Franco-German next generation fighter

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9 years

Posts: 72

That sound like Rafale and Eurofighter all over again

It does.

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9 years

Posts: 72


Not really. Rafale was France, Eurofighter UK, Germany, Italy & Spain. So far, the split on the new proposals looks like the UK, Italy & Sweden with Tempest, & France, Germany & Spain with the rival. Completely different split.

the thing is that at this stage, purely political predefinition of the projects, we had all of them together 40 years ago. and the relevant part is that it looks that we will have again two competing models, which is being shown as a complete failure to have a strong European contender in most countries. several European proposals mean American purchases. I think that Airbus is acknowledging this while trying to get the UK in while Dassault has enough sharing with Germany. Politically France and Germany are trying to close ranks but by doing so they are excluding not only the UK which is not that strange in the context of Brexit but also Italy which I think is a mistake. France and Germany really need to integrate the European industry in common projects if they want to be able to compete. What they are trying to do is pretty obscene as the Italians have pointed out.
I honestly don't think France and particularly Dassault is ready for this kind of international collaboration where huge industrial shares have to be allocated to different countries and nothing in their rhetoric suggests that they think in any other thing but making their partners pay and buy for a rafale 5.5. For now Airbus seems to be trying to create bridges with BAE despite the brexit while from france they seem no to want anybody in until the thing is done. I think airbus knows that once the thing is done nobody will want to get in. But anyway it is to early to know how this might look like in a few years from now.

Spain has huge budget constraints, and lets face it, we simply don't use this capabilities, neither do have the political will, or the economic and logistic capability to operate these LHD+F35B in any likely scenario where F35s might be required. The navy certainly has expresed its will for the acquisition of the F35s but there are several aspects that in my opinion make this purchase a bad business:
- Budgets
- Lack of active foreign military policies
- Lack of budget to support even a small carrier group overseas (that is, not so close to our coast that the SpAF couldn't actually do the job)
- Lack of logistics to support that carrier group.
- Lack of industrial benefits of such a purchase (for anyone familiar with spanish un employment rates and the quality of the employment in the country that is a clear factor)
- Need to allocate budget to many other areas not only in the armed forces but in the armada itself

We had the Principe de Asturias an their harriers roughtly 30 years docked in Rota and that's probably what we will get out of the JCI + F35B.
I sincerely believe that for similar investment an evolved and additional batch of S80 submarines to consolidate our currently pitifull submarine capabilities would provide a much better service for the Navy while helping to consolidate Navantia's submarine building capabilities.

It would be nice to have them but it's simply absurd in our situation and I hope that this will be acknowledged when taking the decission. However the chief of the dirección general de armamento y material (basically the person in charge of managing military acquisitions) might have a different view since it comes from the navy and has no problems in possing with a F35B reproduction in spanish colors over his desk (https://www.infodefensa.com/es/2019/03/04/noticia-almte-gonzalez-digam-avion-entrenador-buque-subacuatico-interrogadores-ahora-prioridades.html).

Clearly, the defense budget is tight in Spain. Yet, simple fact is they will need replacements for both the Hornet and Harrier II's. Yet, the NGF won't be available it time to replace them. So, something will have to give....;)

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It does.

I would say not, in the former case it started with a common programme, from which France went out as soon as it gained the knowledge necessary to produce the Rafale (...french).
Now they start from the beginning with two separate programs (instead of three, as Sweden this time is in the Tempest team) and both with a number of partners enough for allow both a consistent initial orders with a certain advantage going to the Fr-De-Es there, than to a real contribution in terms of technology and expertise and in this the case, the advantage of UK-It-Swe is way greater.
All settled then? I would dare to say not, as there are also some problem still lingering and others would surely arise: france would surely ask an absolute control into the definition of design (they didn't even wanted Spain to join) while I expect an abyss would arise between the respective requisites of members of other teams.

Politics will also play a role: Brexit is looming,last election in Italy and the new ones in Spain and for the EU will change a lot of things...

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9 years 7 months

Posts: 4,168

I would say not, in the former case it started with a common programme, from which France went out as soon as it gained the knowledge necessary to produce the Rafale (...french).
Now they start from the beginning with two separate programs (instead of three, as Sweden this time is in the Tempest team) and both with a number of partners enough for allow both a consistent initial orders with a certain advantage going to the Fr-De-Es there, than to a real contribution in terms of technology and expertise and in this the case, the advantage of UK-It-Swe is way greater.
All settled then? I would dare to say not, as there are also some problem still lingering and others would surely arise: france would surely ask an absolute control into the definition of design (they didn't even wanted Spain to join) while I expect an abyss would arise between the respective requisites of members of other teams.

Politics will also play a role: Brexit is looming,last election in Italy and the new ones in Spain and for the EU will change a lot of things...

Went out as soon as... µWhat knowledge they did not already have?

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14 years 1 month

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Neither Sweden or Italy are partners in the UK program

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Both programs are still in the very earliest stages. It remains to be seen who is really committed to them.

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Dassault can be rather arrogant and difficult to deal with.
But they have good reason ( and vast experience ), and at least you know what you are getting involved with.

Airbus, on the other hand, is partnered with the Italian Leonardo in ATR.
For years Leonardo wanted to develop a 100 seat regional jet successor to the ATR-42/72 range of turboprops, while Airbus always stalled them, saying the market wasn't ready, or non-existent. Leonardo was even thinking of developing it on their own, or with another partner.
Fast forward two years, and Airbus does an end-run around Leonardo by buying into our Canadian Bombardier C-series. Which happen to be 100 ( and up ) seat regional jets, added to their Airbus range as the 220, and completely locking Leonardo out of the regional market.( that's what the 'R' in ATR stands for )
How is that for dealing with Airbus.
The Italians, and Leonardo, would be better off dealing with the British, even if they leave the EU.

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Dassault can be rather arrogant and difficult to deal with.
But they have good reason ( and vast experience ), and at least you know what you are getting involved with.

Airbus, on the other hand, is partnered with the Italian Leonardo in ATR.
For years Leonardo wanted to develop a 100 seat regional jet successor to the ATR-42/72 range of turboprops, while Airbus always stalled them, saying the market wasn't ready, or non-existent. Leonardo was even thinking of developing it on their own, or with another partner.
Fast forward two years, and Airbus does an end-run around Leonardo by buying into our Canadian Bombardier C-series. Which happen to be 100 ( and up ) seat regional jets, added to their Airbus range as the 220, and completely locking Leonardo out of the regional market.( that's what the 'R' in ATR stands for )
How is that for dealing with Airbus.
The Italians, and Leonardo, would be better off dealing with the British, even if they leave the EU.

Absolutely, problem is Brexit there or better the mess they are doing of it.
Until it will not be clear the legal framework in which such a deal would operate, no concrete commitment would start.

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Dassault can be rather arrogant and difficult to deal with.
But they have good reason ( and vast experience ), and at least you know what you are getting involved with.

Airbus, on the other hand, is partnered with the Italian Leonardo in ATR.
For years Leonardo wanted to develop a 100 seat regional jet successor to the ATR-42/72 range of turboprops, while Airbus always stalled them, saying the market wasn't ready, or non-existent. Leonardo was even thinking of developing it on their own, or with another partner.
Fast forward two years, and Airbus does an end-run around Leonardo by buying into our Canadian Bombardier C-series. Which happen to be 100 ( and up ) seat regional jets, added to their Airbus range as the 220, and completely locking Leonardo out of the regional market.( that's what the 'R' in ATR stands for )
How is that for dealing with Airbus.
The Italians, and Leonardo, would be better off dealing with the British, even if they leave the EU.


The Bombardier deal wasn't planned, though. It was sheer opportunism, taking advantage of Boeing bribsorrypersuading US legislators to try to destroy Bombardier. And anyway, I thought the Alenia proposals were for a 90-100 seater turboprop. The A220 is a jet, with the smallest being bigger than that, & >80% of orders being for the -300, which typically carries about 140 passengers. Doesn't sound like direct competition.
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Went out as soon as... µWhat knowledge they did not already have?

I'm not saying they have stolen a specific knowledge from one or another: they entered in a common enterprise and once the project reached a point they went out unilaterally and continued all for themselves.
One thing is however 100% certain... they have stolen nothing about engines.

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4 years 1 month

Posts: 156

Spain has huge budget constraints, and lets face it, we simply don't use this capabilities, neither do have the political will, or the economic and logistic capability to operate these LHD+F35B in any likely scenario where F35s might be required. The navy certainly has expresed its will for the acquisition of the F35s but there are several aspects that in my opinion make this purchase a bad business:
- Budgets
- Lack of active foreign military policies
- Lack of budget to support even a small carrier group overseas (that is, not so close to our coast that the SpAF couldn't actually do the job)
- Lack of logistics to support that carrier group.
- Lack of industrial benefits of such a purchase (for anyone familiar with spanish un employment rates and the quality of the employment in the country that is a clear factor)
- Need to allocate budget to many other areas not only in the armed forces but in the armada itself

We had the Principe de Asturias an their harriers roughtly 30 years docked in Rota and that's probably what we will get out of the JCI + F35B.
I sincerely believe that for similar investment an evolved and additional batch of S80 submarines to consolidate our currently pitifull submarine capabilities would provide a much better service for the Navy while helping to consolidate Navantia's submarine building capabilities.

It would be nice to have them but it's simply absurd in our situation and I hope that this will be acknowledged when taking the decission. However the chief of the dirección general de armamento y material (basically the person in charge of managing military acquisitions) might have a different view since it comes from the navy and has no problems in possing with a F35B reproduction in spanish colors over his desk (https://www.infodefensa.com/es/2019/...ioridades.html).

Admiral Urcelay, from few days ago.

https://www.infodefensa.com/es/2019/...r-harrier.html

They are working for get F-35B for Armada and in cooperation with Air force F-35 A.

But F-35B is out of question. It will come 12-15 units for Navy. It does not matter if finally dont come F-35 A for air force. Very clear what he told.

*************

On this year will come new contract for 20-30 EF´s for to replace most old F-18 (after elections surely) because are most fast delivery than F-35, and later (2025-2030) it is possible will come some contract for F-35A for to replace rest of the F-18´s. But F-35 B (12-15 units) for navy will come without any doubt.

New european fighter will come around 2035 for to replace most old EF´s in spanish air force.

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9 years 9 months

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Admiral Urcelay, from few days ago.

https://www.infodefensa.com/es/2019/...r-harrier.html

They are working for get F-35B for Armada and in cooperation with Air force F-35 A.

But F-35B is out of question. It will come 12-15 units for Navy. It does not matter if finally dont come F-35 A for air force. Very clear what he told.

*************

On this year will come new contract for 20-30 EF´s for to replace most old F-18 (after elections surely) because are most fast delivery than F-35, and later (2025-2030) it is possible will come some contract for F-35A for to replace rest of the F-18´s. But F-35 B (12-15 units) for navy will come without any doubt.

New european fighter will come around 2035 for to replace most old EF´s in spanish air force.

Why not create a joint air force / navy unit, flying core strategic missions on Spanish carrier (med and shore) and find some place on other Navies flatops to go joint (Italy, UK, USMC, Asia)? It's not like a Bee (F35B) couldn't cover all the Spanish peninsula. Increasing the number of Bee to match a well balanced ratio of the level needed by the Airforce will magically creates some room for savings...

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4 years 1 month

Posts: 156

Why not create a joint air force / navy unit, flying core strategic missions on Spanish carrier (med and shore) and find some place on other Navies flatops to go joint (Italy, UK, USMC, Asia)? It's not like a Bee (F35B) couldn't cover all the Spanish peninsula. Increasing the number of Bee to match a well balanced ratio of the level needed by the Airforce will magically creates some room for savings...

Well, its an option, but i do not like really.

F-35 A is cheaper than F-35B, it has bigger weapons bay and bigger combat radius, so for Air force is better choose F-35 A.

F-35A and F-35B to share around 60-70% of the pieces, so in any case it will have good synergies.

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so what's the current design. NGF or FCAS?

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9 years 7 months

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FCAS is a system of systems. Includes Rafale, Euromale, NGF, S/A missiles, next gen ammunitions etc.
FCAS-DP was a UCAV drone program between UK (dropped out) and France.
NGF (next fighter platform) well be led by DA.

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Posts: 72

Admiral Urcelay, from few days ago.

https://www.infodefensa.com/es/2019/...r-harrier.html

They are working for get F-35B for Armada and in cooperation with Air force F-35 A.

But F-35B is out of question. It will come 12-15 units for Navy. It does not matter if finally dont come F-35 A for air force. Very clear what he told.

*************

On this year will come new contract for 20-30 EF´s for to replace most old F-18 (after elections surely) because are most fast delivery than F-35, and later (2025-2030) it is possible will come some contract for F-35A for to replace rest of the F-18´s. But F-35 B (12-15 units) for navy will come without any doubt.

New european fighter will come around 2035 for to replace most old EF´s in spanish air force.

I was well aware of Urcelays comments at the moment of making mine. Only I don't see who in the Spanish government will authorize the bill for the F35B plus I don't consider this embarked wing as a particularly interesting capability when considering Spanish logistics, budgets, international policies and approach to conflicts. Now, in here (https://publicaciones.defensa.gob.es/revista-espanola-de-defensa-359-revistas-pdf.html) you can download the Spanish defense magazine and when taking a look to page 44 where FCAS is considered, the information there is that 40 Eurofighter have been requested by the air force to substitute 80 F18s until FCAS arrives, no mention whatsoever to the F35. Plus in a recent comment in this regard what was stated was that F35 is the reference but that Eurofighter is the best option for Spain being that the reason why the Air Force has requested more Eurofighter. Which basically means"we would like to have F35 but for us (air force) the Eurofighter covers the needs plus we understand industrial considerations"
Not that I believe that F35 doors are completely closed in Spain, nor that I wouldn't welcome a wing of F35A for the air force, but with current policies and budgets I think it is very unlikely to get them in the foreseeable future. FCAS and 40 more Eurofighter, however, are over the table as of now. Ones is the long term bet, the other the short term for substituting F18s and maintaining Spanish Eurofighter FAL open.

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I was well aware of Urcelays comments at the moment of making mine. Only I don't see who in the Spanish government will authorize the bill for the F35B plus I don't consider this embarked wing as a particularly interesting capability when considering Spanish logistics, budgets, international policies and approach to conflicts. Now, in here (https://publicaciones.defensa.gob.es...istas-pdf.html) you can download the Spanish defense magazine and when taking a look to page 44 where FCAS is considered, the information there is that 40 Eurofighter have been requested by the air force to substitute 80 F18s until FCAS arrives, no mention whatsoever to the F35. Plus in a recent comment in this regard what was stated was that F35 is the reference but that Eurofighter is the best option for Spain being that the reason why the Air Force has requested more Eurofighter. Which basically means"we would like to have F35 but for us (air force) the Eurofighter covers the needs plus we understand industrial considerations"
Not that I believe that F35 doors are completely closed in Spain, nor that I wouldn't welcome a wing of F35A for the air force, but with current policies and budgets I think it is very unlikely to get them in the foreseeable future. FCAS and 40 more Eurofighter, however, are over the table as of now. Ones is the long term bet, the other the short term for substituting F18s and maintaining Spanish Eurofighter FAL open.

If you read what Admiral Urcelay told, is that F-35B is out of discussion. It can have more debate about F-35A but not about F-35B coming to Spain on next future. And it is logical, we have islands and it is necesary anfibious force with naval fighters.

And other thing...EF is expensive than F-35A. So, When you tell, that Spain can not buy F-35A because is expensive it does not have any sense to buy more expensive EF tranche 3. This is not logical and this is a political decition anyway.

The reason for get more EF, also political is because need get fast deliveries for to replace older F-18, and it is not possible buying now F-35A.

About what is talking Urcelay is about to buy F-35A around middle of next century when the last F-18 will need replacement, not now. You are talking about diferente things.

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If you read what Admiral Urcelay told, is that F-35B is out of discussion. It can have more debate about F-35A but not about F-35B coming to Spain on next future. And it is logical, we have islands and it is necesary anfibious force with naval fighters.

And other thing...EF is expensive than F-35A. So, When you tell, that Spain can not buy F-35A because is expensive it does not have any sense to buy more expensive EF tranche 3. This is not logical and this is a political decition anyway.

The reason for get more EF, also political is because need get fast deliveries for to replace older F-18, and it is not possible buying now F-35A.

About what is talking Urcelay is about to buy F-35A around middle of next century when the last F-18 will need replacement, not now. You are talking about diferente things.

The fly-away unit price per T3 Eurofighter is probably not much different compared to an F-35. The primary cost driver for the F-35 compared to the Eurofighter would be the establishment of the support infrastructure and logistics in general. Those costs are significant and are the typical reason why the "system price" is often twice as high or higher than the fly-away price. There are ofcourse other factors such as the overall number of aircraft and how they are spread over units and airfields. Most cost comparisons are apples and oranges as the detailed cost breakdown is usually missing and as different offers are mostly not comparable.

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And other thing...EF is expensive than F-35A. So, When you tell, that Spain can not buy F-35A because is expensive it does not have any sense to buy more expensive EF tranche 3. .

Pick the costs of acquiring some fourty Eurofighter T3´s, for the Esercito (or the Luftwaffe) then multiply by two... or three. That would be the cost of implementing an entirely new aircraft into their fleet. The Phoon is already the backbone of their fleets, the suport, training, logistics are already in place.

About what is talking Urcelay is about to buy F-35A around middle of next century when the last F-18 will need replacement, not now.

The possible acquisition of F-35A´s by the Ejercito Del Aire "around middle of next century" looks very much dead.
Unless a) Airbus gets out of Spain or b) the SCAF program crashes and burns or c) an entirely new Spanish Government makes a very radical U turn, the Spanish Air Force wont see Dave A in their colours.
The Navy is trying to maintain some sort of hope for their fighter force, good luck, they are going to need it.