What if: Iran-Iraq- peace in 1982, AF evolution

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As it is known, after the initial iraqi gains in this war (1980-1988), they were stopped and slowly pushed back from iranian territory, reaching the old border by May 1982. At his point Saddam offered peace, but the hardline mullahs (aka morons) decided to continue the war to occupy Iraq basically, inspite of (obviously correct) advice not to do so. Hence the subsequent carnage, huge human and material losses on both sides- but more so Iran, they have gained nothing and wrecked their country and had 1 million killed in the process. But let's say the less extremist mullahs prevail, and they agree to the cessation of hostilities in June 1982. What will happen with IRIAF and IrAF afterwards? It appears the soviets were trying to get Iran on their side, would there be significant soviet aircraft and other weapons purchased from say 1983 until 1991 at least, maybe well after (Su-27/30 and MiG-31 even in the nineties-perhaps the New Russia would have really needed those money and needed to keep and important ally- by then- and not bow to US pressure this time)? They had 250 F-4, F-14 and F-5s left in 1982, but still under the embargo, perhaps significant numbers of Su-22M-4, MiG-23ML/MLD, MiG-25R/PD, Su-25, MiG-29 and Su-24MK (maybe even chinese J-7s) would be aquired to mostly replace them? Would Iraq turn more toward the west (or rather be supported by), more in the GCC camp, getting for instance apart from over 100 Mirage F1EQs, 50 Mirage-2000s, US aircraft like F-20 or F-16s, maybe british Hawk trainers/light attackers, to obviously "deter" Iran, in addition to the soviet aircraft they had left (closer to 200 imo, maybe even more, rather than the 100 quoted in some sources), plus again maybe some J-7s from China too? How about other issues, like do they both engage in a race to become nuclear, can they before 1990? Any influence of the Afghanistan war? (apparently the iranians were supporting the mujahadeen). How about Israel? Or in the 1991 Gulf War Iraq will be replaced with Iran (say to stop their nuclear program- extremely unlikely unless they invade someone for a cassus belli imo), how is that going to pan out? If we have BOTH of them nuclear will we also have KSA nuclear too, and even Egypt? How would the ME and the airforces of these two countries will look in the nineties and up to today?
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Profile picture for user MadRat

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Errr, no. The revolution insured no American help into the future. You must not have been around to miss the geopolitics of the situation.
Profile picture for user Y-20 Bacon

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um no.. Iran hated the Soviets. Americans #1 satan, but Soviets #2. Soviets preferred Iraq because it was led by Super Mario. basically, Iraq wuold continue to build up with Russian weapons, moving to Su-30 then Pak-fa Iran would align m ore with China and get J-20 they will finally have war in 2020 and then we can finally see Pak-fa vs J-20 you happy?

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9 years 10 months

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Errr, no. The revolution insured no American help into the future. You must not have been around to miss the geopolitics of the situation.
Um, re-read my post i said IRAQ would have leaned closer to GCC/US, not Iran. Remember, US were good buddies with Iraq during this war (also buddies with Iran too btw- remember Contra and similar stuff). US (and the israelis etc.) wanted none of them to win over the other, so they made sure of that.

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9 years 10 months

Posts: 2,114

um no.. Iran hated the Soviets. Americans #1 satan, but Soviets #2. Soviets preferred Iraq because it was led by Super Mario.
After 1988 they switched to USSR (because they were isolated), they had a lot of weapons buys on the line for the early nineties, but USSR dissolution and US pressure stopped most. Peace in 1982 would still have them isolated so USSR and China (and NK etc.) are the most logical choices to build up depleted weapons stocks, plus until early nineties at least USSR will not budge to US pressure. So whatever the iranians could have bought and have money for (which USSR would have very much welcomed), they would have got it all. Hell maybe USSR doesn't even fall with several tens of billions coming from Iran, who knows.
Profile picture for user Y-20 Bacon

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Um, re-read my post i said IRAQ would have leaned closer to GCC/US, not Iran. Remember, US were good buddies with Iraq during this war (also buddies with Iran too btw- remember Contra and similar stuff). US (and the israelis etc.) wanted none of them to win over the other, so they made sure of that.
umm no. Madrat is correct in that you don't fully understand the dynamics of the region. Maybe because you're too young. the US wasn't buddies with Iran. They only got involved with them hoping to get back captured American hostages, and to fund operations in Latin America. Most of the world sided with Iraq because they didn't want Iran to export a theocracy to all the oil producing nations which was a very real threat given that most of the oil producers were dictatorships (secular or royalty) The only reason why the Russians deal with Iran is because they can get away with charging high prices and blackmailing them (no one else will sell to them other than the Chinese), which is why Iranian purchase of Russian weapons is limited.