Iran update: J-10, MiG-35 or Rafale?

Profile picture for user Y-20 Bacon

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6 years 7 months

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with sanctions being removed, everyone and their mother are writing speculative articles about Iran wanting to update its air force after decades
like this
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/08/iran-france-cooperation-warplanes.html#

the main candidates are the same: mig-35, j-10b, and a dark horse, the Rafale.

which do you think is

1. the best option for Iran
2. the likeliest option Iran will actually do

some pros and cons

mig-35:
+ familiarity with mig-29
- relations with russia is complicated. half partner half rival for regional influence

j-10b
+ iran has very good relations with china, no competing interests
- iran didn't have good experiences with their j-7s and might be reluctant to buy again

rafale
+ perhaps the best of the 3 options
- probably a lot of hostile reaction from sunni countries that are buying Rafale, and US. I dont think France has the balls to say no.

Original post
Profile picture for user TR1

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9 years 2 months

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Iran apparently (via Soleimani) are the ones who convinced Russia to join them in Syria.
Russia was also critical in arguing IRan's case in the Nuclear deal.

They better buy Russian!

I think they will go Flanker.

Profile picture for user ink

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The deal, whoever they sign it with, had better come with a high degree of tech transfer. If I was Iranian, I would also want co-development of a light trainer type (to be built in Iran), co-development of a light attach helicopter and a light utility helicopter (both to be built in Iran), licences for a whole host of other kit...

Also, whatever fighter they choose, it's got to have a lot of potential for growth... Gen 4 is dying, by the time a new Iranian fighter is delivered and in service it will need to run with the big dogs.

Ultimately, nobody's to be trusted. If I was Iranian, I'd probably go with the Chinese (unless I could get in on the FGFA!!).

Profile picture for user Rii

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France? You have to be joking.

It's Russia or China or, preferably, both.

Profile picture for user j_jza80

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I though Iran had an indigenous 5th Gen capability?

http://cdn.thewire.com/media/old_wire/img/upload/2013/02/04/AP131781716308/lead_large.jpg

:highly_amused:

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I've heard that they will go for the Su-35.

Profile picture for user MadRat

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They should fly a hi-lo mix of J-10A with Al-31FN and Su-30M. With their constant tinkering, do you really want them to have Su-35? Plus the Iranian AF doctrine is built around heavy two-seaters.

Profile picture for user Nicolas10

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They would be foolish to buy the Rafale that's for sure.

Nic

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Would France even sell it to them?

Profile picture for user QuantumFX

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Would France even sell it to them?

^^^ This

PS:

MiG-35 would be the choice from the list. MiG-35 would be I think less controversial than the S-300 sale.

It is still unclear whether the J-10A is cleared for export. There is also the engine issue. Only recently we got hints of WS-10 usage and that too with J-10B. Never seen a J-10A with WS-10. Plus, I think people underestimate Israel's ability to influence PRC under the table.

Profile picture for user Nicolas10

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Would France even sell it to them?

They would probably agree to a deal and then the americans/israelis would pressure dear leader to cut the deal and pay penalties instead.

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4 years 4 months

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It'll be interesting to identify what could possibly replace the F-14 and Phoenix. That would be more of a Flanker role, possibly with R-37M integrated for export. An R-37M on an Su-35 would certainly be a useful capability for them.

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They would probably agree to a deal and then the americans/israelis would pressure dear leader to cut the deal and pay penalties instead.

Then Eqyptians would have to learn Iranian as well as Russian.:D
Profile picture for user MadRat

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Ideally they would be limited to MiG-35, so they are less threatening when they obtain nukes. I imagine they will have to kill off the Tomcats sooner than 2025. Let's hope Moscow doesn't export a full squadron of MiG-31 to them. And let's hope they do not obtain PAKFA.

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Ideally they would be limited to MiG-35, so they are less threatening when they obtain nukes. I imagine they will have to kill off the Tomcats sooner than 2025. Let's hope Moscow doesn't export a full squadron of MiG-31 to them. And let's hope they do not obtain PAKFA.

As far as I know the MiG-31 is out of production, but I guess it's possible for legacy stock to be exported.

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So any Iranian member here can give insight :3 ?

Would love to see some insider information on the requirements.

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Iran should all three that will be in production. MIG-35/Su-34/Su-35. Preferrably 300 each. even at $100m each. it is $30b. Plus another $30b for IL-78/A-100/Missile.
Such large Airforce will ensure that Arabs and Turks will bankrupt trying to compete with it.
big Iranian airforce mean that Irak will not have to spend on too big airforce.

Profile picture for user Tu 160

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300 of each lol,900 combat fighters,that is insane. It whould take up 50%+ of Russia's fighter production capacity for years and interfere with Russian VVS rearmament. Iran buying 100-200 fighters is more reasonable. Iran should buy Su35,Su34,Su30SM2,Mig35 and Yak130 equipped with radar as a light fighter and attack aircraft and it whould be wise of them to buy attack helos as well.
did someone say Iran buying Pakfa lol

Iran should all three that will be in production. MIG-35/Su-34/Su-35. Preferrably 300 each. even at $100m each. it is $30b. Plus another $30b for IL-78/A-100/Missile.
Such large Airforce will ensure that Arabs and Turks will bankrupt trying to compete with it.
big Iranian airforce mean that Irak will not have to spend on too big airforce.
Attachments

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8 years 3 months

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they can sell production license with upfront fees. Its Imperial Iranian airforce need to cover area from Damscus to Dahran to Saana. 900 to 1000 is bare minimum

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300 of each lol,900 combat fighters,that is insane. It whould take up 50%+ of Russia's fighter production capacity for years and interfere with Russian VVS rearmament. Iran buying 100-200 fighters is more reasonable. Iran should buy Su35,Su34,Su30SM2,Mig35 and Yak130 equipped with radar as a light fighter and attack aircraft and it whould be wise of them to buy attack helos as well.
did someone say Iran buying Pakfa lol

It's cheaper for a nation like Iran to buy and operate a single multi-role capable aircraft, that's why I say Su-35, or failing that Su-30, with maybe a few Yak-130s for training. MiG-35 has relatively limited range and A2G and the Su-34 has limited A2A.
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It would be ideal if Iran continues to convert F-5's over to Azarakhsh, a maximum possible of 65-70. Plenty of suitable Sidewinder replacements. Probably needs new radar and could lose the guns.

F-4's need replacing; there are currently around 60-65. The two-seat MiG-35 fills the role. There are also two dozen MiG-29's to replace.

Su-25 isn't really necessary. Flying airframes were sent back to Iraq to fight ISIS. Doesn't really fill any role. Yak-130 is the closest modern equivalent.

Dassault Mirage F.1 could be upgraded, or money invested in new type to replace; maximum of 24 involved. J-10A would be a suitable replacement, although it's perhaps capable of going on without replacement anytime soon. Better to keep F.1's than Azarakhsh.

The best fighter to replace is obviously the Grumman F-14 Tomcat. Only 35-45 are left, nobody has an exact count. They still show up in pictures and videos so they do continue to fly. Su-30M is the most comparable option, although Western countries would blow a gasket. I have zero doubt they would reject secondhand MiG-31's and R-33; the most similar role player to F-14A and AIM-54A. They both would be a destabilizing force IMHO.