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By: - 5th March 2006 at 01:35 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The Strategypage site has a few comments about the possibility of the Venezuelan nut job Hugo Chavez attempting to drive the Dutch out of their Carribean islands.Could the Dutch mount a successful defence of their island-holdings given their proximity to Venezuela even if they were given time to position forces?
The article is available at:
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htiw/articles/20060301.aspx
Sauron
Have you forgotten about NATO?
It is a fair to say that a Falklands-type scenario wouldn't be repeated without full NATO intervention.
In any event, Chavez seems to be more intent on corrupting elections, corrupting neighboring regimes and supporting narco-terrorists as his proxies.
By: - 5th March 2006 at 03:05 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Not even Chavez would be stupid enough to give Mr Bush that kind of excuse.
By: - 5th March 2006 at 04:20 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Sorry national territories located outside Europe are not subject to the NATO mutual defense treaties...
So no other NATO country would have to intervene in this case but sure the US would love to use it as an excuse for an attack against Chaves....
Regards,
Hammer
Have you forgotten about NATO?It is a fair to say that a Falklands-type scenario wouldn't be repeated without full NATO intervention.
In any event, Chavez seems to be more intent on corrupting elections, corrupting neighboring regimes and supporting narco-terrorists as his proxies.
By: - 5th March 2006 at 08:59 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Th Dutch have an excellent air force, including KDC-10As. This would make it possible to locate F-16AM/BMs to the islands within a day or two. Besides that, the Dutch are a worthwhile ally of the USA in the War on Tarrorism. Sure, the USA would come to help in such a case.
By: - 5th March 2006 at 09:36 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The Dutch also have Subs don't forget. I suspect that this would be a situation that a way would be found for the UK to assist. The Dutch and the UK cooperate very closely on many things, specifically naval .
By: - 5th March 2006 at 09:37 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
If Chavez tried to take over the Dutch islands in the Caribbean, I'd hope that the UN would be all over his case. Which, ultimately, would probably lead to US military action against Venezuela under a UNSCR banner.
By: - 5th March 2006 at 10:21 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
No real threat. But who has some intrest to create a new threat to step in?!
I do not see, that the link is from the Netherlands!
By: - 5th March 2006 at 10:26 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Even if the US did not intervene, the UK would, and the UK would bring a lot to the table - probably Ocean and Illustious/Ark Royal, and some Marines. The UK could also provide tankers, transports, subs and special forces. The Anglo-Dutch relationship is very strong, and Venezuela would be very foolish to think that the Dutch would just roll over and let them invade!
By: - 5th March 2006 at 11:36 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
If this did come to pass, which just isn't likely IMO,and the US couldn't find a way to get involved directly,then I'd imagine they'd support the Dutch in any other way they could, such as basing rights, transports,tankers,AWACS, satellite imagery etc............
In short,it'd be a surefire way for Chavez to get his military to take a hammering
By: - 5th March 2006 at 12:47 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
First, does anybody have any links to the assertions about Chavez' behaviour as described on strategy page? (For example, articles of reputable newspapers quoting the man?) When I search Lexis Nexus Academic, which contains hundreds of the world's major newspaper and magazines, I do not find anything. Neither have I read anything in Dutch newspapers concerning this issue.
Second, what Dutch islands are we exactly talking about? Only (what we call in Holland) the down wind islands (i.e. Curacao, Aruba and Bonaire) which lie just in front of Venezuala or also the far more distant upwind islands (i.e. Saba, St. Eustatius and partially French St. Maarten)?
Third, what could Venezuela possibly do politically, economically or militarily? Pressure its heavy crude buyers to force the Netherlands to abandon the islands?
By: - 5th March 2006 at 14:56 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
I think the Durch could count on a large sclae european support in that case. IK, France surely. Belgium, Italy and Spain likely. And perhaps even the Germans would decide to sent an army hospital or two to the next secure airport in the region.
By: - 5th March 2006 at 15:19 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
If this did come to pass, which just isn't likely IMO,and the US couldn't find a way to get involved directly,then I'd imagine they'd support the Dutch in any other way they could, such as basing rights, transports,tankers,AWACS, satellite imagery etc............In short,it'd be a surefire way for Chavez to get his military to take a hammering
The US have anti drug planes on the islands, including F15s, F16s and I believe even AWACS. There is no doubt in my mind that the US will use these assets if an attack where to happen. As mentioned before the Dutch are a mayor ally in the war against terrorism. On top of that, if one US plane gets a scratch during the hostilities it could already be interpreted as an act of war. I do not think Bush would pass such an opportunity of removing such a pain in the ass!
If the US would be unwilling to help, we ourselves also have a lot of pretty good assets. In particular the HMS Rotterdam amphibious assault ship will be usefull, but also the large fleet of warships and subs (I heard our navy is similarly sized to Canada's, not much of a feat perhaps but still...). Marines, ships and aircraft are stationed at the islands as well. Probably not enough to last the war, but enough to last the first few days while reinforcements are flown/shipped in.
The KDC10s will bring be able to shuttle planes to St. Maarten, St. Eustasius etc and from there by ship to the war zone. Of course if the situation is safe enough and asuming the runways are not destroyed or blocked landing at Curacao will be possible as well.
Remember also the Dutch F16s stationed in Goose Bay and Nevada (or was it Colorado?). You can bet that they will be due south even before local ATC realise what is happening. ;)
It will no doubt be painfull and costly, but I have every confidence that we could mount an effective counterstrike and retake the islands. Once that is done I do not think we would go further. Attacks on Venezuela itself I would consider unlikely. Unless there where massive casualties on our side I do not think the politicians would commit to it. Quite frankly, I hope they do not.
By: - 5th March 2006 at 17:17 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The question is: should we???
There are plenty of other places to dive....
If this question is anwsered positivly, then the next question is: Do we have the nerve to pull something like this off???
By: - 5th March 2006 at 18:16 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The real question is: is Chazev trying to be macho (i.e. talking big, but will not walk the walk), or is he stupid (i.e. stupid enough to try it). If he really does it, then he will rapidly learn to regret it - if you attack the Netherlands, then you are attacking the UK (and not just in the NATO sense).
By: - 5th March 2006 at 21:25 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The real question is: is Chazev trying to be macho (i.e. talking big, but will not walk the walk), or is he stupid (i.e. stupid enough to try it). If he really does it, then he will rapidly learn to regret it - if you attack the Netherlands, then you are attacking the UK (and not just in the NATO sense).
Since there are a few French islands in the Antilles, including one shared with the Dutch (previously mentioned by someone), the French might consider it an undesirable precedent & weigh in with help for the Dutch. The use of their islands, perhaps? Or CdG, Foudre, Siroco - and could Mistral be available? :diablo:
The UK has already been mentioned as taking a dim view of such adventures involving our good friends.
In the case of the Falklands, the Argentineans could at least lay out a good case (though IMO it was obsolete, having been overriden by 150 years of unchallenged British possession & settlement) that the islands had been theirs, had been taken from them by force, & that they had never ceded them or recognised British ownership of them. The Netherlands Antilles, on the other hand, have the same status as other European Caribbean islands: they were formally ceded at some point by Spain, long before Venezuelan independence was ever thought of, & they've been recognised as Dutch by everyone ever since. There has never been any Venezuelan ownership of, occupation of, or internationally recognised claim to, any of the Dutch islands.
By: - 5th March 2006 at 22:05 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
"Argentineans could at least lay out a god case"
hmmmmm....a slip of a keyboard or did you really mean the Argentinians had religious backing...??? ;-)
By: - 6th March 2006 at 11:32 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
"Argentineans could at least lay out a god case"hmmmmm....a slip of a keyboard or did you really mean the Argentinians had religious backing...??? ;-)
Oops! Finger trouble corrected . . :D
By: - 6th March 2006 at 12:28 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
I think the Durch could count on a large sclae european support in that case. IK, France surely. Belgium, Italy and Spain likely. And perhaps even the Germans would decide to sent an army hospital or two to the next secure airport in the region.
ummm
so it means Dutch can not fight alone without Help from other countires!!
By: - 6th March 2006 at 16:14 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
RE: Could the Dutch defend their Caribbean Islands?
It would greatly depend on how the take-over is done. If it is through the ballot box that is one thing, if it through an armed take-over its another.
In the case of the Falkland/Malvinas Islands, the people on the islands were British decent. Argentina was two hundred miles away is another issue that would be a lot different. How the Organization of American States (OAS) feels is another aspect that has to be considered. The fact that Argentina invaded the islands and that none or very few citizens wanted to be part of Argentina made a big impact to the OAS. In this case, the will of the people will be very important.
If you remember the Falkland/Malvinas Islands, then you remember America's aid to Britain was limited to satellite surveilence and the usage of the Accention Islands.
No carrier battle group, no tankers, or anything else from America. The French AF provided Mirage jets in a two week "Red Flag" type of exercise to train the Harrier pilots on the best tactics in ACM. The Harrier pilots caught up with the fleet at Accention Island.
IMO, the Dutch military could not do it the way the Royal Navy did. No air support, a fleet that is not designed for power projection means the Netherlands would have to depend on the UN.
Adrian
Posts: 1,404
By: Sauron - 5th March 2006 at 01:27
The Strategypage site has a few comments about the possibility of the Venezuelan nut job Hugo Chavez attempting to drive the Dutch out of their Caribbean islands.
Could the Dutch mount a successful defence of their island-holdings given their proximity to Venezuela even if they were given time to position forces?
The article is available at:
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htiw/articles/20060301.aspx
Sauron