Iran update: J-10, MiG-35 or Rafale?

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10 years 11 months

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Ideally they would be limited to MiG-35, so they are less threatening when they obtain nukes. I imagine they will have to kill off the Tomcats sooner than 2025. Let's hope Moscow doesn't export a full squadron of MiG-31 to them. And let's hope they do not obtain PAKFA.

that's a good point. Would Moscow be willing to sell them a wide range of things? they could possibly limit them to a few defensive oriented weapons.
Moscow restrained itself on the type of stuff they sold to Syria and Pakistan.

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13 years 5 months

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If Russia doesn't sell, China will.

If Iran plays things right they could benefit considerably from the attentions and mutual anxieties of Russia, China, and India in the years and decades ahead.

To say nothing of the benefits of probably being the safest long-term bet in an increasingly unstable region (the "regime" may change or even "fall" but it's a safe bet that the Iranian nation will still be there at the end of it. Persia prevails.)

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12 years 7 months

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that's a good point. Would Moscow be willing to sell them a wide range of things? they could possibly limit them to a few defensive oriented weapons.
Moscow restrained itself on the type of stuff they sold to Syria and Pakistan.

that is past tense. There was belief in Moscow that if it start invading Europe again Israel/Jews will be restraining US from helping Europe. so bargaining with Israel. but Ukraine happened and than Iran nuclear deal that Obama determined to implement it regardless of Israel. so there is not much importance left for Israel. Stay tune.

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151022/1028967245/russia--un-iran-missile.html
Russia's UN Envoy Warns US: Don't 'Sensationalize' Iran Missile Test

China neither has the technology/Production capacity or transport to quickly replenish wars in Middleast. so there is no competition at all.

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18 years 10 months

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Those "upgraded" F5s could be upgraded a bit like the Mig 21 BIZON. A recent radar + ECM & R77/73. Maybe even an IRST & they're good to go.

Nic

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11 years 4 months

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For me first thing obtain an extra 20 SU-24's plus spares for them and currant fleet . second try and put together a deal to build 120 JF-17's in house to replace Mirage F-1, F-7,F-5 and Saeqeh . Thirdly if the money is there do a deal for 80 SU-30MK to replace F-4 and F-14s other things that will need looking at will be a C-130 replacement new attack helicopters new mid- heavy lift helicopters

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8 years 7 months

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If Russia doesn't sell, China will.

Which reminds me, they were on about exporting the J-31...

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12 years 3 months

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For me first thing obtain an extra 20 SU-24's plus spares for them and currant fleet . second try and put together a deal to build 120 JF-17's in house to replace Mirage F-1, F-7,F-5 and Saeqeh . Thirdly if the money is there do a deal for 80 SU-30MK to replace F-4 and F-14s other things that will need looking at will be a C-130 replacement new attack helicopters new mid- heavy lift helicopters

You don't replace a Mirage F1 with a JF17. Dynamically its performances are still the best of the two and with a cheap upgrade its systems will certain outmatch that of the later. Add training, spare etc.. And This would be money lost for nothing

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11 years 4 months

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You don't replace a Mirage F1 with a JF17. Dynamically its performances are still the best of the two and with a cheap upgrade its systems will certain outmatch that of the later. Add training, spare etc.. And This would be money lost for nothing

There is no bigger fan of the Mirage F-1 MF2000 than me however it is unlikely that Iran will get the MF-2000 upgrade and the toy box that goes with it. However 120 JF-17's built on an in house line will have some big pluses and operating 120 of one type over 24 of this one 30 of that one 50 of another will cut the training and logistics problems. remember that the MF-2000 upgrade costs 15 million dollars

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12 years 3 months

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Yes, you are right. See my remark as more rhetorical than an analysis of the Iranian situation.

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14 years 1 month

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You don't replace a Mirage F1 with a JF17. Dynamically its performances are still the best of the two and with a cheap upgrade its systems will certain outmatch that of the later. Add training, spare etc.. And This would be money lost for nothing
Sure you do.. Dynamically, the FC-1 is at least on par, with the economics of the engine being a league ahead.. Add limited airframe life left and general unavailability of French hardware to Iran and you can start dragging your F1EQs to the scrapyard right away.

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12 years 3 months

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Sure you do.. Dynamically, the FC-1 is at least on par, with the economics of the engine being a league ahead.. Add limited airframe life left and general unavailability of French hardware to Iran and you can start dragging your F1EQs to the scrapyard right away.

I am sorry but when we will see a 17 at mach1 hugging ground or a FC1 matching the time to climb to 40kft of the Mirage, I might agree with you.
It's an old timer, yes, but among the products of the new entrants in the industry (17, 10 or Teja), it still has teeth.

This is why I wrote that it does not make sense to replace it with a jf17/FC1. Obsolescence and remaining lifetime can be treated more economically (in theory).

A squadron of F1 carrying a modernized Exocet would be a serious threat to the world economy for example. I do not see an FC1 having such impact (bold example).

Then if Iran did not have any F1, my answer would have been diametrically different.

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11 years 2 months

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Iran would be best off now buying about 50-100 Mig29M2, they are about twice as cheap as Su35 and cheaper to operate and the Mig production is not overburdened like the KNAAPO,NAPO and Irkut factories so Iran could receive the Mig29M2 very quickly after making an order while if they order a Su35 they could wait a very long time as Su35 and Su34 production is at full capacity fulfilling the Russian VVS order. Its best to have a mix of medium and heavy fighters as opposed to just heavy and Iran would be better off ordering Su35 or Su34 later.

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14 years 8 months

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Those "upgraded" F5s could be upgraded a bit like the Mig 21 BIZON. A recent radar + ECM & R77/73. Maybe even an IRST & they're good to go.

That'd probably do the job for the next decade. Give the F-4 fleet a refresh as well. After that time, Iran's international relationships should have stablised and they can select a long-term fleet based on whom they feel will be the most reliable partner.

How is the indigenous helicopter production proceeding? The 214 is still a capable medium-lift type, the only thing it really concedes to the S-70 is ballistic tolerance. Keep the 214s flying, add some second-hand Chinooks to update the fleet ( they use the same engine as the 214, useful commonality ). Transport fleet does seem to need some attention, I wonder how Airbus would respond to a request for A400s...?

Really I don't see a point rushing into a general fleet replacement programme, there are no pressing first-tier threats to Iran. Better right now to concentrate on personnel and training using known and indigenously-supported assets upgraded with modern sensors and weapons. Once the systems are up to a modern standard they could even start to participate in international operations to cross-train with other nations.

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14 years 1 month

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I am sorry but when we will see a 17 at mach1 hugging ground or a FC1 matching the time to climb to 40kft of the Mirage, I might agree with you.
I can't see why it would not be able to match that.. It's nothing exceptional, IMHO..
The fact that South Africans seriously considered replacing the ATAR 9K50 by SMR-95 (an export variant of RD-33N, basically the same core as today's RD-93) should be a good indicator for you..

This is why I wrote that it does not make sense to replace it with a jf17/FC1. Obsolescence and remaining lifetime can be treated more economically (in theory).

A squadron of F1 carrying a modernized Exocet would be a serious threat to the world economy for example. I do not see an FC1 having such impact (bold example).

Then if Iran did not have any F1, my answer would have been diametrically different.

But Iran does not really have F1s. There are like 11 airframes to be reckoned with: two EQ-2s, five EQ-6s and four BQ-3s. Most of them don't even have fully functional RWR.. There are no missiles for them.. Upgrades are not available as I cannot see French ASTRAC making a deal with Iran..

You can hardly make a squadron of these, let alone dream about modernized Exocets. Give it up, it just doesn't make sense.

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12 years 3 months

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MS, it's ab example. I do not wish to see Exocet in Iranian hands. What I am saying is that you don't phase out an aircraft with one that have similar capacity. Unless for political reasons.

As for example, a refresh of their F4 would have made more sense than buying a large fleet of Su30. They could have concentrated on airsup cap in their new buy.

I am drawing raw examples to show that the renewal of Iran fleet will be done on political grounds primarily. And this shape their future capabilities. This is why it has to be discussed.

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14 years 1 month

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MS, it's ab example. I do not wish to see Exocet in Iranian hands. What I am saying is that you don't phase out an aircraft with one that have similar capacity. Unless for political reasons.
As said, the F1EQs cannot match the FC-1 in capability. Not only because they are a gen older but mainly because IRIAF Mirages are naked and barfoot. So, either you get the ASTRAC upgrade (which they won't) or you can go hunting after obsolete stuff still compatible with the 80s tech.. While moden Exocet is completely unavailable to Iran (and most likely not readily compatible with the EQ), the CM-400AKG is available and already integrated with the Thunder. Why block the renewal of the fleet because of mere eleven Mirages??..

As for example, a refresh of their F4 would have made more sense than buying a large fleet of Su30. They could have concentrated on airsup cap in their new buy.
The problem is availability, again. Refurbishing their F-4s would require access to US made parts.. Why go such lengths just to keep the tired birds flying for a few years more? Even upgrading theiur MiG-29s to SMT would be a questionable, albeit still a much more logical move..

Anyway, it's better to turn the switch and replace the ol' hardware gradually.. The Tomcats and Phantoms, as they are, surely ain't cheap to run..

I am drawing raw examples to show that the renewal of Iran fleet will be done on political grounds primarily. And this shape their future capabilities. This is why it has to be discussed.
I think the technical reasons slowly start to outweigh the political ones. Their fleet really urgently needs an update and it won't happen overnight. Whatever route they choose, the F-4s, F-14s, Su-24s and MiG-29s will still have to soldier for a couple of years..

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11 years 4 months

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The fact is the Iranian fleet is 30+ years old and they need new kit

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12 years 3 months

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The fact is the Iranian fleet is 30+ years old and they need new kit

There are still some MirageIII flying out there ;)

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14 years 1 month

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IRIAF:
F-14As are 37-39 years old
RF-4Es are 45 years old
F-4Es are 43-44 years old
F-4Ds are 46-47 years old
F-5A/Bs are 50 years old
F-5E/Fs are 39-41 years old
MiG-29s were delivered 22-25 years ago
Su-24Ms were delivered 24 years ago