Chinese air power thread 18

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Some very interesting info.

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2212133.html

China ordered 224 D-30KP2 engines from Saturn in July 2016, worth about 660 million USD.

Previously China bought 55 D-30KP2 from 2009-2011, and 184 engines of the type from a contract in September 2011.

Since 2009 China has bought 463 D-30KP2 from Saturn.

looks like they gave up trying to make a domestic engine for their Y-20.

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that Chinese allocation of engines until summer. Transport and bomber fleet using same engine.


https://tiananmenstremendousachievements.wordpress.com/tag/h-6k/
The article says that both Y-20 and H-6K had to use imported Russian D-30KP2 engines, but China has so far only imported 239 D-30KP2s. 41 of them have been used as spare engines for China’s 41 Il-76s with only 198 left, of which 24 have been used for Y-20 prototypes, the known number of which is 6.

The 176 left are not enough for the production of H-6Ks, the known number of which is at least 120 that need 240 D-30KP2s. As China has not purchased or ordered any more D-30KP2 and as WS series engines have been proved usable, China must have used WS-18 on the later batches of H-6Ks it has produced

Profile picture for user QuantumFX

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looks like they gave up trying to make a domestic engine for their Y-20.

Not given up, but validation/certification of WS-20 will take time. D-30KP2 are needed for the 1st generation of Y-20 as well as H-6K and probably spares for the existing Il-76/78/KJ-2000. H-6K require only 2x D-30KP2 but all others require 4x D-30KP2. Building turbofans take time and lot of validation. I remember a well known leaker of Chinese engine development stated the WS-15 for the J-20 would take at least another 10 years to enter final production upon successful completion of high-altitude core testing (if all goes well). High-altitude core testing was supposed to have ended successfully 2008/2009 period.

You can consider the WS-20 to be failure if PRC suddenly puts large orders for Aviadvigatel PS-90 for next generation Y-20.

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J20 Declassicified and Confirmed to Appear on Zhuhai Airshow

The Ministry of Defense of the PRC just released a news udpate confirming J20's appearance on the coming Zhuhai Airshow on 2016/11/1.
Here's the linkage.

http://www.mod.gov.cn/topnews/2016-10/28/content_4754653.htm

The article hasn't been found on the English version of the MOD website.
If i remember correctly, it's also the first time MOD confirms the existence of this type.

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http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2212133.html

China ordered 224 D-30KP2 engines from Saturn in July 2016, worth about 660 million USD.

Since 2009 China has bought 463 D-30KP2 from Saturn.

Here's one interpretation of what it means for the immediate future:

14 original il76, bought from russia decades ago. several second hand il76 (civilian variant) bought sometime by the 2000. (4 of which serve as awacs). 10 more second hand ones bought in recent few years via rosoboronexport. 3 il78 second hand il78 bought from ukraine. Total of 31 il76. Further il76 purchases unlikely due to y-20 coming online.
50-60 H6k produced to date, with production ongoing. One likely option would be to keep the production until all of PLAAF's planes are replaced. That'd mean another 30ish or so airframes. Another option would be to have PLANAF's planes replaced as well, eventually. If so, that'd mean another 30 or so planes. So total of some 90-120 h6k might be expected.

Y20 currently being produced, so far maybe 6-8 airframes, including prototypes.

Assuming old il76 and second hand il76 need at least one set of new engines, which seems likely as engines last less longer than such airframes - that's 31*4 engines for il76 fleet.
plus the h6k fleet - 180 to 240 engines needed.
plus y20 produced so far - lets say 30 engines.

Plus one would need some sort of spare engine capacity. Western engines, as far as i can tell, are usually planned with 20 or percent extra engines. Maybe russian engines follow a different logic, with shorter lifespans, so i'll guesstimate here with just 10% of extra engines.

Total could thus be: 124+180+30= 358 + 35 = ~366 if 90 h6k are planned.
if 120 h6k are planned that goes up to ~426.

Which suggests to me there may be more engines ordered in the future, even if y20 somehow switches to another engine really soon.
Or course, more realistically, y20 will go on being produced with d30kp2 for some more time, a few years at least. Which could easely require up to a 100 additional engines.

If we take into account that h6k are all brand new and will at one point in their life need engine replacement, even more future d30kp2 are going to be needed. Domestic engine variant of d30kp2 for just 200ish engines seems unlikely. And if ws18 was already ready - we wouldn't see these d30kp2 ordered now. So i'd say ws18 engine plans were dropped at some point and h6k fleet may fly with russian made engines until they're retired.

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The Ministry of Defense of the PRC just released a news udpate confirming J20's appearance on the coming Zhuhai Airshow on 2016/11/1.
Here's the linkage.

http://www.mod.gov.cn/topnews/2016-10/28/content_4754653.htm

The article hasn't been found on the English version of the MOD website.
If i remember correctly, it's also the first time MOD confirms the existence of this type.

I wonder if they'll honour us with official numbers for its dimensions during Zhuhai sometime....

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Here's one interpretation of what it means for the immediate future:

14 original il76, bought from russia decades ago. several second hand il76 (civilian variant) bought sometime by the 2000. (4 of which serve as awacs). 10 more second hand ones bought in recent few years via rosoboronexport. 3 il78 second hand il78 bought from ukraine. Total of 31 il76. Further il76 purchases unlikely due to y-20 coming online.
50-60 H6k produced to date, with production ongoing. One likely option would be to keep the production until all of PLAAF's planes are replaced. That'd mean another 30ish or so airframes. Another option would be to have PLANAF's planes replaced as well, eventually. If so, that'd mean another 30 or so planes. So total of some 90-120 h6k might be expected.

Y20 currently being produced, so far maybe 6-8 airframes, including prototypes.

Assuming old il76 and second hand il76 need at least one set of new engines, which seems likely as engines last less longer than such airframes - that's 31*4 engines for il76 fleet.
plus the h6k fleet - 180 to 240 engines needed.
plus y20 produced so far - lets say 30 engines.

Plus one would need some sort of spare engine capacity. Western engines, as far as i can tell, are usually planned with 20 or percent extra engines. Maybe russian engines follow a different logic, with shorter lifespans, so i'll guesstimate here with just 10% of extra engines.

Total could thus be: 124+180+30= 358 + 35 = ~366 if 90 h6k are planned.
if 120 h6k are planned that goes up to ~426.

Which suggests to me there may be more engines ordered in the future, even if y20 somehow switches to another engine really soon.
Or course, more realistically, y20 will go on being produced with d30kp2 for some more time, a few years at least. Which could easely require up to a 100 additional engines.

If we take into account that h6k are all brand new and will at one point in their life need engine replacement, even more future d30kp2 are going to be needed. Domestic engine variant of d30kp2 for just 200ish engines seems unlikely. And if ws18 was already ready - we wouldn't see these d30kp2 ordered now. So i'd say ws18 engine plans were dropped at some point and h6k fleet may fly with russian made engines until they're retired.

that link in your sig is surprisingly entertaining and fair.
but now Turkey and Russia are buddy buddy and willing to bend over for each other. maybe except for the assad thing

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I wonder if they'll honour us with official numbers for its dimensions during Zhuhai sometime....

Y20 will also be presented (one on dislay, the other flying)

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Y20 will also be presented (one on dislay, the other flying)

Yes, but Y-20 was officially disclosed years ago when it made its maiden flight, and Y-20 also attended the last airshow too.

But this is a first for J-20 being "officially" disclosed not to mention making its first public appearance in what is essentially the same event.

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Yes, but Y-20 was officially disclosed years ago when it made its maiden flight, and Y-20 also attended the last airshow too.

But this is a first for J-20 being "officially" disclosed not to mention making its first public appearance in what is essentially the same event.

True. Several drones will also be present : wing loong, CH6 and Cloud shadow

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They are using the same engraved serrated wedges on the trailing surface as on the Rafale. Same technology, this is for sure.

Rafale is the stealthiest of the fourth gen aircraft but j-20 is one generation ahead. it flew 20 years later.
but bacon/jo and other non-chinese always likes to bring down chinese achievements

just like how they are having a field day by saying the j-10 is an extended lavi in this thread
http://forum.keypublishing.com/showthread.php?137868-Israel-s-Lavi-Fighter-Program

no no no, chinese opinions are not correct. only outsider ones. the chinese don't know what they are saying. <- thats how they are reacting

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where you get this information rafale is stealthiest fourth generation aircraft.

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China just bought 224 D-30-KP2 engines for its transport fleet.

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where you get this information rafale is stealthiest fourth generation aircraft.

Claims (1/10th to 1/20th RCS of a MK2, sentence from head of the program in a video), and lots of pilots testimonies (call them tales if you wish)

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where you get this information rafale is stealthiest fourth generation aircraft.

the russians told me

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the russians told me

:highly_amused: :highly_amused: :highly_amused:

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China just bought 224 D-30-KP2 engines for its transport fleet.

Last page dawg.

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the russians told me

nope. they have deep contempt for smaller planes.
plus you have to trust Russian intelligence especially in Middleast for evaluating and buying planes.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/rafale-can-be-shot-down-like-mosquitoes-by-chinese-made-sukhoi-russian-envoy-114101800712_1.html

Rafale can be shot down like 'mosquitoes by Chinese-made Sukhoi': Russian envoy

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China just bought 224 D-30-KP2 engines for its transport fleet.

And there are also reports about a similar contract concerning 100 additional AL-31 - but not mentioning the specific version - since yesterday ... does anyone of our Russian friends have a (sorry to say so) better or more reliable source than this Japanese link ?

http://www.excite.co.jp/News/chn_soc/20161030/Recordchina_20161030007.html

I think the Russian media would not ignore this deal if it is true? ... or will they wait until Zhuhai?

Deino