkable to happen to Greece even if the ECB was prepared to let it happen?
Posts: 11,141
By: charliehunt - 27th June 2015 at 19:53 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
You can bet your life on yet another fudge. Nothing whatsoever can be allowed to undermine the Eurofederal project. Nothing.
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By: TonyT - 27th June 2015 at 22:15 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
End of the day, it will get sorted, the EU cannot afford for the Euro to collapse, the rest is just gesturing by a bunch of self opinionated windbag politicians. One cannot see Merkel playing fiddle as the treaty of Rome burns
Posts: 9,739
By: Creaking Door - 6th July 2015 at 12:30 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Well, the Greeks have voted overwhelmingly to.....ignore reality!
Thankfully, though, Yanis Varoufakis has chosen to fall on his sword, or has been pushed onto it! Still, I suppose he figures he has enough material for a couple more books on 'game theory' or 'Marxist economics' and can probably set himself up on the lecture circuit for the foreseeable future with 'Yanis Varoufakis - How I Destroyed the Euro!' or 'Yanis Varoufakis - Most Dangerous Man in Europe!'
Posts: 11,141
By: charliehunt - 6th July 2015 at 13:39 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Indeed - but less than two thirds of less than a two thirds turnout. Not really that overwhelming as a percentage of the Greek population....
But regardless of the individuals concerned - be it Yanis or Euclid - my money is still on the endlessly lengthening game because the bottom line is that the EU apparatchiks simply cannot bear to see their beloved creation break asunder before their blinkered eyes. Somehow, somewhere the Greeks will be kept afloat and we will lurch towards yet another ignominious act of this ludicrous Greek tragedy. And with each act the EU is made to look ever more ridiculous and ever more irrelevant and ever more autocratic..
Posts: 6,535
By: John Green - 6th July 2015 at 14:33 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
"...ever more autocratic..."
Add to that; sclerotic.
Posts: 9,739
By: Creaking Door - 6th July 2015 at 15:18 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The EU may be becoming more autocratic but that makes no sense whatsoever while one member country, Greece, doesn't seem to want to obey the rules; Greece wants the money alright but that has to mean that Greece also accepts the rules...
...and unfortunately for Greece 'austerity' is the rule that its creditors require it to obey.
Posts: 11,141
By: charliehunt - 6th July 2015 at 15:39 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
But CD I fear you are missing the key point which is that what was said yesterday and the day before will be gain said and manipulated exactly as it had been for the last three years or more. It's called Cluedo with the emphasis on the middle two letters and the players who play by the rules lose. Greece is doing well because it hasn't played by the rules from the start of the game many years ago.......
Anyway I would imagine the Greeks will be told to go away and hold another vote and to return when they have got the right result. That is normal EU practice.....
Posts: 6,535
By: John Green - 6th July 2015 at 17:27 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
"becoming more autocratic" could be a euphemism for 'putting on the frighteners'. That won't work because in all probability the Greeks believe that they'll get the EU cash they need anyway.
Posts: 11,141
By: charliehunt - 6th July 2015 at 17:54 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
I think I can guarantee it!!
Posts: 9,739
By: Creaking Door - 6th July 2015 at 17:58 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The EU doesn't need to put the 'frighteners' on Greece, surely, they have all the power they need and more; cut-off the emergency-liquidity funds and Greece goes back into the dark-ages, literally, within days.
What Greece and the Greek people don't seem to understand is that they are utterly bankrupt. They have no cash, apart from a few billion in gold, and are such a liability that they cannot get credit from any commercial concern; their only hope is the ECB and the IMF and no amount of voting for and end to 'austerity' or holding referendums will change that!
Without cash, or credit, Greece will not be able to afford anything that they do not produce themselves: food, medicine, fuel; they may have tourism but who wants to go on holiday to somewhere you can't eat out, get sick or travel by car?
Printing new drachma will solve nothing; they will be utterly worthless outside Greece so nobody will accept them in payment outside Greece.
All I hear coming out of Greece are words like 'democracy' and 'dignity'; well, Greece was left to its own democracy to blow €300billion of other people's money...
...where was their 'dignity' then?
Posts: 11,141
By: charliehunt - 6th July 2015 at 18:02 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Exactly. And by the end of this week they will have the necessary funding to limp forward another few weeks.
Posts: 6,535
By: John Green - 6th July 2015 at 18:55 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
CD
CH has already pointed out that the EU will defend its empire to the death. A point with which I agree. The exit of Greece from the euro will mean that the financial markets will regard the euro as suspect particularly with regard to those members whose financial status is much like Greece eg. a tourist based agrarian economy whose artificial alignment with the powerhuse economies of central and northern Europe is responsible for the problem in the first place.
If Greece maintains the default meaning that no cash from the EU is riding to the rescue then it is effectively goodbye to any suggestion of the continuation of monetary union and the Treaty of Rome plus supplementary treaties.
I say amen to that but; it won't happen. The EU will not allow failure.
Posts: 11,141
By: charliehunt - 6th July 2015 at 19:09 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
I think those who regard the Euro as a fiscal device are totally mistaken. It was a political device at the outset and remains so.
The big mistake was to attempt the creation of a currency union without a political union but the autocrats arrogantly assumed the one would follow the other. Sadly for them they got the horse and the cart the wrong way round.
JG is quite right. The loss of one member will weaken the whole edifice. And that cannot be allowed to happen. I hope I am proved wrong.
Posts: 894
By: Edgar Brooks - 6th July 2015 at 19:40 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Ironic, really, when you consider how, when the Allies needed Germany to be rebuilt in a hurry, just after the war, Greece (having been occupied, its inhabitants murdered, and possessions systematically looted) was persuaded to let Germany off its debts. I suspect the Greeks feel that they've been had; my father told me how, also just after the war, he was confronted by a "typically arrogant" (his words) Nazi pow, who told him," You have beaten us twice in war, but we shall win the peace." For Adolf, read Angela?