Boeing vs Eurofighter vs Lockheed for KFX

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12 years 11 months

Posts: 1,642


As to admitting I am wrong. All I was saying was Flanker Production will decrease over the next decade. As it is replaced by more modern 5th Generation Types. I hardly see anything in that statement as being wrong or not factual.

Considering that HAL, Irkut, Knaapo and Shenyang are all increasing their outputs for a major part of the coming decade, flanker numbers would be on the rise. In the next 10 years, the only bird that will come close to that production rate (or exceed it) is the F-35.

Flanker production in Russia is rising this decade, so yeah, you were wrong.
Compare the number of (mostly) export Flankers produced by Irkut and KnAAPO yearly in the 2000s, and the total Su-34 production @ NAPO + Su-35 @ KnAAPO + Su-30SM @ Irkut (not even going to include exports here)
It is clearly going up, especially compared to end of the 2000s.

As to your cute little propoganda jib, yeah, I guess signed, paid contracts are just TEH Russian propoganda11!!!. Nevermind the actual birds coming off the three big production centers, and the increasing trend to these numbers. I suspect you think suddenly production will stall, and the contracts cancelled, right?

Your inability to admit you have no basis for your claims, is as always, amusing.
There are beliefs, and there is closing your eyes and ears and screaming "LALALAL" like you are doing right now.
Are there 600 Raptors flying in your beliefs as well?

Everybody has a bias and I am no exception. That said, I stand by my statement that Flanker Production is decreasing. So, if you believe I am wrong provide the production numbers from all three plants from the start thru today and projected for the next 10 years. If, the source is reliable and supported by the majority here. I would be happy to concede that I am WRONG.

Considering that HAL, Irkut, Knaapo and Shenyang are all increasing their outputs for a major part of the coming decade, flanker numbers would be on the rise. In the next 10 years, the only bird that will come close to that production rate (or exceed it) is the F-35.

Can you provide a source that any and/or all are increasing production of parts for the Flanker Series at there respect of plants???

Member for

12 years 11 months

Posts: 1,642

Can you provide a source that any and/or all are increasing production of parts for the Flanker Series at there respect of plants???

HAL has to deliver a total of 222 of which they have delivered ~ 110 and have to deliver ~ 98 complete build Su-30Mki in the next 6 years and 14 coming from Irkut as SKD kits (total ~ 112)
Irkut has firm contracts for delivery of 60 Su-30 SM (2 delivered) by 2016.
Knaapo is committed to delivering 48 Su-35 by the end of 2015 of which 6 have been delivered as per schedule (or is it 8?) with an additional order of 48-72 expected by the end of that contract.
Also there are 124 firm orders for Su-34 till 2020 (~25 delivered).

Just in 2012 alone 10 Su-34s, 6 Su-35s, 2 Su-30SMs were delivered to VVS and ~12-14 Su-30 to IAF. All the above firms have stuck to their delivery schedule till now. You are looking at a production of a minimum of 310+ aircrafts in a period of 8 years without counting Chinese orders from Shenyang or re orders of Su-35 and Su-30SM, or any export sales.

HAL is has to deliver a total of 222 of which they have delivered ~ 110 and have to deliver ~ 98 complete build Su-30Mki in the next 6 years and 14 coming from Irkut as SKD kits (total ~ 112)
Irkut has firm contracts for delivery of 60 Su-30 SM (2 delivered) by 2016.
Knaapo is committed to delivering 48 Su-35 by the end of 2015 of which 6 have been delivered as per schedule (or is it 8?) with an additional order of 48-72 expected by the end of that contract.
Also there are 124 firm orders for Su-34 till 2020 (~25 delivered).

Just in 2012 alone 10 Su-34s, 6 Su-35s, 2 Su-30SMs were delivered to VVS and ~12-14 Su-30 to IAF. All the above firms have stuck to their delivery schedule till now. You are looking at a production of a minimum of 310+ aircrafts in a period of 8 years without counting Chinese orders from Shenyang or re orders of Su-35 and Su-30SM, or any export sales.

Many of the Su-30MKI for the Indian Air Force have already been delivered correct? Plus, it was my understanding that many of the Su-30SM are not New Built but Re-Manufacture??? (not sure) As for the 48 Su-35 I consider them a firm number and would agree. Thought I am not sure about the follow on number.

Member for

13 years 5 months

Posts: 3,381

HAL has to deliver a total of 222 of which they have delivered ~ 110 and have to deliver ~ 98 complete build Su-30Mki in the next 6 years and 14 coming from Irkut as SKD kits (total ~ 112)

I'm wondering what happens when FGFA is inevitably delayed. I assume that's what the MMRCA extension option is designed to cover, but I wonder if it might not also result in further extension of Su-30 production to cover the gap.

Member for

12 years 11 months

Posts: 1,642

Many of the Su-30MKI for the Indian Air Force have already been delivered correct?


Yeah, about 160 odd (-3).
Plus, it was my understanding that many of the Su-30SM are not New Built but Re-Manufacture??? (not sure)

There are no old thrust vectoring airframes lying around to remanufacture ;)

As for the 48 Su-35 I consider them a firm number and would agree. Thought I am not sure about the follow on number.

Its a strong possibility though.

I'm wondering what happens when FGFA is inevitably delayed. I assume that's what the MMRCA extension option is designed to cover, but I wonder if it might not also result in further extension of Su-30 production to cover the gap.

I doubt that Su-30Mki production would be further extended, for as soon as they are done making them, they will start upgrading the older ones. Besides FGFA final prototype is supposed to fly by 2017, even if it is delayed by 2-3 years, HAL would be neck deep churning out MTA, Tejas and Rafale. They can always use a breather ;)

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11 years 6 months

Posts: 578

I could see some advantages to upgrade South Korea's current fleet of F-15's. Yet, to spend so much on New Built Aircraft seems like a waste.

Their logic is different. They could go to war at any moment, so even a temporary reduction in number is unacceptable.

The situation is not like in Europe where a country could effectively disarm and nothing happens; it's a new Cold War out there in Asia, where all major countries are potential combatants toward each other.

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24 years 2 months

Posts: 4,202

If and when J-11 goes on-line, there could easily be hundreds or even over thousand Flanker version still be built. China has a huge need to modernize its armed forces and it is dubious that heir own 5th generation designs will be ready in large enough numbers before 2025.

Member for

13 years 5 months

Posts: 9,579

Can you provide a source that any and/or all are increasing production of parts for the Flanker Series at there respect of plants???

Oh for crying out loud- this info has been posted all over the forums and the web over the past several years.

Stop being so lazy and do the research yourself; no one wants to spend the time filling you in on common knowledge, because you are too stubborn to admit you were wrong.

Member for

15 years 2 months

Posts: 2,631

Fulfilling the State Defence Order for the year 2012, aviation major Sukhoi has completed delivery of Su-34 frontline bombers and Su-35S Flanker-E multirole fighters to the Russian Air Force.

The company delivered five Su-34 frontline bombers to the Defence Ministry on December 28, 2012, in addition to five more supplied earlier on December 25.

The Russian Defence Ministry has placed an order for a total of 124 Su-34s to be delivered to the Air Force by 2020.

The company also delivered six Su-35S production multi-functional fighters to the Air Force on Dec 28.

The Su-35S is a single-seat, twin engined super-manoeuvrable multirole fighter of 4++ generation. An upgraded variant of the Su-35 fighter, it employs technologies of the fifth generation that assure its superiority over similar class fighters.

Sukhoi has been contracted to supply a total of 48 Su-35S fighters to the Defense Ministry by 2015.

http://www.brahmand.com/news/Sukhoi-delivers-Su-34-bombers-Su-35S-fighters-to-Russia/10594/1/17.html

I'm sure they're easy to add up.

Member for

13 years 5 months

Posts: 9,579

Stop posting Russian propaganda Lightning.
Everyone knows NAPO was making dozens of Flankers in the 2000s but stopped, KnAAPO was churning out dozens of Su-30s, etc etc.

:p

Member for

15 years 2 months

Posts: 2,631

Ooooh blast and hell's t*ts! I keep forgetting, LM Powerpoints only and must be taken as fact. :p

Member for

15 years 3 months

Posts: 6,441

I find this amusing.. :D
First Scooter claims there is a decline in Flanker production and orders!

And when proved utterly wrong, he messes up even more on the "Russian Propaganda" lecture...
Some folks are still living in the cold war era and refuse the see the different Aviation prospect in Russia, India and China with open eyes..

Come on scooter, you can do better than this!

Member for

11 years 4 months

Posts: 306

Well, people believe what they want. You can believe the Russian Propaganda if you like.

As to admitting I am wrong. All I was saying was Flanker Production will decrease over the next decade. As it is replaced by more modern 5th Generation Types. I hardly see anything in that statement as being wrong or not factual.

think of it this way.. YF-22 flew in the very early 1990s, that didn't stop F-15 orders from rising.

most likely Flanker production will still be going up.. then going down rapidly.
Also it depends if Russia will export pak-fa beyond India. If not then either they export monkey model pak-fas to countries Russia considers monkeys or sell them Flankers. That's if the Chinese don't overtake Russian markets with J-31

Member for

11 years 1 month

Posts: 77

kfx cannot exist because there is no technogical base for koreans to make it. very easy to make plastic model. kfx is like iranian stealth, but at least iranian stealth you can sit in it.

Member for

11 years 1 month

Posts: 77

Koreans hate China more than Japan.

koreans are strange. japan kill more koreans than chinese and china protect korea from foreign invasions for thousands of years.

Member for

18 years 9 months

Posts: 13,432

South Korea has the advantage of being able to draw on the expertise of American & W. European suppliers. It doesn't need to do everything itself. And its own technology is much more advanced than that of Iran.

As for your bizarre & factually incorrect political rantings - I suggest that you desist forthwith.

Member for

13 years 5 months

Posts: 3,381

I doubt that Su-30Mki production would be further extended, for as soon as they are done making them, they will start upgrading the older ones. Besides FGFA final prototype is supposed to fly by 2017, even if it is delayed by 2-3 years, HAL would be neck deep churning out MTA, Tejas and Rafale. They can always use a breather ;)

Hmm yes, these are good points. Thanks. I do think an FGFA delay is likely, either at the Indian end or the Project 30 end.

Member for

11 years 1 month

Posts: 77

South Korea has the advantage of being able to draw on the expertise of American & W. European suppliers. It doesn't need to do everything itself. And its own technology is much more advanced than that of Iran.

As for your bizarre & factually incorrect political rantings - I suggest that you desist forthwith.

i am not sure what are you saying.
iran does not have much expertise to follow because they are isolated so they developed many things on their own like tanks, ships, helicopters and others.
korea want to make these same things but need alot of help to do it and mostly from Americans so it is true that they do not have industrial base but need to rely on the industrial base of others.