Rafales for Brasil #3, Cachorro-quente!

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Member for

14 years 5 months

Posts: 1,741

i read it has slipped to april, the decision has had more postponements that the f-35 :D
but i still think rafale will win

Member for

19 years 1 month

Posts: 742

The recurring F-X2 announcement delays directly contradict the "decision is already taken" official party line....

Delaying the announcement to April pushes it closer and closer to the October presidential elections which in turn gives a much more political conotation to this purchase. I'm sure the opposition parties will try to to block only to disturb this purchase to try to embarass the officil government candidate Dilma Roussef.... Further delaying this announcement is a very dangerous political gamble for Jobim and Lula... good luck for them.

Regards,

Hammer

Member for

15 years 8 months

Posts: 2,626

The recurring F-X2 announcement delays directly contradict the "decision is already taken" official party line....

Delaying the announcement to April pushes it closer and closer to the October presidential elections which in turn gives a much more political conotation to this purchase. I'm sure the opposition parties will try to to block only to disturb this purchase to try to embarass the officil government candidate Dilma Roussef.... Further delaying this announcement is a very dangerous political gamble for Jobim and Lula... good luck for them.

Regards,

Hammer


(1) Can the opposition block the purchase if the President wants it? I ask in terms of the constitution of Brazil. (2) If this is just a political gesture, would the reason to block disappear after an election? (3) Would any candidate with a chance of becoming the new president want to review/change Lula's decision in favour of Rafale?

Thanks for any opinion/information you can give.

Member for

19 years 1 month

Posts: 742

In a nutshell: not NOW it can`t.

The president`s party has the second largest number of senators and representatives in the Brazilian legislative body. The Oposition holds the third largest number and the PMDB party, the largest party is fluid, playing for and against the government party as it pleases. there is also a number of smaller parties that are atracted to the large money that the government is able to move around in its regular investment and expenses...

That being said there is an major presidential election scheduled for next October. Two candidates are heading the race Dilma who is the President`s party candidate and Serra who is running for the major opposition party.

Lula (the predent) is expected to anounce the F-X2 winner in April if it happens this way (and not gets postponed once again) in theory it would take at least one full year to flesh out all the contract details and to finally sign the final contract. This would put this "signing" inside the next presidential term. To be signed by someone other than the current president.

Right now the election seems it could easily go both ways, so: If Dilma wins in a landslide, the Rafale has its best chance to be confirmed one year from now. IF Serra on the other hand comes out victorious next October he may opt to cancel the whole bid once again.

Understand now?

Regards,

Hammer

Member for

15 years 8 months

Posts: 2,626

Lula (the predent) is expected to anounce the F-X2 winner in April if it happens this way (and not gets postponed once again) in theory it would take at least one full year to flesh out all the contract details and to finally sign the final contract. This would put this "signing" inside the next presidential term. To be signed by someone other than the current president.

Right now the election seems it could easily go both ways, so: If Dilma wins in a landslide, the Rafale has its best chance to be confirmed one year from now. IF Serra on the other hand comes out victorious next October he may opt to cancel the whole bid once again.

Understand now?

Regards,

Hammer


Thanks for that. I think I understand the mechanics of the situation: the winner can be selected during the Lula presidency but the contract won't be signed during his presidency. Dilma would stick with Lula's decision. Serra might not, no contract having been signed. But when you say Serra might opt to cancel the whole bid, do you mean deferral of new fighters for several years or simply a reappraissal of what to buy ie let's still buy some fighters but re-think which one to buy?

Member for

14 years 1 month

Posts: 105

Thanks for that. I think I understand the mechanics of the situation: the winner can be selected during the Lula presidency but the contract won't be signed during his presidency. Dilma would stick with Lula's decision. Serra might not, no contract having been signed. But when you say Serra might opt to cancel the whole bid, do you mean deferral of new fighters for several years or simply a reappraissal of what to buy ie let's still buy some fighters but re-think which one to buy?

This is a hard question

We can have both situation, Serra in the past have criticized the option of Lula to pospotne the FX-1.
The ex President Fernand Henrique Cardoso who started the FX-1 belong to the same party of Serra, and if do tha same thing as Lula it will suffer for that decision.

but im sure this decision will not be taken in other governament.

It will be choosen soon so dont mather Which one will be the winner

Member for

14 years 3 months

Posts: 662

This just in :

http://www.estadao.com.br/estadaodehoje/20100318/not_imp525840,0.php

In essence, the military says that all three contenders could well
do the job at hand and that they will "make do" with whichever is
handed out to them as long as they do get one and that the upcoming
elections do not put a halt to the acquisition or null the competition.

Considering the positions of DM Jobim and President Lula, this can
easily be construed as a carte blanche for the Rafale.

It saddens me somewhat though that the first export deal of our
fighter is greeted by its new users with "ah! please, we'll even
take that one" or just about!:mad:

Member for

14 years 3 months

Posts: 3,259

bah, when they get to fly one, they'll just have a smile from one ear to the other.. relax... :D

Member for

14 years 3 months

Posts: 662

I'm not sure, toocool. Coming from an F-5 or an AMX,
the first flight should see a lot of teeth gritting amidst
the huffin'n'puffing!!!

They should get CédR to give them rides at first!:p

Member for

18 years 10 months

Posts: 1,498

Final Report of the FAB proposal says that French fighter is 'more consistent'

on the table of the Minister of Defense Nelson Jobim, the final report of the Brazilian Air Force on the technical quality of the fighters that compete for the purchase by Brazil. Unlike the previous analysis, this time the Air Force re-evaluate that, considering the National Defense Strategy, the French Rafale fighters represent "the proposal more consistent." Brazil plans to buy 36 fighter jets in a deal that could reach $ 10 billion.

The seven-page report also states that in operational terms, the three jets - the French, the Swedish Gripen Ng and the American F-18 Super Hornet - technically meet.

Within a few days, the defense minister will present its own report to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who will formally choose the game to be purchased based on the arguments of Jobim.

The Rafale have two engines and the French claim that technology transfer without restriction and offer the market in South America for Brazil to export production.

Preference for French fighter

The preference of President Lula by French fighter is already known - was declared on 7 September last year during a visit by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Brasilia.

At a hearing in the Senate in 2009, the Defense Minister said: "There is actually from the government an option for France. Just that France comply with the options for technology transfer.r.

At the time, Jobim also mentioned that the transfer of technology from the Americans has been a problem for Brazil: "I showed the Americans that the U.S. law they were not favorable, since we had a series of embargoes on technology transfer recent years, showed the Americans that their tradition not recommended, "then said the minister.


http://g1.globo.com/Noticias/Politica/0,,MUL1535848-5601,00-RELATORIO+FINAL+DA+FAB+DIZ+QUE+PROPOSTA+DE+CACAS+FRANCESES+E+MAIS+CONSISTEN.html

Member for

15 years 8 months

Posts: 2,626

Reading through the article at

http://www.estadao.com.br/estadaodehoje/20100318/not_imp525840,0.php

it sounds like the air force generals are worried about a further long term postponement and are now more concerned with getting a new fighter, whatever it is.

"Os brigadeiros temem que a decisão acabe sendo atropelada pela campanha eleitoral e o desfecho seja adiado mais uma vez"

which I translate as

"The generals fear that the decision will end up being hit by the electoral campaign and the outcome will be postponed yet again"

Rafale has won the selection, hasn't it?

Member for

14 years 3 months

Posts: 662

^^^^

I think that at last i found someone who reads the links.;)

Thank you Spitfire, as usual, for that which is almost as
great as the fact that, yes, the Rafale has it made now.

This is the "permission" that frees Lula. The FAB wants
its new planes and finally caught on to the danger of
losing everything.
:rolleyes:
Good day all.

Member for

18 years 3 months

Posts: 1,447

Jobim recommend French fighter to Lula

Minister will forward to the president in the coming days an explanatory statement, accompanied by a report in favor of buying Rafale

March 19, 2010

BRASILIA
With the political decision, the pacified Air Force and a 10% reduction in the price of the package, Defense Minister Nelson Jobim, will forward to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the coming days, an explanatory statement, accompanied by a report signed by him recommending the purchase of 36 French Rafale fighters to equip the FAB.

The standoff ended after a special commission created in Brazil by Minister Jobim, integrated by the Ministries of Defense and the Treasury's own Air Force, went to France and demanded that the French government's promise by President Nicolas Sarkozy's 10% reduction of price shown in the last proposal, which was not fulfilled by Dassault, manufacturer of the Rafale. Prior to this negotiation, the French had only reduced the price of the package, estimated at U.S. $ 10 billion, only 1.8%.

The selection process also involved the Gripen, Sweden's Saab, and the F-18, manufactured by U.S. company Boeing.

Matters had been settled between the two countries, Jobim say in the explanatory memorandum that the Rafale is really the best product to meet the demands of the National Defense Strategy (END).

Plus, now, with the endorsement given by the Air Force, the government believes that all problems are overcome. At the meeting of its High Command, on Tuesday, the matter was discussed and prepared at the time was a response to an inquiry from the Minister if the Rafale met the assumptions of the Defense Strategy, receiving the endorsement of the FAB.

After receiving the report of the Coordinator of Combat Aircraft of the FAB (Copac), which placed the first fighter, the F-18 and Rafale in second third, the defense minister decided to ask an opinion of their Departments - Logistics and Mobilization and Strategic Policy and International Affairs - on the proposals of the three competitors.

Jobim wanted it to be checked in detail whether the proposals met the claims made by companies, mainly in the transfer of technology, a key issue for the government, which wanted to fulfill the National Defense Strategy

Arguments. The departments concluded that while the price of the Rafale would be the highest, the transfer of technology is the most consistent of the French. The same opinion also reiterates the arguments that have been used by the government to challenge the transfer of technology proposed by the Americans, considered as a failure and, for the Swedes, the report speaks of the dependence on transfer that the Gripen has over other countries because many of its components come from different suppliers.


http://www.estadao.com.br/estadaodeh...mp526421,0.php

Member for

18 years 3 months

Posts: 1,447

Time is short to renew the fleet
March 19, 2010

The choice of the new fighter advanced combat aircraft comes to an end as no surprise and in accordance with the will of the government. O Rafale vai custar caro, mas menos do que tem sido especulado, alguma coisa entre R$ 5,5 e R$ 6,5 bilhões, com chances de redução ao longo do tempo, afirmam assessores do ministro da Defesa, Nelson Jobim. The Rafale will be expensive, but less than has been speculated about something between $ 5.5 and $ 6.5 billion[ without maintenance costs i think], with chances to reduce over time, say aides to Defense Minister Nelson Jobim.The preference for France offer, including 36 supersonic and supplies, was on the rise since the announcement of the shortlist, which included the U.S. fighter F-18 and also the Gripen NG, Swedish.
In the Planalto, there were always negative remarks about the tangle of laws that hinder the United States sales of military systems by means of contracts with a clause for transfer of technology and uncertainty about the project NG. In addressing the delivery of knowledge, the use of the word "unrestricted" in the offer of Dassault, took advantage on the "necessary"in Boeing's one . The proposal from Saab, to participate in the final development of its aircraft, did not exceed the scope of the agreement with France, a partnership that points in different directions, including a bilateral front in international affairs. The concrete fact, real life is that the decision can wait no longer - the process accumulates 10 years of delay and the Brazilian Air Force (FAB) begins to feel the pressure of the crisis: the fleet needs to be turned off from 2015 when the Mirage 2000C / B purchased by President Lula in France will leave the scene. On the timing of its own aircraft industry, four years is, indeed, tomorrow. Whatever the chosen aircraft, it is no longer possible to guarantee the security compatibility between time and need. That is the subtext of the message of the High Command issued to Defense Minister Nelson Jobim, two days ago


http://www.estadao.com.br/estadaodeh...mp526422,0.php

Member for

14 years 3 months

Posts: 200

Wasn't Jobim one of the opponents of the Rafale? If yes, then this deal is bagged for the French.

No, since the beginning Jobim is one of the main support of the Rafale (and the strategic partnership with France ) in Brazil.
But the deal is nevertheless bagged for the French ...

Member for

15 years 8 months

Posts: 2,626

No, since the beginning Jobim is one of the main support of the Rafale (and the strategic partnership with France ) in Brazil.
But the deal is nevertheless bagged for the French ...

Is there time to go through the details and sign a contract before the elections? I imagine this has been going on in the background since Lula declared in favour of Rafale 6 months ago. I might be imagining the wrong things, of course.

Member for

14 years 3 months

Posts: 200

Is there time to go through the details and sign a contract before the elections? I imagine this has been going on in the background since Lula declared in favour of Rafale 6 months ago. I might be imagining the wrong things, of course.

I think too there are ongoing negotiations for months.
And even if a contract is not definitively signed before the elections ,what i doubt , it would be politically difficult for a new elected president to postpone F-X2 again, even if he disagrees with Lula's choice. And everyone knows it would be also a disaster for the FAB ; see above the last report posted by Arthuro:"Time is short to renew the fleet"

Member for

14 years 3 months

Posts: 3,259

apparently, Lula has decided.. not to decide...

http://www.latribune.fr/entreprises/industrie/aeronautique-defense/20100406trib000495569/avions-rafale-le-bresil-reporte-sa-decision-a-mai.html

His decision is delayed till the end of may... it seems that everybody in brasil know what they want except the president... now it's the "syndicate of metal workers of sao paulo" that claims support for the gripen. I only wonder when we'll get the national soccer team deciding who they support.