'Several large-scale searches of the ocean around Howland Island'.....really? High-profile? When and by whom?
It's just RG trying to enhance his pet theory.
If he tells enough people others have extensively searched around Howland, that makes his unproven (and not terribly likely or logical) Nikumaroro theory look better.
If they had made landfall on Nikumaroro, their likely would have been evidence seen when the Navy searched the place a week after their disappearance, but if they simply missed Howland, they would have sunk by the time the Navy got there.
By: MFowler
- 12th August 2019 at 23:22Permalink- Edited 13th August 2019 at 00:00
This is the most interesting quote from Gillespie, in the BBC article: "Each time a search fails to find a physical 'smoking gun' the mystery grows in stature and attracts another would-be The Man Who Found Amelia. It's an interesting self-perpetuating phenomenon."
And one which Gillespie has nurtured, encouraged and prodded to higher levels at every opportunity over the last 30-plus years.
Not to mention lucrative. To the tune of more than $2.28 million in salary to him and his wife just since 2001. I don't know about anyone else here, but I think I could eke out a decent existence on an average of $143,000 a year ...
By: MFowler
- 18th August 2019 at 00:26Permalink- Edited 18th August 2019 at 00:30
I'm curious what Ballard's budget is for this jaunt. TIGHAR has spent almost $7 million since 2000 in documented project costs, the majority of it on expeditions to Nikumaroro, and has found, well, nothing.
By: Stratosphere
- 18th August 2019 at 18:23Permalink
Working on the theory that Earheart and Noonan ditched at sea and any remains of the Aircraft are in 18000 feet of Ocean would there be any tangible wreckage left?
Water pressure at that depth would surely crumple and break up a small Aircraft.
looking at Ed Noonans life he seems to have achieved a great deal as a master Mariner/Navigator, Shame he is less remembered.
By: Wellington285
- 18th August 2019 at 19:17Permalink
These bones were identified as male from the skull and pelvis which Mr Gillespie fails to mention. The length measurement of the femur taken at the time were found to be that of a shorter person. I'm sure that the way of estimating height is the same formula used today as back then. I can say that these bones are 100% not Earharts. Did see a TV programme that challenged Gillespies theory's, managed to record it is there a way of showing it on line or on here with out infringing copyright.
Ian
Working on the theory that Earheart and Noonan ditched at sea and any remains of the Aircraft are in 18000 feet of Ocean would there be any tangible wreckage left?
Water pressure at that depth would surely crumple and break up a small Aircraft.
looking at Ed Noonans life he seems to have achieved a great deal as a master Mariner/Navigator, Shame he is less remembered.
Water pressure will only crumple objects where there is a pressure differential and the object isn't strong enough to withstand the pressure. So a non-pressurised fuselage wouldn't crumple and neither would the structure itself.
By: MFowler
- 19th August 2019 at 20:12Permalink- Edited 20th August 2019 at 02:18
From what I can glean from reports on the last National Geographic/TIGHAR expedition, they're not so much in the hunt for bones as they might be for DNA. The Nat Geo cadaver dogs consistently "alerted" in one specific spot on the island, where TIGHAR maintains that Earhart died, so the decision was made to scoop up some of the coral rubble and what passes for soil on Nikumaroro and see if human DNA could be extracted from it. What, if anything, was found has not been released publicly.
But ... if the 2019 team brings home more soil, and is able to extract human DNA, and from that extract information about gender, race, ancestry, etc., it leads to several interesting possibilities:
No human DNA will be found, which is likely given the extremely harsh and degrading tropical climate. That will not help or hurt TIGHAR's theory.
Human DNA will be found. Again, finding DNA in and of itself will not prove or disprove TIGHAR's theory, other than to confirm that someone died at that spot.
Human DNA will be found and they will be able to tell it's from a male. This will not prove or disprove TIGHAR's theory. Gillespie may argue that it could have been from Noonan's body, but since TIGHAR doesn't have any DNA for comparison, that's a moot point.
Human DNA will be found and they will be able to tell it's from a male, and either an Asian or Pacific Islander. Either of those disproves TIGHAR's theory and supports the original British analysis that bones found on the island in 1940 were from a Pacific Islander. Gillespie strongly disagrees with this finding.
Human DNA will be found and they will be able to tell it's from a female of European descent. TIGHAR has DNA from an Earhart relative for comparison, and if the DNA matches, TIGHAR was right, Earhart died on Nikumaroro, and we can all get on with our lives.
If either the previous expedition or this one recovers usable DNA, whichever way it comes up, DNA doesn't lie. TIGHAR is either right, or Gillespie has spent millions of dollars and thirty years on a fool's errand.
By: J Boyle
- 20th August 2019 at 02:54Permalink- Edited 20th August 2019 at 11:31
Anyone here know if useable DNA can survive 80 years in a harsh climate?
My inexpert guess is no, judging from what I've heard in similar cases.
I have a hunch the National Geographic is doing this as a TV project, with any scientific methodology taking a back seat to hype, promotion and viewers. In other words, the organization's reputation for exploration and science likely has been corrupted by the monetary realities of the real world.
In short, by getting in to bed with TIGHAR, apparently without any reservations, their objectives are seemingly one sided, thus hardly objective.
Anyone here know if useable DNA can survive 80 years in a harsh climate?
My inexpert guess is no, judging from what I've heard in similar cases.
I have a hunch the National Geographic is doing this as a TV project, with any scientific methodology taking a back seat to hype, promotion and viewers. In other words, the organization's reputation for exploration and science likely has been corrupted by the monetary realities of the real world.
In short, by getting in to bed with TIGHAR, apparently without any reservations, their objectives are seemingly one sided, thus hardly objective.
Wasn't there something a while back about NG being bought out by Fox & losing credibility?
I haven't heard the organization has been sold. Perhaps just the TV "brand" but certainly not the Society itself.
My point was whomever owns NG, the huge costs of running a multimedia enterprise is far different from the traditional, nerdy NG magazine of old.
With that you could afford to be scientifically based. With a modern media empire you need to bring in the money and pure objective research becomes a luxury.
Just my guess.
To quote the film The Right Stuff "No bucks, no Buck Rogers".
By: RPM, FF, TGT...
- 23rd August 2019 at 05:28Permalink
Laying the Groundwork...
If you have all been following the paid-up members only posting Forum, you will have noticed that Richard Gillespie started laying the groundwork for failure a few days ago. He made the suggestion of where Dr. Ballard should be intensively looking for the Electra by saying (in an assumption again) that, "If there is no damage to the tanks the Electra would float for 18 minutes and drift at less than 2 knots to the S.E. where it would sink." He then said that a "Worst Scenario" would be that it sank right there where the stern of the SS Norwich City broke off in 1939 ....", which would of course mean it would buried under "avast behind" [to use a Naval expression].
It is also a vast Ocean out there so there is a whole seabed to go at ....and three searches previously made have also failed to find anything.
My guess will be, "He didn't look where I told him to look."
Next fundraiser will be US$3 Million to hire a large floating crane to remove the Norwich City stern off of the Electra.
Next fundraiser will be US$3 Million to hire a large floating crane to remove the Norwich City stern off of the Electra.
RPM....
Actually, the next fundraiser is already underway! And YOU can be a part of it!!! Gillespie needs $8,000 because,"... we're currently producing a short video suitable for spreading on social media, illustrating how TIGHAR used the principles of scientific investigation to discover the true fate of Earhart and Noonan. The cost to complete the video is $8,000. Response has been excellent. So far, we have raised $625."
Note how he spins this: Response has been "excellent" but he's raised less than 10% of what he says he needs. He also makes the definitive statement that TIGHAR has solved the mystery. Odd that no one else on the planet agrees with that, not that that has ever slowed him down ...
I suspect this push to get a video out on social media is a foredoomed attempt to keep TIGHAR relevant if its primary reason for existence goes down in flames as a result of the National Geographic expedition's findings. Consider:
If Bob Ballard says they didn't find any definitive underwater debris, in the public's mind, Earhart was never there, despite what Gillespie or anyone else says about it.
If this (second) National Geographic land search finds nothing definitive, in the public's mind, then Earhart was never there, despite what Gillespie says about it.
If this National Geographic expedition does recover DNA, and is able to analyze it, and it's not Earhart's, then ... TIGHAR/Gillespie has been wrong for more than 30 years and has spent more than $8 million of other people's money on a snipe hunt (aka wild goose chase).
"Expedition Amelia" premiers on Oct. 20 in the USA. It's going to be an interesting evening.
Posts: 9,823
By: J Boyle - 10th August 2019 at 23:37 Permalink
It's just RG trying to enhance his pet theory.
If he tells enough people others have extensively searched around Howland, that makes his unproven (and not terribly likely or logical) Nikumaroro theory look better.
If they had made landfall on Nikumaroro, their likely would have been evidence seen when the Navy searched the place a week after their disappearance, but if they simply missed Howland, they would have sunk by the time the Navy got there.
Posts: 313
By: MFowler - 12th August 2019 at 23:22 Permalink - Edited 13th August 2019 at 00:00
This is the most interesting quote from Gillespie, in the BBC article: "Each time a search fails to find a physical 'smoking gun' the mystery grows in stature and attracts another would-be The Man Who Found Amelia. It's an interesting self-perpetuating phenomenon."
And one which Gillespie has nurtured, encouraged and prodded to higher levels at every opportunity over the last 30-plus years.
Not to mention lucrative. To the tune of more than $2.28 million in salary to him and his wife just since 2001. I don't know about anyone else here, but I think I could eke out a decent existence on an average of $143,000 a year ...
Posts: 765
By: PanzerJohn - 13th August 2019 at 09:31 Permalink
Update..
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7349883/Amelia-Earharts-plane-finally-thanks-one-millimeter-smudge-old-photograph.html
Posts: 313
By: MFowler - 18th August 2019 at 00:26 Permalink - Edited 18th August 2019 at 00:30
I'm curious what Ballard's budget is for this jaunt. TIGHAR has spent almost $7 million since 2000 in documented project costs, the majority of it on expeditions to Nikumaroro, and has found, well, nothing.
Posts: 4,796
By: ZRX61 - 18th August 2019 at 16:13 Permalink
That article is absolutely worthless. It contains the "these bones are 99% certain to be Earharts" bullshit
Posts: 88
By: Stratosphere - 18th August 2019 at 18:23 Permalink
Working on the theory that Earheart and Noonan ditched at sea and any remains of the Aircraft are in 18000 feet of Ocean would there be any tangible wreckage left?
Water pressure at that depth would surely crumple and break up a small Aircraft.
looking at Ed Noonans life he seems to have achieved a great deal as a master Mariner/Navigator, Shame he is less remembered.
Posts: 422
By: Wellington285 - 18th August 2019 at 19:17 Permalink
These bones were identified as male from the skull and pelvis which Mr Gillespie fails to mention. The length measurement of the femur taken at the time were found to be that of a shorter person. I'm sure that the way of estimating height is the same formula used today as back then. I can say that these bones are 100% not Earharts. Did see a TV programme that challenged Gillespies theory's, managed to record it is there a way of showing it on line or on here with out infringing copyright.
Ian
Posts: 1,788
By: Sabrejet - 18th August 2019 at 19:24 Permalink
Water pressure will only crumple objects where there is a pressure differential and the object isn't strong enough to withstand the pressure. So a non-pressurised fuselage wouldn't crumple and neither would the structure itself.
Posts: 313
By: MFowler - 19th August 2019 at 20:12 Permalink - Edited 20th August 2019 at 02:18
From what I can glean from reports on the last National Geographic/TIGHAR expedition, they're not so much in the hunt for bones as they might be for DNA. The Nat Geo cadaver dogs consistently "alerted" in one specific spot on the island, where TIGHAR maintains that Earhart died, so the decision was made to scoop up some of the coral rubble and what passes for soil on Nikumaroro and see if human DNA could be extracted from it. What, if anything, was found has not been released publicly.
But ... if the 2019 team brings home more soil, and is able to extract human DNA, and from that extract information about gender, race, ancestry, etc., it leads to several interesting possibilities:
Posts: 422
By: Wellington285 - 19th August 2019 at 23:40 Permalink
Hope they do better than their last attempt of getting DNA. All the DNA results were from the guy that collected the samples, some expert.
Ian
Posts: 9,823
By: J Boyle - 20th August 2019 at 02:54 Permalink - Edited 20th August 2019 at 11:31
Anyone here know if useable DNA can survive 80 years in a harsh climate?
My inexpert guess is no, judging from what I've heard in similar cases.
I have a hunch the National Geographic is doing this as a TV project, with any scientific methodology taking a back seat to hype, promotion and viewers. In other words, the organization's reputation for exploration and science likely has been corrupted by the monetary realities of the real world.
In short, by getting in to bed with TIGHAR, apparently without any reservations, their objectives are seemingly one sided, thus hardly objective.
Posts: 422
By: Wellington285 - 20th August 2019 at 07:51 Permalink
Coral has DNA, thats all they are going to find, coral DNA.
Ian
Posts: 313
By: MFowler - 20th August 2019 at 13:57 Permalink
I could expand on whose DNA was found during that particular TIGHAR expedition, but, well, it's almost too silly to be credible.
Posts: 2,024
By: D1566 - 20th August 2019 at 14:30 Permalink
Perchance a well-known band leader from WWII era? :)
Posts: 4,796
By: ZRX61 - 20th August 2019 at 20:45 Permalink
Wasn't there something a while back about NG being bought out by Fox & losing credibility?
Posts: 8,983
By: TonyT - 21st August 2019 at 10:24 Permalink
There's more.......
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/spotlight/colossal-crabs-may-hold-clue-to-amelia-earhart-fate/ar-AAG4VjA
Posts: 9,823
By: J Boyle - 21st August 2019 at 13:06 Permalink
I haven't heard the organization has been sold. Perhaps just the TV "brand" but certainly not the Society itself.
My point was whomever owns NG, the huge costs of running a multimedia enterprise is far different from the traditional, nerdy NG magazine of old.
With that you could afford to be scientifically based. With a modern media empire you need to bring in the money and pure objective research becomes a luxury.
Just my guess.
To quote the film The Right Stuff "No bucks, no Buck Rogers".
Posts: 145
By: RPM, FF, TGT... - 23rd August 2019 at 05:28 Permalink
Laying the Groundwork...
If you have all been following the paid-up members only posting Forum, you will have noticed that Richard Gillespie started laying the groundwork for failure a few days ago. He made the suggestion of where Dr. Ballard should be intensively looking for the Electra by saying (in an assumption again) that, "If there is no damage to the tanks the Electra would float for 18 minutes and drift at less than 2 knots to the S.E. where it would sink." He then said that a "Worst Scenario" would be that it sank right there where the stern of the SS Norwich City broke off in 1939 ....", which would of course mean it would buried under "avast behind" [to use a Naval expression].
It is also a vast Ocean out there so there is a whole seabed to go at ....and three searches previously made have also failed to find anything.
My guess will be, "He didn't look where I told him to look."
Next fundraiser will be US$3 Million to hire a large floating crane to remove the Norwich City stern off of the Electra.
RPM....
Posts: 313
By: MFowler - 23rd August 2019 at 13:11 Permalink
Next fundraiser will be US$3 Million to hire a large floating crane to remove the Norwich City stern off of the Electra.
RPM....
Actually, the next fundraiser is already underway! And YOU can be a part of it!!! Gillespie needs $8,000 because,"... we're currently producing a short video suitable for spreading on social media, illustrating how TIGHAR used the principles of scientific investigation to discover the true fate of Earhart and Noonan. The cost to complete the video is $8,000. Response has been excellent. So far, we have raised $625."
Note how he spins this: Response has been "excellent" but he's raised less than 10% of what he says he needs. He also makes the definitive statement that TIGHAR has solved the mystery. Odd that no one else on the planet agrees with that, not that that has ever slowed him down ...
I suspect this push to get a video out on social media is a foredoomed attempt to keep TIGHAR relevant if its primary reason for existence goes down in flames as a result of the National Geographic expedition's findings. Consider:
Posts: 43
By: Jack Deth - 26th August 2019 at 19:08 Permalink
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/2019/08/tantalizing-clue-marks-end-amelia-earhart-expedition/