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By: 26th November 2013 at 14:55 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
-if this happens... it could be the first of a flood of orders.
All the "little countries" needing simple air patrol duties will be dumping their F5/MiG21 and other assorted cold-war era planes and getting these as replacement. Since USA, Russia, EU no longer offer a true low cost fighter anymore... even the last J7 is off the production line now, so expect the JF17 / T50 to really take off in the next few years.
Mexico - looking to retire F5 and T33
Philipines - almost certain
Iraq - almost certain now that the L159 deal is cancelled
Singapore - possibility for replacing remaining F5s
Libya - maybe to rebuild their air force from scratch
Vietnam - to replace their MiG21s... why not? MiG35 would be too heavy, and they certainly won't buy JF17 :D
Iran - If sanctions get lifted, they'd want a hundred of these at least...
Morocco - low cost to augment their F16 / MF2000
DRC - their budget is going up now and they need some decent patrol fighters to cover east and west of the country.
Saudi Arabia - possibility?
Kuwait - Due to their parliament restricting defence spending, they could be a future customer?
and many others...
By: 26th November 2013 at 16:10 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
-Iran won't get T/FA-50. period
By: 26th November 2013 at 16:35 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
-if this happens... it could be the first of a flood ofSingapore - possibility for replacing remaining F5s
.
Singapore ? They already replace their F-5 with F-15SG and F-16 Block 52...no place for FA-50..While their LIFT already used M-346..T-50 already history when that Italian LIFT beat them.
By: 26th November 2013 at 16:47 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
-if this happens... it could be the first of a flood of orders.All the "little countries" needing simple air patrol duties will be dumping their F5/MiG21 and other assorted cold-war era planes and getting these as replacement. Since USA, Russia, EU no longer offer a true low cost fighter anymore... even the last J7 is off the production line now, so expect the JF17 / T50 to really take off in the next few years.
Mexico - looking to retire F5 and T33
Philipines - almost certain
Iraq - almost certain now that the L159 deal is cancelled
Singapore - possibility for replacing remaining F5s
Libya - maybe to rebuild their air force from scratch
Vietnam - to replace their MiG21s... why not? MiG35 would be too heavy, and they certainly won't buy JF17 :D
Iran - If sanctions get lifted, they'd want a hundred of these at least...
Morocco - low cost to augment their F16 / MF2000
DRC - their budget is going up now and they need some decent patrol fighters to cover east and west of the country.
Saudi Arabia - possibility?
Kuwait - Due to their parliament restricting defence spending, they could be a future customer?and many others...
Mexico - good candidate for secondhand F-16. Came damn close to buying Gripen already. Not a shoo-in for F-50, but possible.
Saudi Arabia - not a chance. The future is Typhoon & F-15SA, with Hawk for training. Already ordered. No room for low-end fighters.
Singapore - Ananda's right.
Libya - don't need anything except refurbs of current aircraft in the short term, & will be able to afford high-end fighters once they've sorted themselves out. Well, if they do - & if they don't they may not buy anything.
Morocco - nothing needed for the time being.
DRC - what?!! Any order for supersonic jets would be entirely for officials to steal.
You missed out Tunisia.
By: 26th November 2013 at 22:44 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
-yeaa. I mean it was just a "quick list"... I guess you can add some other potentials to the list like:
Azerbaijan? (they have shown interest)
Thailand?
Ethiopia? (good possibility for a low end fighter)
Egypt? (though JF17 seems more likely)
Argentina? (though I reckon they'll probably end up buying a load of Kfirs)
Peru - they are already buying trainers from korea...
and many other potential buyers in developing countries... who knows, they may even get a sale in Eastern Europe if they offer a decent enough "package"... would have been interesting to see Romania or Bulgaria opting for it...
By: 27th November 2013 at 11:47 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
-Azerbaijan - Dunno. Maybe. But also reported as showing an interest in JF-17.
Thailand - It'd make a lot more sense to buy more Gripen, & a cheaper trainer to replace Alpha Jet & L-39 when necessary, but one never knows. There have been reports of interest.
Ethiopia - may stick with Sukhois. Range matters to Ethiopia.
Egypt - agree that JF-17 seems more likely, especially given the deterioration in relations with the USA
Argentina - Unlikely. The air force would hold out for something higher-end, & the budget will only be enough for low-end or second hand, so probably second hand, as you say.
Peru - Hmm. Possible. The MiG-29s & Mirage 2000 refurbishments should keep them going at least another ten years, but the Su-25s & A-37s seem to be struggling to stay airworthy, so maybe they could be bought with a view to them being supplemented in the future by a high-end replacement for the MiGs & Mirages.
E. European NATO countries want to piggy-back on logistics of allies, or have support close at hand. You can do that with F-16s or a European type (you can train in Sweden & be home every weekend), so they have a huge advantage.
By: 28th November 2013 at 00:26 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
-Su-25 engines are the weak point of keeping them airborne. The Su-39 update or the S-54 trainer would have kept production alive. Without new orders it made no sense to keep the production running a decade ago. Its not like the Chinese cloned it. The parts are running thin for everyone outside the larger clients.
Posts: 1,620
By: wilhelm - 26th November 2013 at 12:10
It looks as though Botswana is looking seriously at the T-50 and FA-50 to replace its F-5 fleet.
http://www.aafjournal.co.za/news/botswana-set-purchase-south-korean-trainer-and-fighter-aircraft
If this comes to fruition, it will be the third export order after Indonesia and the Phillipines. (Although I'm unsure whether the Phillipines deal is actually signed off yet.)