Rafales for Brasil #3, Cachorro-quente!

Profile picture for user J-20 Hotdog

Member for

12 years 3 months

Posts: 3,442

2nd one filled up. found here http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/showthread.php?t=96345

so, what has Joabim said lately

Original post

Member for

11 years 9 months

Posts: 55

DATE:19/02/10
SOURCE:Flight International
Brazil's F-X2 contest prompts further dispute

A São Paulo-based body that represents almost 60% of Brazil's aerospace and defence companies has issued a scathing attack on the government's open support for the Dassault Rafale in its 36-aircraft F-X2 fighter contest.

In a public letter, the board of the CIESP organisation says it "is concerned with the conclusion of this [selection] process in which the meticulous, professional and serious work developed by the air force may be cast aside". The service's recommendations should "be abided and respected by the federal government", it adds.

The statement comes after local media reports early this month claimed that Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and defence minister Nelson Jobim had made a final choice after meeting Dassault and French government representatives on 30 January. The defence ministry denies the claim, and says it is still analysing "the political, strategic and financial aspects" of the Rafale offer, plus bids based on the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and Saab Gripen NG.

Declaring that "the French fighter, if chosen, represents a defeat", the CIESP has released unconfirmed details on the bids.

Including maintenance costs, these total $10.2 billion for the Rafale, $7.7 billion for the Super Hornet and $6 billion for the Gripen NG, it claims. At just 2,500 positions, the Dassault-led proposal would also provide the smallest number of new jobs, while forging yet-closer defence industrial links with Paris would be "a grievous error for a country that wishes to assure its sovereignty", it alleges.

Boeing manager of international business development Michael Coggins says: "The right solution for Brazil's F-X2 programme must be affordable, while guaranteeing air force supremacy in the region, national autonomy, and aerospace industrial development opportunities. Boeing believes the best way to achieve that solution is with the selection of the Super Hornet."
Dassault and Saab declined to comment.

Member for

12 years 6 months

Posts: 630

This looks like a very transparent lobbying ploy by EMBRAER. This letter was from the CIESP branch in Sao Jose dos Campos. Guess who's the #1 employer there? EMBRAER...

Member for

12 years

Posts: 3,280

This looks like a very transparent lobbying ploy by EMBRAER. This letter was from the CIESP branch in Sao Jose dos Campos. Guess who's the #1 employer there? EMBRAER...

Well, it's clear: The aviation industry (lead by Embraer, of course) prefer Gripen NG.

Why are they lobbying for Gripen? Because that gives them the best deal. It's as simple as that.

Member for

14 years 6 months

Posts: 1,447

I think the truth is half way through...True the gripen NG is a very competitive/attractive offer but to think that in a multi billion deal lobbyism doesn't play is very naive. (I say this for all contenders). Certainly Saab and boeing knew who to target to embarrass Lula and Jobim.

Now it is mostly about a struggle for influence (economical/political) regardless of aircraft qualities. I bet that negotiation that are behind the curtains are what matter now. Press releases/PR etc are of little importance.

Profile picture for user TMor

Member for

15 years 1 month

Posts: 1,498

Where is the Dassault's lobbying ? Where are the pro-Rafale press releases ?

:confused:

Member for

12 years

Posts: 3,280

Hammer Time!

@Hammer:

do you consider this to be a reliable source, or just some piece of disinformation -- please note the highlighted text:

http://www.mre.gov.br/portugues/noticiario/nacional/selecao_detalhe3.asp?ID_RESENHA=667366

In addition to having been in last place in the technical evaluation of the Brazilian Air Force, which will operate the new fighters at least the next 30 years, the French Rafale from Dassault, was not considered the best in any of the seven final criteria.
The French jet was appointed as the worst option in these five criteria: technical, logistical, technological compensation / commercial, employment generation and price.
The winner, the Gripen NG was considered better in four requirements: technical, technology transfer, employment generation and price
.

Member for

12 years

Posts: 3,280

I think the truth is half way through...True the gripen NG is a very competitive/attractive offer but to think that in a multi billion deal lobbyism doesn't play is very naive. (I say this for all contenders). Certainly Saab and boeing knew who to target to embarrass Lula and Jobim.

Now it is mostly about a struggle for influence (economical/political) regardless of aircraft qualities. I bet that negotiation that are behind the curtains are what matter now. Press releases/PR etc are of little importance.


Of course there is lobbying -- however if Embraer is a professional company it will not be influenzed by "lobbying" -- that's mainly for politicians and the "public" -- instead they will evaluate the offers from each vendor according to their own criteria and reach a decision accordingly...

Saab/Sweden is pushing industrial offsets in a big manner, that's one of their main selling points (partly to compensate for being a small country with little political influenze). Also in the Norwegian competition there was no doubt: The industry clearly preferred Gripen/Sweden to F-35/LM. The industrial offsets were just much much bigger, and also more concrete. Unless France makes a huge effort they will lose the "industrial offset" competition. And it seems they did...?

Profile picture for user Danell

Member for

10 years 6 months

Posts: 200

Where is the Dassault's lobbying ? Where are the pro-Rafale press releases ?

:confused:

Prozac ?
:D

About lobbying effectiveness... just spend some time on the brazilian web (newspapers , blogs , forums...) and you'll be stunned when you'll see how the Rafale is still popular there ;)

Lately Saab invited some admins from popular brazilian defence blogs like Defesa.net... at the same time where Military and Brazilian officials were visiting Dassault sites in France ...

Member for

12 years 6 months

Posts: 630

With all of Embraer's lobbying, makes you wonder what they'll do if Rafale does win in the end. Will they be able to kiss and make up with Dassault to cooperate on the KC-390? Or maybe they don't want to cooperate on the KC-390, despite their government's wishes?

Member for

10 years 6 months

Posts: 3,259

maybe they're afraid dassault opens an independant line in brasil? which may mean that embraer wouldn't get as much work on these fighters as if they were building them?

what's strange is that they put rafale last in basically every domain. now, let's compare the rafale and the SH (at least two fighters operational today).

rafale has a somewhat longer range, with bigger payload, beats Sh in a2a WVR confrontation, does "god only knows what" in BVR (still lots of secret stuff there, and rafales AESA radar will only enter service this year if I'm not mistaken) and yet, finishing last means finishing also behind the SH...

now, the question is, how their operational capabilities were asessed for the rafale to finish completely behind? it's just so categoric statement "rafale = BAD" that it's already looking suspect by its "categoric" nature, before even going into detail of it

Profile picture for user TMor

Member for

15 years 1 month

Posts: 1,498

(still lots of secret stuff there, and rafales AESA radar will only enter service this year if I'm not mistaken)

At best, it will enter production by the end of the year, but it's planned for 2011. The radar will be ready for the aircraft in early 2012. But at this time, i guess AdA will test it thoroughly before it really become operational.

how their operational capabilities were asessed for the rafale to finish completely behind?

Since the 3 contenders met the requirements, the end ranking may be based on costs alone :D

I don't know what part the ToT took in the process, but it seems that Jobim still discard US on this ground.

I really doubt they are based on delivery schedule.

Member for

12 years

Posts: 3,280

General Juniti Saito says, Rafale will be chosen
http://www.atribunamt.com.br/wp-content/images/imagens_do_dia/09-08-07/Juniti%20saito%20-%2008-08-07.jpg
http://www.aereo.jor.br/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/lula-e-saito.jpg

http://oglobo.globo.com/pais/mat/2010/02/23/comandante-da-fab-espera-decisao-sobre-cacas-ate-fim-de-marco-915919513.asp

Well, that's not exactly what he says -- however what he says is that the air force will fully accept Rafale if it's chosen.

"The three aircraft will serve well the Air Force, I tell you," said Saito. Information disseminated by the press recently realized that the Air Force has a preference for the Gripen NG, which is the cheapest of the three models that offer greater participation by Brazilian is a project still under development.

I'd say it's now 95% probability of a Rafale win in Brazil. Also note that the above is probably also linked to this:

http://www.ttu.fr/francais/Articles/Industrie%20%26%20materiels/brasdeferbresil.html

The tempo of delivery seems to be one of the key factors of decision makers in the Brazilian Air Force (FAB) and a French offer parallel with the delivery of Mirage 2000-9 from UAE Abu Dhabil, offering a speedier modernization means the FAB would join the military to the French solution.

I suspect one of the main reasons FAB was sceptical about Rafale was the price -- now, if they can combine 60 Mirage 2000 with,a lower number of Rafale it may become more feasible to fit into their budgets.

Now Saab should offer 60 Gripen C/D to a very good price in addition to the Gripen NG... although I think it will not help. The combination of politics + the cheap Mirage 2000 will most likely win this for France now.

Member for

10 years 6 months

Posts: 3,259

about the "cheap" mirage 2000, the UAE mirages are the most advanced of the series (not even the AdlA's ones have such capabilities, several of which are derived from the rafale development), and I've read that UAE wanted 1.5bn € for them, which, considering 63 airframes, is much cheaper than the rafale, for sure, but still remains an excellent aircraft

what's more, these mirages were a problem for the french who had to rebuy them from the UAE if they wanted to sell rafales there, while, in the same time, they had no idea what to do with these airframes next... if it ends getting them another rafale contract, these would be "the most profitable mirages 2000 ever built" ;)

Member for

12 years

Posts: 3,280

I revise my earlier estimate -- I now think it's 98% probability of Dassault winning this...

Profile picture for user mrmalaya

Member for

10 years 6 months

Posts: 4,619

i would genuinely be please for Rafale if it makes a sale, its been such a long time!

but the details of how the deal has been secured are certainly not something to worry about, it would be fantastic business for france (and a great buy for Brazil) if they end up with such a fantastic mix of advanced fighters!

This couldn't have worked even 2 years ago. Its fate:D

Member for

10 years 7 months

Posts: 305

I revise my earlier estimate -- I now think it's 98% probability of Dassault winning this...

RAFALE HAS WON ! POLITICS?? PROBABLY YES , SO WHAT ??

Member for

10 years 7 months

Posts: 305

i would genuinely be please for Rafale if it makes a sale, its been such a long time!

but the details of how the deal has been secured are certainly not something to worry about, it would be fantastic business for france (and a great buy for Brazil) if they end up with such a fantastic mix of advanced fighters!

This couldn't have worked even 2 years ago. Its fate:D

I think it is a fantastic political move for France but certainly not a fantastic business for Dassault after the latest price reduction of almost 2 Billon dollars for 36 fighters.

Profile picture for user swerve

Member for

15 years 1 month

Posts: 13,432

Rafale plus ex-UAE Mirage 2000? Hmm. Well, one can see the attractiveness of that. About 30 older Mirages refurbished to Mirage 2000-9 standard to start with, followed by a similar number of newer Mirage 2000-9 & 36 Rafale: a very effective new fighter force with good interoperability, simplified maintainability, common weapons, at a relatively modest price.

Attractive for Dassault & France, as well. They get the Rafale sale, dispose of the UAE M2Ks (thus securing that Rafale sale), & are in prime position to get a couple of follow-on orders to replace the two batches of M2Ks.