Friction between China and Japan to lead to war?

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Lately, there has been friction over drilling platforms in the E. China Sea, and now the Japanese SDF White Paper explicitly lists concern over the rise of Chinese power. Will we see another potential conflict between the two asian nations in the next 10 years?

And to tie the air force into this, how much of a threat will the PLAAF pose to the JSDAF in ten years' time?

Date Posted: 09-Jul-2004

JANE'S DEFENCE WEEKLY - JULY 14, 2004

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Japan urged to adopt a broader military role
SHINICHI KIYOTANI JDW Special Correspondent
Tokyo

Japan's 2004 Defence White Paper calls for the Japanese Self-Defence Force (JSDF) to be transformed from its current invasion defence posture to a "more functional force" better able to deal with a range of threats such as terrorism, weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles.

Publication of the 480-page document coincided with the 50th anniversary of the re-establishment of Japan's armed forces after the Second World War. Since then the JSDF has been limited by the constitution to a purely defensive role and the question of a broader military role for Japan, such as the deployment of troops to Iraq earlier this year, continues to provoke controversy.

The White Paper states that Japan must be ready for such missions: "If a nation collapses after having been undermined by a dictatorship or an international terrorist organisation, it is the duty of the international community to assist in its reconstruction."

Japan's defence budget for the current Fiscal Year, ¥4.9 trillion ($44.47 billion), ranks it as the third-largest military spender behind the US and the UK but the paper notes that if an accurate figure could be established for China it would exceed Japanese spending.

"China has been modernising its nuclear and missile forces as well as its naval and air forces. Careful deliberation should go into determining whether the objective of this modernisation exceeds the scope necessary for the defence of China, and future developments in this area merit special attention," says the paper.

It notes other threats in the region. "Taken together with its suspected nuclear weapons programme, North Korea's develop- ment and deployment of ballistic missiles constitute a destabilising factor for the international community as a whole and have generated intense anxiety," states the paper.

The White Paper says that the armed forces must be restructured to undertake "diversifying roles". A sweeping review of the armed forces is planned for completion before year-end. "The SDF must establish a joint operational posture linking SDF units organically so that they carry out their missions swiftly and effectively," states the White Paper.

The existing Joint Staff Council, which is limited primarily to policy matters, will be replaced by a joint staff that will also have a command function. The number of personnel will be increased from 350 to 650 so that it can function as an integrated triservice headquarters. The new headquarters, tentatively known as the Joint Staff Office, is planned to be operational in 2005.

With a shrinking defence budget, the White Paper notes that Japan will "modify the scale of its forces" but stresses they will be better equipped for a range of missions including international deployments.

The White Paper mentions a number of force enhancements already under way or planned:

* Development of ballistic missile defence capabilities;

* Introduction of a helicopter carrier with the capability to serve as a flagship. The design is still officially designated as a helicopter-carrying destroyer (DDH) and officials insist that it will only operate helicopters;

* Fielding of AH-64D Apache Longbows to replace the AH-1S attack helicopter;

* Acquisition of a new class of submarine equipped with an air- independent propulsion system;

* Introduction of the MCH-101 helicopter to replace the MH-53E in naval service;

* Modernisation of the F-15J fighter fleet;

* The introduction of precision- guided bombs including the US Joint Direct Attack Munition;

* Fielding of a new medium-range surface-to-air missile to replace the HAWK in army service;

* Improving the army's nuclear, biological and chemical detection and warning capabilities; and

* Development of a fast patrol boat in co-operation with Japan's Coast Guard.

RELATED ARTICLES:

'Japan confronts threats issue' (JDW 3 September 2003)

'Japan reveals more detail of new carrier' (JDW 17 September 2003)

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Original post

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20 years 7 months

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Currently Japan is stronger, why? It's navy is much stronger than the Chinese, or the South Korean or Taiwan's Navies even combined. The Japanese Navy is not only large but very sophisticated with some of the best ASW capabilities in the World. Having that said, the Japanese AF is no joke either, perhaps the strongest in E. Asia. Although China has many more Flankers and much bigger AF now than anyone in Asia, the Japanese have over 200 F-15s with AWACS(something China does not have).

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24 years 2 months

Posts: 2,713

Currently Japan is stronger, why? It's navy is much stronger than the Chinese, or the South Korean or Taiwan's Navies even combined. The Japanese Navy is not only large but very sophisticated with some of the best ASW capabilities in the World. Having that said, the Japanese AF is no joke either, perhaps the strongest in E. Asia. Although China has many more Flankers and much bigger AF now than anyone in Asia, the Japanese have over 200 F-15s with AWACS(something China does not have).

Ah, but the question is, what about in ten years' time? :) There is no doubt that aside from the USN presence in the Pacific, the JSDF is the most powerful force there.

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20 years 10 months

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They seem to be a preparing their national defense for something big...(whether its from North Korea or China is anyone's guess)...

Japan plans US ABM tie

Flight International
2-8 Dec 2003

Japan wants to manufacture elements of an advanced anti-ballistic missile (ABM) in an un-named joint US-Japanese team. The missile has been studied since 1999 and would replace the Raytheon Standard SM-3 ABM due for initial purchase in 2004. Service entry would not be for several years, writes Brendan Sobie.

Earlier this year, Japan unveiled a plan to begin purchasing ballistic missile defence systems as part of a defence strategy likely to result in reduced spending for military aircraft.

The Japan Defence Agency (JDA) says it is seeking ¥142 billion ($1.3 billion) in the 2004 budget to acquire US-manufactured missiles and another ¥81 billion for development of the joint navy theatre-wide defence system. This is expected to be approved in the next few weeks.

The JDA has already spent around ¥156 billion on the missile research programme over the past five years and would like production to involve Japanese aerospace companies. A US manufacturer would probably retain prime contractorship, with Japanese companies supplying components. Japan may exempt the missile from its weapons exports ban to enable US deployment.

Japan is preparing to purchase SM-3 ship-based and Lockheed Martin Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) ground-based anti-ballistic missiles over the next two to three years, for deployment in three to five years.

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24 years 2 months

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The latest news from JDW is that Russia and the US are to also cooperate on ABM technology, leaving the only other country out....e.g. China. My bet's on the PRC rather than the DPRK.

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20 years 10 months

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I didn't know about Russia's participation (or possible participation) in the ABM program! :eek:

I doubt that will happen, especially since China will be left out...while Taiwan is probably going to be let in.

Both Russia and China oppose Taiwan's participation...

Russia, China Oppose Extending Any ABM Shield to Taiwan

Associated Press Writer
posted: 09:33 am ET
30 March 2000

ALMATY, Kazakhstan (AP) -- Russia backs China's opposition to any international missile defense system that would cover Taiwan, according to a statement released Thursday by the countries' defense ministers.

The defense ministers of China, Russia, and the former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan met in the Kazakh capital Astana to discuss military cooperation within an alliance the five countries formed in Shanghai, China in 1996.

A communique adopted at the conference stated the five nations back China's opposition to any "plans for drawing Taiwan into [a] regional antiballistic missile system" (ABM) of any form, the ITAR-Tass news agency reported.

The United States is researching a theater missile defense system (TMD) with Japan. China fears TMD technology could be passed to Taiwan, allowing the island to defend itself against Chinese missiles. Although the two sides have been ruled separately for decades, Beijing views Taiwan as a province that must be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary.

"The deployment of a regional ABM system in the Asian-Pacific region can result in the upsetting of stability and security in the region," the communique said, according to ITAR-Tass.

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19 years 11 months

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Ah, but the question is, what about in ten years' time? :) There is no doubt that aside from the USN presence in the Pacific, the JSDF is the most powerful force there.

Even by 2014, the JMSDF will still be qualitatively superior, and still have a larger number of more capable, better armed and protected, frigates and destroyers. The Japanese MPA force, and their SSK fleet are also formidable, and lets not forget the training either. China and the PLAN still has a LONG way to go before it can field a fleet as good as even that of Japan, let alone the US.

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20 years 7 months

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Yes, I mean the Japanese probably have one of the largest and most sophisitcated ASW capabilities in the World, I mean just one example is that they operate no less than 100 P-3Cs which are due to be upgraded in the future. I mean around 200 F-15s to be upgraded in the future, probably 100++ F-2s and despite it's large cost and etc it's still probably going to be superior to the J-10 or the Ching Quo. They have many more AWACS and etc than Taiwan and South Korea combined and China has nothing.

I do agree, Japan will be hard tocatch up to.

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Very interesting topic .. unlikely scenario, but interesting. I feel you guys should take it to the Navy forum.

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Mostly a naval affair.

Depending on the people in charge in Taiwan, territorial dispute between China and Japan would involve Taiwan also. For years, the people who fought hardest over the Senkaku-Daioyutai islands from the Chinese side were people from Taiwan and Hong Kong not the mainland.

Of course, an independent Taiwan who would give up claims to Kinmen and Matsu would probably give up Chinese claims to Daioyutai and the Spratlies, even though Taiwan holds the largest of the Spratlies and the only one with a reasonable airstrip.

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24 years 2 months

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Currently Japan is stronger, why? It's navy is much stronger than the Chinese, or the South Korean or Taiwan's Navies even combined. The Japanese Navy is not only large but very sophisticated with some of the best ASW capabilities in the World. Having that said, the Japanese AF is no joke either, perhaps the strongest in E. Asia. Although China has many more Flankers and much bigger AF now than anyone in Asia, the Japanese have over 200 F-15s with AWACS(something China does not have).

Those F-15s don't shoot ARH BVRAAMs, while a substantial portion of China's Flankers do. No direct evidence that AAM-4 is operational and no AMRAAMs either. No direct evidence that SD-10 is operational but they won't be directly fitted on the Flankers not yet anyway (J-8IIs, J-10s and FC-1s get them first), but we do know they got R-77s for sure. Those AA-10E Alamo-Es (R-27E with 120km) also got better range than Sparrows, not to mention many of them got thermal seekers for a totally passive approach. And when the planes merge, we will bet on the Flankers not just being more maneuverable, but they got the unfair advantage of helmet sights and wide off boresight locking R-73 Archers, while the best the Japanese could muster are AAM-3s which is somewhat better than an AIM-9L.

Just on paper, the tables have long changed.

And China is clearly developing AWACS already, with at least one prototype (maybe more) flying. Better yet, it does have an extensive GCI network, and many of the Chinese planes, the Su-30s in particular and maybe the JH-7s, could have a tactical group datalinking of their own.

However, those disputed islands like in the Ryuku chain, and there is something called Taiwan in the middle before Chinese planes could get to them. So it's not a mainland Chinese issue, but a Taiwanese one. It was Taiwan originally making those claims, not China; China went along for the ride with the logic whatever Taiwan claims, it should belong to China too.

So its more of a comparison between the ROCAF and the JASDF. But what can 200 Eagles do with Sparrows, against nearly 340 F-16s, Mirage 2000s and F-CK-1s with ARH missiles like AMRAAMs, MICAs and TK-2s? Those AMRAAMs are block Cs too, the best in the world. Japan has AWACs, but so does Taiwan. Without a direct air to air advantage, all those AWACS can do is vector the Eagles to certain doom in a massed Viper's pit. The Japanese F-2s and F-4s won't make a difference either; they don't have ARH, and I doubt given the flight problems of the F-2, you're not going to mix it up with a Mirage 2000-5 or an F-16A MLU.

The JSMDF is another story, but once the air cover is gone, it won't be pretty on the ships even on the AEGIS equipped Kongo class destroyers. it should be noted that Taiwan's Kidds could actually get newer missiles---only two of the Kongo class got Block III Standards, that all four Kidds would have, and the Kidds would have Harpoon 2s. Personally I don't understand some of the decisions that went into the AEGIS/Standard systems. While magnificent, it's mostly on an radar illuminator with semi-active homers like Sparrows. The whole system seems crying out loud to "ECM me".

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So its more of a comparison between the ROCAF and the JASDF. But what can 200 Eagles do with Sparrows, against nearly 340 F-16s, Mirage 2000s and F-CK-1s with ARH missiles like AMRAAMs, MICAs and TK-2s? Those AMRAAMs are block Cs too, the best in the world. Japan has AWACs, but so does Taiwan. Without a direct air to air advantage, all those AWACS can do is vector the Eagles to certain doom in a massed Viper's pit. The Japanese F-2s and F-4s won't make a difference either; they don't have ARH, and I doubt given the flight problems of the F-2, you're not going to mix it up with a Mirage 2000-5 or an F-16A MLU.

Now that is true. We've discussed this many times. TW currently has the most number of ARH capable A/C in asia (F-16, M2K-5, F-CK-1) (330+). Thats even more than Israel (Erez said israel has 200+ ARH capable A/C). And they also have 3 different types ARH missiles TC-2, MICA & AMRAAM-C. Thats allot more than what japan currently has. Actually, do they have any? (in service I mean)

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Speaking of the F-15s of the JASDF, does anyone have pics of any of them with Sparrows fitted? I have never been able to find any.

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24 years 2 months

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Lately, there has been friction over drilling platforms in the E. China Sea, and now
the Japanese SDF White Paper explicitly lists concern over the rise of Chinese power. Will we
see another potential conflict between the two asian nations in the next 10 years?

E. China Sea drilling platforms:

Went through that report briefly myself. But, more than just frictions
over Japan's drilling in what's deemed as the green line (Or was it the blue line?), there has also been disputes
over the Island chain known as Ryukus, or something like that anyhow.

Regardless, Japan has always been a big mouth in the region because
she has always used the US as a shield, or as a bargaining chip, when dealing with
the Chinese. Therefore such actions by Japan is no surprise whatsoever.

More than that, I think everyone in the region does that (Uses the US
as bargaining chip) because of America's military might in the region. But, these
tit for tats shouldn't lead to war because, the Chinese, even in the military status they're in today,
will not risk intimidating the US because "the US is its bread and butter".

I mean aside from the odd whinnings
and complaints, will you dual it out with the guy who signs your paychecks?
I don't think any of us are that brave.

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20 years 7 months

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Wow, my bad, I thought Japanese F-4Js and F-15s as well as F-2s were all equipped with AIM-120. That would change the scenario heavily. Does Japan plan to equip it's fighter with AIM-120?

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Wow, my bad, I thought Japanese F-4Js and F-15s as well as F-2s were all equipped with AIM-120. That would change the scenario heavily. Does Japan plan to equip it's fighter with AIM-120?

Apparently not. They have this homegrown thing complex and would only want something homegrown like their XAAM-4 which I have not verified yet to be operational (taking too long already).

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Has US already designated Japan as one of the chosen recipients of the Raptor? By 2014 I expect a few of those would have changed hands.

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Has US already designated Japan as one of the chosen recipients of the Raptor? By 2014 I expect a few of those would have changed hands.

No. Knowing Japan, they would rather build one of their own first.

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No. Knowing Japan, they would rather build one of their own first.

That might be the case, but unless they have something in the works fairly soon - or better, now - I seriously doubt they will be able to field a working home grown 5th generation type to start replacing the F-15 fleet by 2020. They might not have much choice but to co-develop something, again.

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China is already No.1 investment destination which will have multiple effect in coming

years. By 2014 Japan will become irrelvant market wise and the same is true for

Military strength. I can't believe that Japan can develop 5Th generation fighter on

current budget or buy from US. They will have to substantially increase the budget

which there chronic budget deficits cannot allow.

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Does anyone know what the status of the F-2 is? Last I heard it was being tested but that was several years ago. Has it entered operational service yet, or are the F-1's continuing to soldier on?