KF-X/IF-X & TF-X for Europe?

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I'd say non-US/European fighters have a near 0% chance of selling anything in Europe in the same way European fighter manufacturers generally don't get a real look in in North Asian and many South East Asian airforces.

Politics plays a huge role in things like fighter procurement. Other issues are spares/maintenance support, national interest and local industrial requirements as well as pride.

I agree with Sign in that countries like Romania will rely on used 4th generation jets (i.e., F-16AM/BM) and then they will operate pathetically small numbers - 8-14 a/c.

Come 2025-40 the Western Europeans will probably be launching another joint fighter. France might even stick around as their reduced fleet of 225 jets is no longer viable for sustaining fighter production.

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I'd say non-US/European fighters have a near 0% chance of selling anything in Europe in the same way European fighter manufacturers generally don't get a real look in in North Asian and many South East Asian airforces.

Politics plays a huge role in things like fighter procurement. Other issues are spares/maintenance support, national interest and local industrial requirements as well as pride.

I agree with Sign in that countries like Romania will rely on used 4th generation jets (i.e., F-16AM/BM) and then they will operate pathetically small numbers - 8-14 a/c.

Come 2025-40 the Western Europeans will probably be launching another joint fighter. France might even stick around as their reduced fleet of 225 jets is no longer viable for sustaining fighter production.

Maybe France and Germany will do it after all in 2025-2040, Gripen E is good enough for Sweden (with complement of UCAV) until 2040 or even longer.
The rest will stuck to there 4 gen upgrades, until 2040, maybe a stealth UCAV complement i think.

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I'd say non-US/European fighters have a near 0% chance of selling anything in Europe in the same way European fighter manufacturers generally don't get a real look in in North Asian and many South East Asian airforces.

that's good because Turkey is in Europe. Thus they have access to European markets ;)

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Maybe France and Germany will do it after all in 2025-2040, Gripen E is good enough for Sweden (with complement of UCAV) until 2040 or even longer.
The rest will stuck to there 4 gen upgrades, until 2040, maybe a stealth UCAV complement i think.

I don't think many European air forces will be buying stealth UCAVs unless there's a big change in the global strategic outlook.

Most European AF are becoming police forces with only limited peace time defence capabilities (aka air policing and humanitarian/civil defence).

Even the Luftwaffe seems to be heading that way - apparently there's not much of an emphasis on the ground attack role in the Eurofighter wings. After Tornado goes the way of the dodo in 2020, there's only 140 Eurofighters and by the looks of it, the Germans aren't too interested in maintaining any significant offensive capability with them.

that's good because Turkey is in Europe. Thus they have access to European markets

I don't think any European state will buy a Turkish fighter aircraft in the next few decades.

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that's good because Turkey is in Europe. Thus they have access to European markets ;)

Turkey does seem to have a lot of money to invest in other European countries that are struggling economically. However, Turkey is kind of seen as the black sheep of the family when it comes to Europe and there's some resent against them because a lot of jobs were lost to Turkey, which would make any decision to buy Turkey design/made expensive hardware as political suicide. Additionally, most European countries have better relations with the Western European industry, such as that of UK, France, Germany, Spain and Sweden.

Best regards,

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And it seems American teen series to be produced by the end of this decade. Then I think there will be fighter gap in global market if Americans dont fund alternative to F35. I think it is good oppurtunity for KF-X and TF-X projects.

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And it seems American teen series to be produced by the end of this decade. Then I think there will be fighter gap in global market if Americans dont fund alternative to F35. I think it is good oppurtunity for KF-X and TF-X projects.

Yes, I think so.

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It could be an option for countries seeking freedom from ITAR / US restrictions.

No because the ones that are good enough will have US/European components thus will not be sold to countries without permission from the countries where those components come from. Like they would allow a competing fighter to win sales when they can veto the deal? The ones that don't have US/European components won't be as good.

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And it seems American teen series to be produced by the end of this decade. Then I think there will be fighter gap in global market if Americans dont fund alternative to F35. I think it is good oppurtunity for KF-X and TF-X projects.

If you look at procurement plans, most countries capable of operating such aircraft are scheduled to have ordered/selected their new fighters by 2020. That covers them for next 30-40 years.

KF-X/TF-X probably won't be runners in these competitions.

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The ones that don't have US/European components won't be as good.

like the j-31 right

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Maybe France and Germany will do it after all in 2025-2040, Gripen E is good enough for Sweden (with complement of UCAV) until 2040 or even longer.
The rest will stuck to there 4 gen upgrades, until 2040, maybe a stealth UCAV complement i think.

Having recently talked with industrials, they doubt that UK will purchase final FCAS product (they believe they are involved in mainly to build technology brics). On the other hand, Germany (which is not a F-35 client) seem greedy to step in.

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like the j-31 right

FC-31 (not inducted in PLAAF so no J) ;)

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BAE confirmed in TFX deal today:

bae-systems-signs-heads-of-agreement-for-a-future-contract-with-turkish-aerospace-industries-for-tf-x-programme

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Britain and Turkey signed a defense deal worth more than 100 million pounds on Saturday to develop Turkish fighter jets, opening the way to deeper cooperation over the lifetime of the project.

In Ankara to strengthen ties with Turkey as she navigates Britain's departure from the European Union, Prime Minister Theresa May hailed the deal, saying it showed "that Britain is a great, global, trading nation and that we are open for business".

The deal, announced by May and Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, involves BAE Systems and TAI (Turkish Aerospace Industries) working together to develop the TF-X Turkish fighter program

Thinking of the techno-political aspects of this deal (Turkey needs technology input from an acceptable foreign country), I can believe something could come of this. UK would probably like the option of ordering a non-F35 "strings-free" stealth aircraft in a decade or so. However, is 100 million or so a real commitment to harnessing BaE Systems? How serious is Turkey's TF-X Turkish fighter program?

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Thinking of the techno-political aspects of this deal (Turkey needs technology input from an acceptable foreign country), I can believe something could come of this. UK would probably like the option of ordering a non-F35 "strings-free" stealth aircraft in a decade or so. However, is 100 million or so a real commitment to harnessing BaE Systems? How serious is Turkey's TF-X Turkish fighter program?

I called it some time ago.. TF-X will end up basically being a mid-weight stealth aircraft with Eurofighter guts.

I think it's more apparent for the UK to do it with out the EU or US, now that May and Trump seemed to disagree on foreign policy.

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KF-X/IF-X & TF-X for Europe?

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There are many indications, that (results of the) projects KF-X/IF-X & TF-X can be a very good alternatives for future air forces of European countries in 2030s and later.

Because:

- there will be no other alternative to F-35 for NATO/western countries

- both should be more affordable than F-35

- both will be full NATO compatibile

- both will use results of European R&D and can help and bring benefits (and employees) for European industry in many areas (SAAB, Eurojet etc.)

- many European countries will need relatively cheap and affordable replacement for 4th generation fighters in 2030s and later, for example: Finland, Sweden, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, (Germany? :rolleyes:)…

(BTW both fighters could have good export potential: KF-X/IF-X especially in Southeast Asia and Pacific region – Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore… – and TF-X in Middle East and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Morocco and…Azerbaijan of course.)

Geo

This is complicated. Lockheed is a quasi superstate entity. They have people in defense departments. It is going to be really really hard for these companies to penetrate markets

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Yes, i too don't think there will be a new European fighter until ~2040,
A2G UCAV from 2025-2030.

Just goes to show that the EU really isn't scared of Russia. Because if they really did see it as a threat, they would want to counter the 100+ Raptor equivalents stationed all over the Russian federation.

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Thinking of the techno-political aspects of this deal (Turkey needs technology input from an acceptable foreign country), I can believe something could come of this. UK would probably like the option of ordering a non-F35 "strings-free" stealth aircraft in a decade or so. However, is 100 million or so a real commitment to harnessing BaE Systems? How serious is Turkey's TF-X Turkish fighter program?

At this early stage, I'd say 100 million is a hefty commitment. This is a pretty big indictment on the F 35 arrangement.

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Alternatively, its a great way for BAE to keep a team working on an LO manned design as it waits for the UK to decide its plans for the future.