Amelia Earhart, TIGHAR, Hillary Clinton, Pres Obama.....

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In that way they do in someways remind me of the 2004 Sonar Scans of the Sunderland in the Cumbrian Lakes and other work undertaken by DiveTheWorld that were so amusing on threads here years ago and on the front pages of UK papers?, but were soon shown to be the work of a Walter Mitty. Mark Pilkington
Isnt that the guy who went missing or died unexpectidly on a dive or something? And on this evidence of a wheel, didnt they explore that possibility the last time ? Cant remember the full details but am sure they went looking for it !
What......? Walter Mitty was a diver too?? Didn't know he died on a dive. Thought his end came in front of a firing squad!:)
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I have it on unimpeachable authority that the 1969 moon landing never took place and it was all faked on a back-lot in Hollywood. :eek: Moggy Moustachioed faggot by appointment to the fantasists

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Only very large objects retain any semblance of original shape when left in tropical underwater shallowish areas,healthy coral areas cover items fairly quickly . I have searched for cannon on reefs without a sighting and the most usual man made object located are large iron anchors. To make a blurry image into an undercarriage leg is stretching reality to far.
To make a blurry image into an undercarriage leg is stretching reality too far.
"Stretching reality too far" - TIGHAR? Surely not...:p

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I went to that site and read the discussion, all 73 pages so far, on that video shot of the sea floor. Whilst I am not condemning the participants' enthusiasm, I have never seen so much "creative" thinking about what some amorphous chunks of coral debris might "really" be. Bearing in mind that there isn't even any idea of what size these chunks are, there being no scale to compare with whatsoever, the results are, how can I say, imaginative at best - one participant freely admits having absolutely no knowledge of aircraft or their components at all, and in fact hates flying full stop but seems to have "found" to his own satisfaction many identifiable fragments. I see chunks of coral, he sees bits of radios, fuel lines, hatches, earphones etc. Having seen, as an archaeologist, my fair share of amorphous blobs in the comparatively dry surrounds of a normal dig site and having something quite accurate to provide an idea of size I really cannot see what searching that video has revealed or can offer. To his credit even the TIGHAR person has told them that their parts identification is somewhat "enthusiastic". As for that u/c leg or whatever it is - lot of ifs, buts and wishful thinking if you ask me. It would be very interesting if all this did turn up some firm idea of Earhart's fate but so far all we still have that is certain is the last radio message.

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I spent an interesting few minutes reading the TIGHAR website the other night and thought that some of the ideas regarding the aircraft landing on the coral were extremely far-fetched; the idea that the aircraft made a wheels-down landing on the coral and was able to run-up an engine to provide power for the radio for up to four days after they went missing for example.
“If any of the nearly two hundred radio distress calls that were heard for at least four nights after the disappearance were genuine – and about half of the reported signals do seem to have been genuine – then the aircraft had to have made a relatively safe wheels-down landing and been able to run an engine to recharge the batteries.” (TIGHAR website)
Surely it would have been better to dismiss the unconfirmed radio ‘noise’ rather than trying to fit the TIGHAR theory around them! At least the TIGHAR publicity has encouraged me to examine their evidence myself and try a theory of my own (and I don’t know much more than the fact that Earhart and Noonan are missing presumed dead): That last radio message from Earhart and Noonan for example received after they had been flying for over twenty hours (with three to four hours flying time remaining) and when unable to see, or contact by radio, their destination, Howland Island; Earhart said she was flying a ‘157°/337° line’. TIGHAR seem to have taken that to indicate that Earhart and Noonan were flying to Gardner Island (Nikumaroro) in the hope of finding land but to me that doesn’t make any sense; I’m not a pilot, or used to navigating over the sea, and I have little knowledge of radio procedure but why if that was the case wouldn’t the radio message be ‘course 157°’ or ‘steering 157°’ or ‘heading for Gardner’? Also, by my reckoning, this is a most illogical thing to do; Earhart and Noonan didn’t know where they were (although they probably thought they were somewhere near Howland Island) and heading 157° is only going to take them to (tiny, uninhabited) Gardner Island (for a certain crash-landing) if they were actually over (airport and radio-equipped) Howland Island! And it is how far to Gardner Island; isn’t it at the limit of their remaining range? No, if they can’t see Howland they’ve either flown over it (unlikely?), haven’t reached it yet, or missed it to one side or the other so I think they’d have used their remaining endurance searching for Howland and trying to raise Howland on the radio. If they are judging distance by dead-reckoning they could be many miles out after twenty hours; they could also have drifted off course. The radio message of ‘flying a 157°/337° line’ says to me Earhart and Noonan thought they were good for distance but had passed to one side of Howland Island; but which side? They’d guess one side and fly that way for a while to check but then turn-back and check the other side (but without flying over ocean they’d already covered). I’d have flown some sort of ‘box search’; maybe half-hour legs 157° and then 67° (their original course?) followed by hour legs 337° then 247° and finally back onto 157° for an hour (or until the fuel was gone). It would all depend on the visibility and how much distance they’d be covering at their most economical speed but they would surely know how best to conduct such a search. What I wouldn’t do is head for a tiny, uninhabited island with no airfield and no radio, that was an unknown distance (but hundreds of miles) away, on a compass heading from an unknown starting point, with unknown weather and possibly some fault with my compass that I hadn’t detected! Plus this would be away from where any search party would be looking, especially if I’d been unsure that they knew that is what I was going to do! I’ve deliberately avoided getting information from anywhere other than the most basic stuff from the TIGHAR website for this theory so I’m sure people will be able to pick holes in it but I didn’t want to be influenced by any other information or any other theory. So how did I do?
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What Earhart meant by "flying a 157/337 line" is that a standard navigator's technique when lost is to in effect "cap the tee" of the course you were initially following--i.e. fly at right angles to it in one direction, meaning that if you've been flying due east you then fly due north, or south--and see if you can find anything that will help you determine your position. If you can't find anything while heading north, say, for a reasonable distance, you reverse course and try the same thing going south (assuming you have enough fuel). Let's take as an example that I'm flying due east from Ohio bound for New York City. If after X hours and XX minutes I calculate that I have flown just far enough to be overhead New York City but there's nothing in sight because I'm actually over rural country near Poughkeepsie, I choose to fly straight north OR straight south. If I choose north, I soon hit Albany. If I choose south, I soon hit New York City. So Earhart wasn't flying 157 "to Gardner Island," she was flying 157 to see if she'd find anything landable, ditchable, recognizeable. Whatever the reason, Earhart and Noonan decided to try flying a southeastbound course first, and Tighar (of which I'm a member, for better or worse) believes that they happened to see Gardner Island while flying that course. Had they chosen to fly northwest (337), they wouldn't have seen a thing until they hit Russia, which of course was far beyond their remaining range in any case.

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As a wee matter of interest, who did become the first women to fly around the world after Earhart failed to? I think it's a pointless waste of time and money. Even if they find anything, what's the point? The pair will still be dead and the plane a wreck.
Ah, yes, but we'll know what happened to them and many more conspiracy theories will bite the dust. As for the first woman to fly around the world, according to Google, it was some woman in 1964 called Geraldine Mock, whose husband suggested when she complained of feeling bored that she fly around the world, which she did. I can't say I believe it either. I suspect that no-one has done, but Amelia Earhart got closest. Any forum member is welcome to prove me wrong, of course.

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I suspect that no-one has done, but Amelia Earhart got closest...
Not the first, but the first non-stop.....Jeana Yeager in the Rutan Voyager in 1986! :D
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As for the first woman to fly around the world, according to Google, it was some woman in 1964 called Geraldine Mock, whose husband suggested when she complained of feeling bored that she fly around the world, which she did. I can't say I believe it either. I suspect that no-one has done, but Amelia Earhart got closest. Any forum member is welcome to prove me wrong, of course.
The Smithsonian have her cessna 180 on display ;) http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=geraldine%20mock&source=web&cd=14&sqi=2&ved=0CHcQFjAN&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nasm.si.edu%2Fcollections%2Fartifact.cfm%3Fid%3DA19760976000&ei=GSJuT8qOAsTV8QPMtfG_DQ&usg=AFQjCNHRHdv2jVAOlXNpmtray1CpVf2ZCQ

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Whatever the reason, Earhart and Noonan decided to try flying a southeastbound course first, and Tighar (of which I'm a member, for better or worse) believes that they happened to see Gardner Island while flying that course.
I’m guessing they flew 157° because they thought they were north of track and that would lead them to Howland Island but the impression I got from the TIGHAR website is that they went looking for Gardner Island (which makes no sense to me). Gardner Island is 406 miles from Howland Island; how far south of track would they have to be to see Gardner Island before they turned back?
Had they chosen to fly northwest (337), they wouldn't have seen a thing...
Well maybe, but surely they may have seen Howland Island if they had flown a course of 337°?
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Well maybe, but surely they may have seen Howland Island if they had flown a course of 337°?
But they didn't fly 337, they flew 157. You could say that was a bad decision, but they were guessing: fly northwest or fly southeast? Six of one or a half dozen of the other, you choose...
the impression I got from the TIGHAR website is that they went looking for Gardner Island
As an off-and-on member of Tighar for probably 25 years and as a longtime friend of Ric Gillespie, I can assure you that your impression is wrong.

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But they didn't fly 337, they flew 157.
Is that a certainty? Earhart’s last (intelligible) message was “We are on the line 157 337. We will repeat this message.”

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It's an intriguing puzzle. What does interest me is the skeleton (now lost) and the shoe parts found on Gardner Island. Also there is the testimony of the carpenter's daughter. Now having worked through all the material on the TIGHAR site I must say that I commend their openness in publishing the evidence, or lack thereof, for their reasons for narrowing the search to Gardner Island. There is a valid logic to the selection of Gardner Island by TIGHAR and given the last radio message it fits within the information of Earhart and Noonan's estimated position and plans to locate a landing spot. Importantly the US Navy search in the following days did not discount this and their reports show that they took that last message seriously and searched all the islands that fitted in the broadcast 157 337 run. One sceptical site dismisses TIGHAR's approach to the evidence saying that they are working backwards in using the evidence i.e. finding material first then dismissing anything that doesn't support their Gardner Island thesis. But in TIGHAR's defence I might say that I cannot find any evidence of that (barring the discussion of the skeleton which given its disappearance I felt to be a little too emphatic) in TIGHAR's methods, although it is present in the arguments of their supporters. There being considerable heat directed at people who suggest that Earhart and Noonan simply ran out of fuel and crashed in the ocean and drowned. Now the latter explanation is quite valid but given the vastness of the ocean then finding evidence to support it is, barring a miracle, near impossible. However in its defence one can say with certainty that lack of evidence doesn't discount it happening. The Gardner Island hypothesis can only be accepted or discounted following a thorough search of the atoll. But speaking from experience such a thorough search, especially for simple graves, over that large area is both ruinously expensive and complicated and unless you have some indication of where the most likely spots are then it becomes an awfully boring and resource wasting exercise. It is that latter effect that then works to lessen the competence of the team and one finds real evidence being over looked through lassitude. I once spent a week looking for a specific feature that had been reported in a quite small area of a few hundred square metres only to have it finally pointed out by someone who was not a trained archaeologist and whose only reason for being on the team was to provide logistical support - so in the end it is vital to keep all team members alert, and nothing fades faster than enthusiasm when day after day of wearying negative results continue. The funds that TIGHAR have are finite and at some stage they are either going to have to find evidence to confirm their hypothesis or be prepared to rule a line under it if nothing is found. Certainly there are some quite questionable things being published on the TIGHAR forum, especially the utterly unbelievably silly wild guesses posted about what amorphous blobs of coral might be. It would help TIGHAR's credibility if that aspect was barred, or they distanced themselves from it - one of the respondents doesn't even appear to speak any intelligible language. If TIGHAR find nothing then that is it I would suspect - it doesn't rule out the possibility that AE and FN did land at Gardner Island but it does rule out finding any material remains and evidence. And that, barring a time machine, will be it.
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The funds that TIGHAR have are finite and at some stage they are either going to have to find evidence to confirm their hypothesis or be prepared to rule a line under it if nothing is found.
Quite. According to their website they've been looking there for 22 years and still don't have definative proof. As they say.."time to fish or cut bait". Their focus on Gardner is easily understandable...if you have made finding something your life's work, you're never going to admit that the more likely and obvious outcome...a water landing at a spot never to be found...is probably what happened.
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Is that a certainty?
Nope. Not many certainties in this affair, other than that they took off from Lae.

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Assumptions, assumptions.... Stepwilk says: What Earhart meant by "flying a 157/337 line" is that a standard navigator's technique when lost is to in effect "cap the tee" of the course you were initially following--i.e. fly at right angles to it in one direction, meaning that if you've been flying due east you then fly due north, or south— I don’t think Richard would like what you have written Stepwilk because it is a direct contradiction of the philosophy behind the whole principle of the Tighar Nikumaroro Hypothesis. The direct course to Howland is 078 degrees TRUE, 068 MAGNETIC, because the Variation on the approach to Howland is 10 degrees East. The Basis of the Tighar Nikumaroro Hypothesis is the Azimuth of the Sun at sunrise… which lasts for about an hour (I recall)…. The azimuth of the sun is 067 TRUE degrees from True North and adding a line at right angles to that Azimuth at sea level results in a “sunline” of 157-337 (in TRUE degrees). The basis of the Tighar Nikumaroro Hypothesis is that the sunline went through HOWLAND Island and the extended “157” line (the southern line) of this sunline goes very near to Gardner Island (Nikumaroro) and this is “supposedly” how AE & FN got to Gardner by following this 157 line. Incidentally, Gary La Pook gives a very detailed argument as to “why” this line would be impossible to follow in amongst his many discourses which he gives as an experienced Navigator. What you are saying Stepwilk is what I have considered to be the actual event, ie; a “line of position” (not a sunline) which cuts across their course to Howland Island at 90 degrees (cap the tee) and when they reached their terminator, they either turn left or right at 90 degrees to this course to search for Howland. So, Stepwilk, I am glad you said that because Earhart and Noonan did not know for sure that they were at HOWLAND and that is evident in the 1912GMT call, “…must be on you but cannot see you”. There is, therefore, no proof at all that the 157-337 TRUE line even ran through Howland and therefore it is an assumption that the line they were on went anywhere near to Gardner Island. The line could have been miles away…. Furthermore, I am glad you did say “capping the tee” of their course because their course on approach to Howland could very well have been 067 Magnetic if they were laying off one degree for wind, meaning that capping the tee as you say, would result in establishing a “line of position” of 157-337 MAGNETIC. In addition to all that, it would be very unusual for a 157-337 to be given out in TRUE degrees, Aviators work in Magnetic not in True degrees. Also, if they were unsure of where they were as in the “must be on you” at 1912GMT, which I am sure you will agree is not a definitive statement; then they could have started the “line of position” at any point where they terminated their course, ie; when they “thought” that they were at, or lateral to, Howland Island. Stepwilk also says: Whatever the reason, Earhart and Noonan decided to try flying a southeastbound course first, and Tighar (of which I'm a member, for better or worse) believes that they happened to see Gardner Island while flying that course. (It’s for worse…) Had they chosen to fly northwest (337), they wouldn't have seen a thing until they hit Russia, which of course was far beyond their remaining range in any case. There is no reason “at all” to say they tried a southeastbound course first, UNLESS they were positively to the North of Howland which would mean that Noonan “laid off” to the North on purpose. If they then were “at North of Howland” then theoretically turning onto 157 TRUE (on the Sunline and "if" they were on it) they should have seen it. If they “knew” they were South of Howland, then turning North would be the first course in the search attempt. By saying they turned Southeastbound first would logically mean then, although they “thought” they were at or lateral to Howland, in fact they were not because they didn’t see it. Proceeding on a continual run southeast as you say until they reached Gardner therefore would be madness, because they would be then know that they were “unsure” of their position, ie; “lost”. Better to start a square search first, then if you can't find what you are looking for, take a stab at the unknown (if you have the fuel). If they turned Northwest onto 337, they would only go for 15 minutes and then “space” the aircraft by flying either 067 Magnetic or 247 Magnetic, for 10 to 15 miles and then turning onto 157 for 30 minutes and completing the square (or rectangle) by returning to their approximate start point, that would take about an hour and 12 minutes bringing the Electra close to the 2014GMT call. Wandering off into the unknown would mean they were nuts and I don’t believe they were nuts. Creaking Door says: I’m guessing they flew 157° because they thought they were north of track and that would lead them to Howland Island but the impression I got from the TIGHAR website is that they went looking for Gardner Island (which makes no sense to me). That (as above) would make no sense to me either…. But Stepwilk says: But they didn't fly 337, they flew 157. As above Stepwilk, you don’t know that. For sure you do not know that. Nobody knows which direction they took first. Malcolm McKay says: One sceptical site dismisses TIGHAR's approach to the evidence saying that they are working backwards in using the evidence i.e. finding material first then dismissing anything that doesn't support their Gardner Island thesis. Malcolm, TIGHAR dismiss “anything” which does not agree with the “holy” Hypothesis. (barring the discussion of the skeleton which given its disappearance I felt to be a little too emphatic) …aaaaahh, the Skeleton… Malcolm, the parts of a skeleton which were found were most probably from one of the poor souls from the S.S. Norwich City… Tighar does not include those remains as “the bones”. Eleven souls lost from the Norwich City, only four buried in shallow coral graves (ever tried to dig in coral ?). The later visit by a survey party after the ship ran aground reported the foreshore littered with bones. There was a Medical person who did get his mits on the bones…. Dr. Hoodless in Fiji actually did examine the bones and pronounced them Male, mixed race, 5 foot 6 inches tall. He took measurements. Tighar puts the Hoodless measurements through a computer and what do you get ? “Female, Nordic race, 5 foot 9 inches tall…” which just happens to coincide with….. The Gardner Island hypothesis can only be accepted or discounted following a thorough search of the atoll. But speaking from experience such a thorough search, especially for simple graves, over that large area is both ruinously expensive. You can say that again… about ten visits is it (?) and some US$5 Million used up with another 500 Grand waiting to go down the hole…. Certainly there are some quite questionable things being published on the TIGHAR forum, especially the utterly unbelievably silly wild guesses posted about what amorphous blobs of coral might be. There is also a lot of good stuff among the Tighar “not so good” I will say that…...but a Landing Gear fork ? Unreal…. In fact, they have drawn the yellow overlay onto the supposed Landing Gear fork but there is a glaring mistake… The depiction is of a Model 10A landing gear, not of the Model 10E Landing Gear, so the amorphous blobs are Landing Gears belonging to a 10A, not Earhart’s aircraft at all…Surprise !!! My Goodness...there's a new mystery, how did a Model 10A get there ? It would help TIGHAR's credibility if that aspect was barred, or they distanced themselves from it - one of the respondents doesn't even appear to speak any intelligible language. ‘Ere, 'Ere ! I beg your pardon – He’s from Manchester or Liverpool… they speak the Queen’s English up there you know…anyway they think they do…! Furthermore, he’s on the way to bein’ a Senior Tighar; soe's soon, sea, evry boddy ullbi speekin summat wiv du saem intellijabul langwij uz youse speekin ov….so thare ! The Radio Aerial.... By the way, the Radio Aerial loss was started by a statement that "old timers at LAE" had said that some aerial wire was found on the runway after AE & FN (don't forget Fred) left. Now if that were so, there would have been what we in Aircraft Engineering call: "A Fleet Check" to see which aircraft in the LAE fleet had lost an aerial. Nothing reported, because if they all had their aerials, whose would it have been ? That news would have been conveyed long ago as the reason for AE not answering calls. When asked to identify just who the "old timers at LAE" were, Tighar went silent. You see, these statements are sometimes made "off the cuff" and later turn into reality (FACT). It is a known fact that the Expatriates left in LAE to the mercy of the Japanese when WWII came were taken to RABAUL and then transported (Most of them) on the "Montevideo Maru" and we know what happened to that, don't we ? The final nail in the coffin of the Radio Aerial is that Radio Engineers will say that the Vee Aerial on her aircraft was both for Tx and Rx. Open for Rx all the time but transferred to Tx by a relay. Do not forget that her receiver was on the blink when she was on the way to Darwin and Sgt. Stan Rose of the RAAF replaced the fuse and gave her a few spare fuses. Maybe the receiver finally went "cactus" (!Blew Up!). Nothing to do with the aerial, purely an assumption which has not been proven even by photo enhancement. .....as per the "Wheel" sticking out of the water....well... RPM
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After much research I am still at a loss.... http://thechesterfields.net/MCP/donkey.jpg